Deep underground in the ruins of Rafah in southern Gaza, the war is not over.
Scores of Hamas fighters have split into separate cells and are holed up in underground tunnels behind Israeli military lines as mediators try to find a solution that won’t upset a month-long ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
The question of how to deal with up to 200 Hamas militants in the Israeli-occupied territory of Gaza is more than just a tactical problem for the Israeli military. This is a delicate diplomatic issue and there is no clear solution.
These cells have been fortifying themselves inside these tunnels since a ceasefire divided Gaza along the so-called yellow line a month ago. While occupying territory east of that line, Hamas is reasserting power west of it.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that he has no intention of simply letting Hamas forces leave the tunnels and return to Hamas-held areas of Gaza. Hamas said its militants would never surrender their weapons.
The Trump administration has urged Israel to move toward some workable solution, and Trump’s son-in-law, U.S. Special Envoy Jared Kushner, raised the issue in a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week, two Israeli officials said.
“The Americans want to take the next step and close the Rafa prisoner file,” one of the people said.
The second phase of the ceasefire includes the creation of an international security force in Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, and the further withdrawal of Israeli forces. Every element requires difficult negotiations with multiple countries, and Hamas militants in Gaza are another piece of an increasingly difficult diplomatic puzzle.
Another person said there was a plan to forcefully return the militants to a third country, with Turkey also being considered as an option. However, such a solution has not materialized.
Throughout the week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued several denials regarding various reports regarding the release of what Israel considers a terrorist organization. “The prime minister did not commit to the American side the release of the Rafah prisoners,” a senior Israeli official said in a statement on Tuesday, adding hours later that “contrary to reports, there is no agreed solution.”
Without solutions, cells are like ticking time bombs. With little or no access to food and water, Hamas militants are left with a simple choice: surrender or fight. “Hamas doesn’t even know how many people are still alive,” Mohammad Shehada, a Gaza expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, previously told CNN.
And this impasse has already proven to be a threat to the overall ceasefire that took effect on October 10th.
It is likely that these isolated forces, removed from Hamas’s command and control, were responsible for recent attacks on Israeli forces that provoked massive Israeli retaliation and twice threatened a cease-fire.
On October 19, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in Rafah, Israel launched an airstrike that killed at least 44 Palestinians. Just a week later, another Israeli soldier was killed in Rafah, and an Israeli airstrike killed more than 100 Palestinians, including dozens of children.
In the current environment, diplomacy is stuck between the first and second phases of a cease-fire, with neither Israel nor Hamas making any moves.
Hamas’ military wing issued a statement on Sunday saying: “There is no word of encircling or handing over the enemy to the enemy.” “We place the responsibility on the mediators and they must find a solution to ensure the continuation of the ceasefire,” the al-Qassam Brigades said.
In the absence of a solution, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) clashed with these Hamas cells underground. Twice in just a few hours, the IDF said on Wednesday that its forces were working to “dismantle underground infrastructure” when they identified “four terrorists” in Israeli-occupied territory. In both cases Israeli forces opened fire.
The Israel Defense Forces said the action was in accordance with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement that allows for the destruction of military facilities and tunnel infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. However, Hamas views this as a clear violation of the 20-point plan.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already under pressure from the Israeli right to reject any deal that would allow the militants safe passage into Hamas-held territory. On Tuesday, former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman told X: “Terrorists who kill IDF soldiers after a ceasefire should have only two options: surrender and imprisonment or the death penalty.”
This political pressure limits realistic options for an acceptable solution, with Netanyahu aware that he will face criticism if he is seen as giving in to Hamas demands.
Under the US plan, Hamas militants could be granted amnesty if they lay down their weapons and strive for “peaceful coexistence.”
While the problem of underground extremism alone is unlikely to derail the entire ceasefire effort, the United States is putting significant effort and political capital into ensuring the plan moves forward, creating another difficult hurdle for mediators trying to keep the ceasefire in place.
