The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is the primary federal agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy.
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced it will no longer release the Consumer Price Index for October, leaving the Federal Reserve without important inflation data to consider when it next sets interest rates on Dec. 10.
The agency announced on its website that the CPI data, which was scheduled to be released on Nov. 7, has been canceled because the government shutdown has prevented the BLS from “retroactively collecting” some of the survey data.
According to the BLS, November’s CPI data was previously scheduled to be released on December 10th, but after the Fed’s decision, it will now be released on December 18th.
The bureau’s data collectors are compiling the index in several ways, including through personal visits and phone calls, which were not possible during the shutdown. The BLS also uses online data and household surveys, which also make it difficult to collect information retrospectively.
In addition to the Fed’s announcement, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, another key inflation measure, will be “rescheduled,” although no specific date has been announced. The Fed uses the PCE price index as its primary inflation forecasting tool. This gauge was scheduled to be released on November 26th.
Fed officials have expressed concerns about being stuck in a data fog when formulating monetary policy. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter-point rate cut in late October, but meeting minutes reflected concerns about an incomplete picture.
“This is a temporary situation, and we’re going to do our job. We’re going to gather all the data we can find, evaluate it, and carefully consider it,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said after the October meeting. “What do you do if you’re driving in fog? Slow down. … It may make sense to be more cautious in your travels.”
But New York Fed President William Williams said Friday that he thinks the Fed probably has “room for further adjustment in the near term,” suggesting a rate cut could happen soon.
Other Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, said despite the lack of data from the shutdown, policymakers still have enough information to make informed decisions.
