accusatory voice. The military demands surveillance. and powerful foreign leaders trying to shift voters to the right.
These are just three of the scandals that made Sunday’s presidential election in Honduras one of the most closely watched in the country’s history.
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Even before voting began, some senior politicians were already claiming that vote theft was underway.
For example, outgoing President Xiomara Castro likened the situation to a “criminal conspiracy aimed at staging an electoral coup.”
But experts who spoke to Al Jazeera said the public has become accustomed to uncertainty and confusion.
After all, Honduras’ democracy is only about 40 years old, and in that time the country has been plagued by government corruption and even coups.
“There is clearly a threat of violence and a coup,” said Daniel Validares, an activist and history professor at the National Autonomous University of Honduras. “But that’s a fear we’ve always had.”
In the final days before the election, Validares observed a tense and calm situation in the Central American country.
“The environment is normal,” he said. “What people always say is the same thing: ‘I wish there were no more crappy shows.'”
Unclear poll results
Part of the uncertainty ahead of this year’s election stems from poll numbers. Of the five presidential candidates on the ballot, none holds a decisive lead.
However, there are three front-runners in this race that appear to be close.
Voters on Sunday will most likely choose between Rixie Moncada, the candidate of Mr. Castro’s left-wing Libre party, and Mr. Castro’s left-wing Libre party candidate. Salvador Nasrallah of the center-right Freedom Party. and Nasri “Tito” Asfullah of the conservative National Party.
None of the three hold a decisive lead, and voter polls have fluctuated widely.
For example, one poll conducted by the Institute of Justice found Moncada trailing. Her approval rating was 25 percent, compared to 31 percent for Asfullah and 40 percent for Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, another poll showed Moncada in the lead. More than 44% of those surveyed by Mexican firm T Research supported left-wing candidates, compared to 19.6% for Nasrallah and 14.8% for Asfulura.
Other polls show the three candidates are virtually tied.
The ambiguity has led to condemnation from the main political parties in the election, with each side accusing the other of manipulating the vote.
For example, Asfulura accused the ruling Libre party of “pressuring” and “abusing” election officials. He threatened to mobilize his supporters in protest.
“Yes, we will hold elections and take to the streets to achieve democracy and freedom,” he told television network HCH.
Meanwhile, Moncada claimed at a rally that there was an “illegal” alliance between opposing parties to “steal the election.”
“We will take the necessary steps to protect the vote of every man and woman in Honduras,” she told the audience.
Infighting at the Election Commission
The fiery rhetoric stems from several scandals. However, one of the most notable eruptions occurred in late October.
A government agency known as the National Electoral Council (CNE) organizes the country’s elections. The organization is made up of three officials chosen to represent the country’s three major political parties.
However, on October 29, LIBRE president Marlon Ochoa delivered to prosecutors an audio recording purporting to be of a conversation between CNE colleague Cossette López and an unnamed military official.
In the recording, López, who represents the right-wing National Party, allegedly discussed plans to disrupt the electoral process by “altering the popular vote” and staging a possible boycott.
“What I am sure of is that the military is on our side,” Lopez was quoted as saying.
Attorney General Johel Zelaya maintained that the recordings were genuine and launched an investigation into the incident.
However, Congressman Thomas Zambrano, who also participated in the recording, claimed that the audio was “completely false, fabricated and manipulated using artificial intelligence.”
He and Asfulura defended Lopez and characterized the investigation as a campaign to undermine his authority.
But the audio scandal wasn’t the only dispute that rocked CNE.
Also in October, Honduran military chief Roosevelt Hernández called for the military to be allowed to independently tally the results of the upcoming election.
Hernandez is believed to be affiliated with Libre. CNE president and Liberal Party member Ana Paola Hall denounced his demands as “interference” in the electoral process.
Watchdog groups echo these concerns. For example, Human Rights Watch said in a statement that the military “does not have the authority to access, aggregate, transmit, or review the results.”
Trump also shares his opinion
Pressure from abroad is adding to the chaos in the election.
Honduras’ largest trading partner is the United States, and the two countries have cooperated closely on issues such as combating drug trafficking.
But right-wing leaders in the United States are spreading misinformation ahead of Sunday’s election, further raising concerns about the integrity of the election.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump personally commented on his Truth Social platform.
While supporting Asufuro, he falsely described the conservative candidate’s two closest rivals as puppets of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
President Trump wrote that a victory in Moncada would hand the country over to “Maduro and his narco-terrorists.” And they claim that US President Nasrallah is a “borderline communist” trying to divide the right-wing vote.
“The communists are trying to deceive the people by running a third candidate, Salvador Nasrallah,” Trump wrote. “The Honduran people must not be fooled again. The only true friend of freedom in Honduras is Tito Azufura.”
President Trump is not the only one facing increasing opposition from the United States.
Florida Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R) similarly accused Mr. Moncada of lining up Mr. Maduro and said Libre’s candidacy would drag Honduras into “socialist hell.”
Validares believes that the US pressure campaign is the result of coordination with the Honduran right wing.
“The fact that they even asked members of Congress to write memos (about the election) is scary,” Validares said.
ghosts of the past
On Honduras’ left, pressure is stirring up memories of the military coup that toppled President Castro’s husband, Manuel “Mel” Zelaya.
The specter of the 2009 coup still looms large over the country. In his third year in office, Zelaya proposed holding a referendum to amend the Honduran constitution.
But the backlash was swift. The Supreme Court issued a secret warrant for his arrest, and soldiers forced Mr. Zelaya into exile and put him on a plane to Costa Rica against his will.
Political violence surged after the coup, and a series of contested elections followed, each electing a right-wing government.
In an Oct. 29 post, President Castro likened the chaos to current election procedures.
“The same group that violated the constitution in the 2009 coup and rigged elections in 2013 and 2017 is now trying again to subvert the will of the people, sow chaos, and usurp popular sovereignty,” she wrote.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, biology professor and Libre activist Iliam Rivera accused domestic business interests of trying to undermine the left’s re-election chances.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty,” Rivera said. “The Honduran right-wing, funded by the country’s economic powerhouses, has launched a frantic media campaign against Libre party candidate Lixi Moncada.”
Another activist, Guido Eguia, told Al Jazeera that he feared a repeat of the 2017 election cycle.
“In 2017, there was a ‘blackout’ in the voting system, which concealed the results in real time,” he said. “I’m worried that there will be a move similar to what will happen in 2017.”
Still, what Honduras is currently experiencing is nothing new, Egguire said. He said corruption allegations were an endemic problem that could not be solved with Sunday votes alone.
“Fraud is common in this country,” he says. “Deception and coup d’état. That was part of our story.”
The Organization of American States, made up of 33 member states, has already announced plans to send 100 election observers to Honduras for Sunday’s vote.
He urged the election commission to carry out its work “in accordance with the law and without interference or undue pressure from political actors.”
