Football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight across the Premier League and looks to see Newcastle fall behind again against Everton.
Brentford v Burnley, Saturday 3pm
Scoring 13 points from a potential 18 at home despite facing a tough fixture list of Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa is a good barometer of the job Keith Andrews is doing at Brentford. The tactical blueprint was never broken. No need to reinvent the wheel. Smart coaching and decision-making that plays to exactly their strengths.
Burnley, on the other hand, have good intentions, lots of potential and plenty of decent build-up, but when the big moments arrive, the Clarets are too often sidelined. They’ve all scored over 2.5 goals in their six away days, so adding that line to the Brentford win gives them a 5/4 shot to attack on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 3-1
Manchester City vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6s here!
When prices seem wrong, it is usually because the market has failed to adapt to changing conditions. And in the case of Rayan Cherki, the assumption is that the Premier League will treat him in the same way as Ligue 1 if he is fouled.
The algorithm that prices the “fouls won” market still uses French data, and he averaged 1.4 fouls last season, and that number is trending upwards. He has been fouled twice or more in three of his four starts for City, picking up the ball at the heart of midfield battles, but averaging 1.9 fouls per 90. 7/4 on Sky Bet where he gets fouled twice again is pretty good value.
Score prediction: 2-0 | Jones knows best: Rayan Cherki wins with 2 or more fouls (7/4 on Sky Bet)
Sunderland vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6s here!
Sometimes the numbers scream rather than whisper – and Bournemouth’s away stats are running a full-blown fire alarm routine in terms of supporting goals in this fixture.
Let’s start with the headline stats. Bournemouth’s last 20 away matches have resulted in 3.85 goals per game.
It’s not a trend, it’s a lifestyle choice for Andoni Iraola, and the philosophy of how he plays the game reflects that big goal return. And when 18 out of 20 games on the road score over 2.5 goals, you can stop calling it variance and start calling it what it really means: a profitable betting theory when the price is right.
You don’t hit the over by accident 18 out of 20 times. Jump to Over 2.5 on 10/11 with Sky Bet. It’s a weekend bet.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones knows the best bet: 2.5 goals or more (10/11 Sky Bet)
Everton vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Newcastle is as reliable away from home as a toddler passing through puddles.
Dating back to last season, Newcastle are without a win in eight Premier League away games, their worst run since December 2021, while they have lost four times away to their home sweet St James’s Park in all competitions.
The energy, the pressing, the sharpness, everything that has made Eddie Howe’s side a force in the Premier League, kicks down a gear on the journey. In the recent defeats against West Ham and Brentford, they looked leggy, elongated and decidedly flat.
And this game is of course the third game in eight days. Everton will be licking their lips.
Newcastle away are in trouble, Everton at home are in trouble for them – as have Brentford and West Ham – and prices haven’t caught up with that fact. The 7/4 that Sky Bet offers for a home win looks like a smart play.
Score prediction: 2-1
Tottenham vs Fulham, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
What caught my attention was that Fulham took 13+ shots on Sky Bet on 10/11. The Spurs are allowing 12.7 shots per game this season. This is a marker of teams struggling to control territory and teams willing to absorb pressure.
And the teams that cleared the 13-shot bar aren’t exactly powerhouses. Burnley, Bournemouth, Bodø/Glimt, Monaco and Leeds all played for Spurs and achieved figures above the magic 13.
Cristian Romero’s suspension also bodes well for Fulham’s shooting play.
From a sample of 23 Premier League games, Tottenham concede around five shots per game without an influential defender. It’s a huge number. It’s not a wobble, it’s a structural collapse. Fulham can take advantage of that on their way to victory.
Score prediction: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United, Sunday 12pm
Strip away the name, hide the coat of arms, and if this is team A hosting team B, Crystal Palace will stand a chance.
Because every measurable aspect of Palace’s game has more structure, consistency and repeatability than what Manchester United currently offers. This is why the 13/10 value given to Palace home wins is getting less and less.
This is not a historical story. It’s about now. And now United are playing football that resembles a flashing light bulb. It was bright at times, but the room was in a dangerous situation where it plunged into darkness for a moment.
Palace, managed by Oliver Glasner, are the opposite. They look like a team. Something that works. Someone who is confident. The side that knows how to create and control.
