It is difficult to overstate the importance of Egypt’s current parliamentary elections.
The results of the vote will not only determine the composition of the next parliament, but also whether and for how long President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi’s rule will be extended.
The vote comes amid an economic crisis and growing public discontent, raising the stakes for a president who wants to ensure his long-term political survival.
El-Sissi seized power after a military coup in 2013 and rapidly consolidated power, establishing an ultra-authoritarian political framework.
In 2019, he pushed for a referendum on constitutional reforms that would give him more powers and effectively extend his rule, which was supposed to end in 2022.
The regime risked no consequences. It blocked thousands of websites that criticized the proposed amendment. People who campaigned for a “no” vote were arrested. and engaged in a combination of voter intimidation, bribery, and smear campaigns.
Given that context, it is not surprising that El-Sissi and his supporters won a landslide “yes” vote, effectively guaranteeing that El-Sissi would rule Egypt until 2030.
With just over four years remaining until 2030, El Sisi is reportedly seeking a further extension.
He appears prepared to approve a constitutional amendment in the next House of Representatives that would extend his term beyond 2030, possibly indefinitely.
lower house
The House of Commons is by far the most important of Egypt’s two parliaments. The other Senate plays a primarily advisory role.
Last summer’s Senate elections, held amid extremely low turnout, were carefully managed to ensure complete control of the government.
The focus now shifts to the far more important parliamentary elections.
The House of Representatives, which has 596 seats, is responsible for legislation and is responsible for approving constitutional amendments.
However, despite their important role, members of the House of Representatives are not elected in a truly democratic manner.
The House of Representatives is basically structured to keep pace with the president. 28 are directly appointed by him, and the remaining 568 seats are carefully designed to ensure the status quo.
These 568 seats are divided into individual seats, contested by candidates running independently, and list-based seats, which are allocated through party lists.
In reality, as documented in research reports, nearly all individual seats are accessible only to candidates with deep pockets or strong ties to state-aligned networks.
The remaining list-based seats will be elected using a closed list system rather than a proportional representation system.
Absolutely closed-list systems are winner-take-all, in which voters choose only one party list from a set of conceptual lists.
A list that receives 50 percent of the votes in a particular district wins 100 percent of the seats in that district.
Importantly, only approved party lists will be allowed to compete.
There is no suspense and the outcome is predetermined.
The outcome of all elections and referendums in Egypt under El-Sissi was more or less predetermined.
Since 2014, the regime has consistently preemptively eliminated potential presidential candidates, intimidated and arrested opposition activists, engaged in manipulation of the voting process, and used a media crackdown to secure electoral dominance.
The current parliamentary elections are following a predictable pattern. With competition already tightly controlled through the individual seat system and the list seat system, the National Elections Authority further narrowed the field by excluding all but one list (El-Sisi’s Egyptian National List) from the contest. It is said that candidates needed between 30 million and 70 million Egyptian pounds ($629,504 to $1.4 million) to gain access to El-Sissi’s priority list.
There were allegations of widespread fraud in the first round of voting, which took place on November 10 and 11, with clearly documented irregularities including vote buying, illegal campaigning, and various other forms of vote manipulation.
Embarrassing videos of the solicitation went viral, ultimately forcing El-Sissi to cancel and reschedule a small number of individual seat elections in some constituencies.
The second round of voting was held on November 25th and 26th, and despite the National Elections Authority’s claims that it has taken precautionary measures, violations appear to continue.
In both votes, Mr. Sisi’s media faithfully repeated the government’s official line.
As videos emerged on social media showing clear evidence of chaos and low turnout, the media highlighted what they portrayed as the regime’s successes: organization, law and order, and high turnout.
The results are expected to be announced next month, but there is nothing to worry about. Officials widely expect the el-Sisi coalition to control the lower house, just as it controls the upper house.
Unsurprisingly, early results suggest that the el-Sissi coalition is performing well.
buy time
El-Sissi essentially rewrote modern Egypt’s authoritarian strategy.
His plans for widespread state violence, mass arrests, bans on opposition parties and media, and draconian laws far exceed the repression of his authoritarian predecessor.
His system of repression is probably the main reason why we think the idea of El-Sissi relinquishing power, even in a pseudo-democratic handover, is completely untenable. Giving up power could put him at risk of liability.
The risks are real, in part because he has created rivals from within the power structure.
El-Sissi will almost certainly win at the end of the ongoing parliamentary elections, granting him at least another six-year term as president.
At least this will buy El Sissi some time.
But the election is also likely to fuel dissatisfaction with Egypt’s one-man political system and an economy that has been in turmoil for years.
The mix of economic mismanagement, corruption, and repression is dangerous and familiar.
It is reminiscent of the last years of Hosni Mubarak’s tenure in Egypt.
He, too, thought he was firmly in control.
Indeed, it may only be a matter of time before there is another popular uprising or the military empire decides to sacrifice el-Sissi in the same way it sacrificed Mubarak in 2011.
Paradoxically, even when leaders tighten their iron fists, they often lose control.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.
