F1 title fight: What will decide the championship between Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen? | F1 News

With two rounds left in the 2025 F1 season, Lando Norris leads the drivers’ championship with a 24-point lead over Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen.

Norris could become world champion at this Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix if he beats his title rivals by two points during the Saturday sprint weekend.

However, if either Piastri or Verstappen are within 25 points at the end of the Grand Prix, the title fight will be decided at the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi on December 7th.

2 McLarens vs. 1 Red Bull

Sky Sports F1’s Martin Brundle predicted earlier this year that the two McLarens would “take points from each other” throughout the season, which would certainly keep Verstappen in title contention.

McLaren still cannot afford to back championship leader Norris. Considering Norris is underperforming and Piastri could suddenly be within single digits of his teammate.

If the McLaren duo were to compete against each other on the same track, it would be a hard fight and it would be risky, as was demonstrated when Norris crashed into the back of Piastri at the Canadian Grand Prix and vice versa at the Austin Sprint.

Norris and Piastri said ahead of Las Vegas that their relationship is “stronger than ever,” but some tension will certainly start to creep in.

Red Bull will be hoping Hiroki Tsunoda can produce two strong weekends to help Verstappen, whether it’s by leading him in the final stages of qualifying or strategically in the race.

However, Tsunoda has failed to reach Q3 in the last five races and has been unable to chase down the McLaren, which pitted for a lap or two by the time the first pit stop stage arrived – in a similar fashion to Sergio Perez at the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Perhaps to secure his future in F1, Tsunoda could repeat what Perez did in the final stages of 2021 and become a strategic option for Red Bull.

How important will experience be?

Norris and Piastri are venturing into new territory, at least at this level of motorsport, while Verstappen is competing for his fifth F1 title. The pressure never mounts more than at the heart of a big championship fight, so could driver or team mistakes creep in?

Norris, who is aiming to become Britain’s 11th F1 world champion, said: “I don’t feel anything different now, even though it’s an opportunity for me.”

“I treat it the same way. I treat it like I want to go win. I do everything I can to win the race. It’s certainly a lot more fun when you win than when you come second.”

“My goal is to win both races until the end of the season and also win the sprint. So I guess I’ll try to win all three. But no, I don’t know if anything will change. Nothing right now.”

There will also be pressure on teams to ensure that late pit stops, incorrect car setups and reliability issues do not negatively impact a driver’s chances. There are only a few instances where engineers and pit crews have an influence.

“We need the strategists, the race engineers and the whole team to keep giving 100 per cent,” said Sky Sports F1’s Bernie Collins.

“The moment you try to play it safe, you’re caught up. We need to get the best out of both drivers and keep pushing to give them a fair chance.”

Then there’s the element of luck. Being an innocent bystander in a race-ending collision, or being blocked by another driver in qualifying, is a situation you can’t do anything about.

In the end, most of the stress is handled by the drivers, who have told the media that they should treat these two weeks like any other weekend.

The reality is different. Maybe you drive yourself a little more or take less risks, which in itself can lead to unforced errors. That will cause further headaches for Verstappen, especially for Norris and Piastri who are competing for the title in F1 for the first time at this stage of the season.

Will the winner be decided in the preliminary round?

Seven races have been held since the summer break in August, and the pole sitter continues to win the race. The run ended in Las Vegas as Verstappen won from second place.

Still, Verstappen proved difficult to overtake at the front, leading every lap after taking the lead from Norris at Turn 2.

Current ground effects cars are at their peak and produce so much downforce, but that means there’s dirtier air, making it harder to follow.

Mercedes driver George Russell said earlier this year: “Today’s F1 is a race to Turn 1. There’s no tire degradation and there’s only three-tenths of a tenth between the fastest and slowest car in the top six.”

“Usually you need at least half a second to pass. The problem is when you don’t have tire degradation, you don’t have tire delta. Every track we go to, you need at least half a second to pass.”

Norris has claimed the last three pole positions, but Piastri has not been on the front row since the Dutch Grand Prix in August.

Overtaking will not be easy at Qatar’s Lusail International Circuit or Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina Circuit, so there will be a lot of pressure to get a result in qualifying.

Could other teams play a role in the championship?

Mercedes are the team likely to chase the title protagonists, so Russell and Kimi Antonelli could make a difference in the championship by splitting McLaren from Verstappen.

It will be especially interesting to see how aggressive the Mercedes drivers are in wheel-to-wheel battles, knowing they have much less to lose in a duel on the track.

In the past five races alone, Russell delighted everyone by winning the Singapore Grand Prix, Antonelli held off Verstappen in Brazil and Piastri on track in Las Vegas.

If Ferrari can maximize their performance, they’ll be in the fight too, so there’s sure to be some big overtakes and moves that at least one of the championship challengers will have to overcome.

Which is better: Qatar or Abu Dhabi?

McLaren’s big strength all year has been mid-high speed corners, and in theory both Qatar and Abu Dhabi would suit their cars.

But Verstappen has set winning pace in five of the last seven races, winning four of those grands prix, and in Brazil he sprinted from the pit lane to the podium.

Each of these wins came at circuits with different characteristics and conditions, so any narrative that McLaren has a winning car must be treated with caution, as Red Bull may have a car that is on par with the MCL39, or even slightly behind it.

“If you look at their pace the last few weeks, they’ve been fast,” Norris said.

“If they don’t mess up in qualifying, they will win the race, like they did in Las Vegas, Monza and other races. It’s a tough situation. It’s easy to get there and back. We just have to do a better job.”

Red Bull brought a modified version of the Monza floor to Mexico City in October but it didn’t work, but Verstappen was able to take on McLaren after having it removed mid-week in Brazil.

It’s a sprint weekend in Qatar, so there will only be one practice session this Friday afternoon before heading straight into sprint qualifying. Red Bull’s weakness earlier this year was that they struggled to get out of the blocks and needed three practice sessions to adjust their car. That characteristic may also be missing, so the final two race weekends could be very close, with the drivers making the difference.

F1’s season-ending triple header continues with the Qatar Grand Prix Sprint weekend, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports now – cancel anytime with no contract