iShares 20-Year Treasuries ETF (TLT) chart on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Friday, August 1, 2025 in New York, USA.
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U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders began expecting economic growth to accelerate slightly in 2026. This was driven in part by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the central bank’s final policy meeting of the year next week.
As of 9 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.4 basis points to 4.073%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.731%. The two-year bond yield rose 2.7 basis points to 3.518%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and the yield is inversely proportional to the price.
Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a nearly 88% chance that the U.S. central bank will cut the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.50% to 3.75% next week, up from just 63% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Looking ahead to next year, Bank of America said on Monday that economists expect a weaker dollar as the world economy “bottoms out, supported by lower interest rates, reduced policy uncertainty and some fiscal support.”
Investors will be perusing several economic reports this week, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday at 10 a.m. ET. The ADP jobs report will be released on Wednesday, providing the latest labor market data before the Fed’s Dec. 9-10 meeting.
ISM Services PMI will also be released on Wednesday, followed by the weekly number of new unemployment insurance claims on Thursday. The delayed release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditure Index will conclude the week on Friday.
Federal Reserve officials suffered a pre-meeting communications outage ahead of the FOMC’s Dec. 10 decision, making economic data a focus for investors looking for hints about future interest rate policy.