Here, you get a more developed team, a clearer identity, a team with more weight and repeatability in its game, and at a great price, rather than a historic brand backed by market entertainment money. Home win.
Score prediction: 3-1
Aston Villa vs Wolves, Sunday 2:05pm, live on Sky Sports
This value does not exist in the traditional market, with Aston Villa dominating across the board. There is a hidden area where Rob Edwards’ Wolves are improving, and that is the result of their set-pieces. His team works on set pieces with great care.
His Luton team were ranked the best team in the Championship for set-piece goals and expected goals in both periods of that league, while his Forest Green team ranked second for expected goals from set-pieces during promotion from League Two.
There are already signs in one game that Wolves are taking set-pieces more seriously after these scenarios produced the equivalent of 0.77 expected goals in the defeat to Crystal Palace. Ladislav Krejci, who has taken 10 shots in the past 10 games, was the main threat and first contact from the corner last weekend. He looks a tasty bet to score at 12/1 Sky Bet.
Ladislak Kureishi scores at 12/1 with Sky Bet
Score prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports
If there’s one thing betting can teach you, it’s that no matter how long you’ve been in this game, it’s hard to accept bad results. And last week’s angle, Brentford’s double chance against Brighton, still lingers like a stubborn hangover. The logic was right and the bet looked like a money-maker until the football gods decided that Brentford would throw away a 1-0 lead with 10 minutes left and Igor Thiago would miss a penalty with his final kick.
But here we are once again staring at a very familiar setting. And yes, the well is still full of value so I’ll be back in the well to play against Brighton here. Despite their fluidity and beautiful patterns, Brighton simply don’t like playing against teams that go direct and change direction.
Under Fabian Hürzeler, Brighton won 19 of their 34 Premier League games when their opponents completed less than 15% of their passes, but only two of their 16 other games. Forest played 26 per cent of their passes long against Liverpool last week and are well placed to finish 10/11 on no bets with a similar approach.
Score prediction: 2-1
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Highlights of the Premier League match between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest.
West Ham vs Liverpool, Sunday 2:05pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6s here!
Virgil van Dijk has committed nine fouls in his last five games. Gone were the intimidating and sometimes unruly defenders, replaced by more shoddy defenders who made more mistakes and fouls.
At the start of last season, it took Van Dijk 11 games to rack up five fouls, but now it looks like he can rack up five fouls in a single game.
A player who was moving smoothly through the match without putting his gloves on anyone suddenly started hacking and grabbing like a guy trying to put out a fire with a watering can, stepping into a late-game challenge. Playing next to Ibrahima Konate could do something like that for the player.
His direct opponent, Callum Wilson, is smart at luring defenders into awkward contact and picking up soft fouls. Dating back two seasons, Wilson has committed 1.6 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, picking up five fouls in his first four games under manager Nuno Espirito Santo, and they now believe he is the focal point.
The Sky Bet cost of 11/2 with Van Dijk committing at least two fouls is huge, the highest in the season realm. Get value before the market catches up.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones knows best bet: Virgil van Dijk commits two or more fouls (11/2, Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Arsenal, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
This game is very cautious.
Those expecting either of these teams to play “statement football” may end up being disappointed, as these games could be an exercise in risk management, especially considering the busy schedules both teams currently face.
Enzo Maresca and Mikel Arteta are the same in terms of control and not taking unnecessary risks, especially in away games of this kind. Last season, Arsenal won just one away game out of eight games against top nine opponents, with five of those being draws. This season they have lost at Anfield and won in sloppy fashion at Newcastle in a very tight contest.
Arteta is playing these games thinking that, in the grand scheme of things, a draw is fine, and he’s not wrong.
Both teams know that points won’t hurt the story. Nothing is lost and everything remains possible. A stalemate, a bet that no one wants to support, is the most astute way to approach the 21/10 outright market on offer at Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-1
Jones knows:
1 point double for Rayan Cherki with at least 2 fouls and 2.5 goals or more in Sunderland vs. Bournemouth (4/1 at Sky Bet) 1 point for at least 2 fouls in Virgil van Dijk vs. West Ham (11/2, at Sky Bet)
