US President Donald Trump’s decision to ignore this year’s G20 summit in South Africa presents an opportunity for China, which is seeking to expand its growing influence on the continent and position itself as an alternative to the dangers of a unilateralist US.
The U.S. government announced it would not attend the two-day summit that opens on Saturday, citing widely discredited claims that the host country, which was ruled by a white minority under an apartheid system until 1994, is now mistreating white people.
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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has hit back at Trump’s claims that holding the summit in Johannesburg was an “utter disgrace”. “Boycott politics does not work,” Ramaphosa said, adding that the United States was “abandoning the very important role it has to play as the world’s largest economy.”
After all, there was speculation that Washington might send U.S. officials to Johannesburg, and by Friday morning, President Trump appeared to backtrack somewhat on his position.
In any case, the dispute comes as Chinese President Xi Jinping sends Premier Li Qiang to represent him on the world stage. China’s 72-year-old president is scaling back foreign visits and increasing the mandates of top envoys.
“The United States is giving China an opportunity to expand its global influence,” Zhikun Zhu, a professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University, told Al Jazeera. “With the US absent, China and EU countries will be the focus of the summit, with other countries looking to them for leadership.”
But officials say that while Trump’s absence will focus attention on Beijing’s words and actions, it does not spell the end of the U.S.-led order.
Jin Gu, a political economist at the U.K.-based Institute for Development Studies, said the U.S.’s absence “doesn’t automatically make China the new leader, but it does create visible space for China to present itself as a more stable and reliable partner in governance.”
“This reinforces the perception that the United States is retreating from multilateralism and co-management of global issues,” she said. “In that context, China can present itself as a more predictable and stable actor, emphasizing continuity, support for open trade, and engagement with the Global South.”
Expanding your influence on the African continent
This year’s G20 will have an African Presidency for the first time and will be held on the African continent. The African Union (AU) will also fully participate as a member state.
South Africa’s G20 presidency is expected to foster agreement and action on African countries’ priorities, including debt relief, economic growth, climate change and the transition to clean energy.
Zhu, who is also editor-in-chief of the academic journal China and the World, said the South African theme was a “natural fit” for China, Africa’s largest trading partner.
“China aims to become a leader in green energy, and there is a lot of room for China and African countries to work on it,” he said.
The African continent holds great potential for Chinese companies, with rich mineral resources, a rapidly growing population, and a fast-growing economy. Chinese Premier Li visited Zambia this week, becoming the first Chinese prime minister to visit the country in 28 years. The copper-rich country has the Chinese government as its largest official creditor at $5.7 billion.
Keen to secure access to Zambia’s goods and expand exports from resource-rich East Africa, China signed a $1.4 billion deal in September to rehabilitate the Tazara Railway, built in the 1970s and linking Tanzania and Zambia, and improve rail and sea transport in the region.
“China’s economy and Africa’s economy are complementary and both benefit from trade,” Zhu said. The G20 is “a great platform for China to exert its global influence and explore opportunities to cooperate with other countries,” he added.
Observers say the two are a good fit, given Africa’s growing energy needs and China’s dominance in manufacturing. This is playing. For example, Africa’s imports of solar panels from China increased by 60% in the 12 months to June 2025, according to a report by energy think tank Ember.
China aims to take advantage of this growing synergy with Africa and plans to send three messages at this year’s G20, said Gu of the Institute for Development Studies.
“Firstly, there will be an emphasis on stability and the importance of global rules and regulations,” she said. Second, it will “link the G20 with the Global South and focus on issues such as development and green transformation.”
Third, “they will position themselves as problem solvers rather than disruptors by providing problem-based leadership on topics such as the digital economy, artificial intelligence and governance,” the economist added.
China as a bastion of multilateralism
Rosemary Foote, a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera that the absence of US officials from this year’s G20 will be a “new opportunity for China”, after missing the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in South Korea and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil.
“This again allows us to contrast our commitment to multilateralism and responsible behavior as a major nation with the dangers of a unilateral America focused solely on its own interests rather than the public good.”
China aims to expand its influence in Africa as a countermeasure to the US-led world order. In stark contrast to President Trump’s decision to end Africa’s duty-free era and impose tariffs of 15% to 30% on 22 countries, Mr. Xi announced at last month’s APEC summit a zero-tariff policy for all African countries with diplomatic relations with Beijing.
At the time, President Xi emphasized China’s commitment to “common development and shared prosperity with all countries” and emphasized China’s goal of “helping more developing countries achieve modernization and pave new paths to global development.”
Similarly, Chinese Premier Li spoke at the General Assembly in September to commemorate the United Nations’ 80th anniversary, expressing the need for greater collective action on climate change and emerging technologies, and calling for greater unity to “(lift) everyone up while divisions drag down all.”
His comments were in stark contrast to Trump, who in a speech described climate change as the “biggest fraud in history” and called renewable energy sources a “joke” and “pathetic.”
Foote said attention will be focused on China, which is seeking to take a similar conciliatory stance at the G20 and thereby differentiate itself from the United States. “It is even more difficult to determine whether the Chinese government will significantly influence the G20 agenda,” he said.
