Thomas Frank is under intense scrutiny after his defensive approach was disrupted by Arsenal in Sunday’s north London derby. The Spurs were so bad that their head coach was forced to apologize. It wasn’t the start he or the club had hoped for.
Despite Frank switching to a back five, Spurs were unable to contain the hosts at the Emirates Stadium, a decision that called into question his approach since taking over. The club needed a change from ‘Engeball’, but has Frank gone too far in the opposite direction?
“If you impose too much of a glass-half-empty mentality and style on your team, it can get really ugly at the end of the game,” Gary Neville said. “Tottenham have to bounce back pretty quickly and work on their identity.”
This week’s “Between the Lines” takes a closer look at Frank’s change in style and the offensive issues that have Spurs fans concerned.
It failed on the 9th try…it could get even worse.
Richarlison’s incredible goal could not disguise Tottenham’s lackluster attacking performance against Arsenal. In the first half, we couldn’t take a single shot. Their three shots in the second period equated to just 0.07 expected goals.
Spurs have scored just 0.07 expected goals against Arsenal, fewer than any other team in Premier League games this season.
This figure was the lowest total for any side in any Premier League game, surpassing their previous low of 0.10 xG in the loss to Chelsea just a few weeks ago, and once again underlined their creativity and apparent lack of goal threat.
In fact, Spurs are fourth in the Premier League for points this season with 20 goals, but that is entirely due to massive overperformance.
Their expected goals total is the fourth lowest at 11.16. Only Burnley have fewer shots. Spurs aren’t producing enough talent.
So what happens when overperformance proves to be unsustainable, as often happens when teams go against the data?
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Jamie Carragher explained how Spurs need to improve on Monday Night Football
Jamie Carragher said on Monday: “The worry for Spurs fans is that it’s not going to be what we were looking at in terms of results at the start of the season. It’s actually going to be a little bit worse.”
Sunday’s loss was their fourth defeat of the season and left them ninth in the Premier League standings, but looking at the basic performance data it appears they were fortunate not to fall too far down the table.
The underlying figures suggest that Spurs should sit 14th in the table based on expected goals at both ends of the pitch this season.
Spurs are 14th in Sky Sports’ prediction table, based on the xG formula, just three places above last season’s record-lowest position under Frank’s predecessor, Ange Postecoglou, with just 12 points expected from 12 games.
From one extreme style to another
In other words, although Frank oversaw a fundamental change in style from Postecoglou, there were only minimal improvements.
The Spurs are pressing less than last season, with fewer high turnovers and pressing sequences, and sitting deeper.
Spurs’ style has changed from the high-risk, high-pressure style under manager Ange Postecoglou to a more conservative style.
With Frank’s emphasis on aerials and long passes, the number of ways to advance the ball up the field, such as fast breaks and build-up attacks, has also decreased. He has prioritized defense in his first few months in charge, an approach that is unlikely to win him over at a club renowned for its attacking tradition.
Stylistically, Spurs began to resemble Frank’s former club Brentford. The Bees pressed more than the Spurs under Frank last season than they did this season, but they have a similar profile in terms of upfield progression, fast breaks and build-up attacks.
Spurs’ style this season is similar to Brentford’s style last season under Thomas Frank.
Recruitment and selection issues
From an aggressive team under Postecoglou to an overly cautious team under Frank, the Spurs have veered from one extreme to the other. So why does Frank find it difficult to balance?
Recruitment is one of the challenges. Ebereshi Eze was a painful reminder of what Spurs missed out on at the Emirates Stadium, but Xavi Simmons, whom Eze turned to after his break from Spurs, has struggled to make an impact so far.
The 22-year-old had a strong season with Bundesliga side RB Leipzig last season, scoring a total of 17 goals and assisting, but his numbers have declined across the board at Spurs. He has struggled to adapt, not helped by Frank’s preference at the base of midfield.
Xavi Simmons struggles to reproduce last season’s form
He continues to co-nominate Joao Parinha and Rodrigo Bentancur. It’s a combination that aims to bring physicality and defensive solidity. However, there was little evidence of this against Arsenal, with his shortcomings on the ball being a major problem.
There is no doubt that attacking players like Simmons are underperforming, but they are also left isolated by the lack of service from central midfielders Parinha and Bentancur, who struggle to play up front and prefer passes to the sides and back.
While Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal have ranked high for ball progression from central midfield this season, Spurs are at the other end of the spectrum, with a profile more similar to teams such as West Ham, Sunderland, Brentford and Everton.
Spurs are low on promotion from central midfield to upfield this season
Although it appears at first glance that Franck is concentrating on pairing Parinha with Bentancur, he has also made significant rotations elsewhere.
Spurs have made 29 changes to their squad this season, the third-most in the Premier League. This is a move aimed at keeping the squad fresh as Spurs juggle domestic and European commitments, but there is a growing sense that it has contributed to inconsistent performances on the pitch.
Injuries and defense litigation
So what happens to Frank’s defense?
For starters, he’s only been in charge for a few months after taking over a team that finished 17th in the Premier League last season.
Secondly, he had to battle serious injury problems. Spurs have lost more days to injury than any other team in the Premier League, with key attacking players on the absent list.
Spurs have missed a record number of days this season due to injuries and suspensions
Franck is unable to call up either James Maddison or Dejan Kulusevski due to injury, while striker Dominic Solanke has only played 31 minutes in the Premier League.
Of the top five scorers in all competitions last season, four – Solanke, Maddison, Heung-min Son and Kulusevski – were unavailable due to injury or, in Son’s case, leaving the club.
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Jamie Carragher and Roberto Martinez explain how Arsenal used Thomas Frank’s tactics in the North London derby
The Spurs’ hope is that they can get better once they get some of their offensive players back from injuries.
But after Sunday’s heartbreaking defeat in the North London derby, it’s clear Frank has work to do to show that his style can bring success to the club.
read between the lines last week
What is the true performance level of your Premier League team and what does Sky Sports’ supercomputer now predict for the final standings? We took a look last week.
