WASHINGTON (AP) – The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said Tuesday that the global economy has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of President Donald Trump’s trade war, and has revised upward its outlook for global and U.S. economic growth this year.
The 38-nation OECD currently forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% this year, down slightly from 3.3% in 2024 but improved from the 2.9% in 2025 it had predicted in June. The organization, which conducts economic research and promotes international trade and prosperity, expects global growth to slow to 2.9% next year.
The OECD also raised its U.S. growth forecast for this year to 2%, higher than previously. The forecast in June was 1.6%.. Still, even with this upgrade, growth in the US economy, the world’s largest, would have been much slower than in 2024 (2.8%).
Since returning to the White House in January, playing cards He overhauled U.S. trade policy and taxed imports to build a protectionist wall around the previously open U.S. economy.
Trade barriers were widely expected to slow growth and raise costs. But his customs duty That’s lower than the numbers he threatened to impose in the spring. Many companies avoided the tax by importing foreign products into the United States before the tax took effect. And the U.S. and global economies are getting a boost from massive investments. artificial intelligence.
“The global economy has remained resilient this year, despite fears of a sharp slowdown given rising trade barriers and high policy uncertainty,” OECD Secretary-General Matthias Cormann said in a commentary accompanying the forecast. Still, he added, “We expect the tariff hikes to trickle down to higher prices, which will dampen growth in household consumption and business investment.”
The OECD expects ChinaIndia, the world’s second-largest economy, is expected to grow by 5% this year, the same as in 2024. The 20 countries that share the euro currency are expected to grow by a combined 1.3% in 2025, a lackluster increase from 0.8% in 2024.
India, which replaced China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, is expected to grow by 6.7% this year, up from 6.5% in 2024.
