It’s widely believed that European football is hurting the Premier League, but is that true or just a myth? Check out this week’s Between the Lines.
The latest round of Premier League matches spread the narrative that teams tend to struggle immediately after European games.
Chelsea and Arsenal played out a rough 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on Sunday after defeating Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Champions League respectively in midweek.
Spurs, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest also showed signs of fatigue after losing to teams who were free in midweek at Fulham, Manchester United and Brighton respectively.
Of Europe’s nine Premier League teams, only Liverpool and Newcastle achieved comfortable wins, with Manchester City needing a stoppage-time goal to defeat Leeds and Aston Villa winning by one point over bottom-placed Wolves.
various destinies
But how have the Premier League’s European teams fared overall this season after playing Champions League, Europa League and Conference League games?
The graph below shows their mixed fortunes.
Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal all average fewer points per game after their European nights than in other games.
However, other teams have fared much better, with Manchester City, Spurs, Newcastle and Aston Villa all averaging higher points immediately after their European tours.
Is Burnley the only one worse than Palace?
Palace have won just one of their six Premier League games this season, averaging just 0.8 points per game compared to 2.1 in their other games.
The 61 per cent negative difference is the second largest for a Premier League side in Europe since the 2010/11 season.
Only Burnley in 2018/19 had a bigger deficit in points per game after matches in Europe. The Clarets failed to make it past the play-offs, drawing one and losing three of their four Europa League games that season.
So why are teams like Burnley and Palace struggling?
Part of the problem is the team’s lack of depth when it comes to managing the additional workload that European qualifying brings.
Manager Oliver Glasner spoke out on the matter after Palace’s defeat to Manchester United on Sunday, lamenting the club’s failure to properly strengthen the squad after the European qualifying round at the end of last season.
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Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner felt the club missed an opportunity to strengthen their squad ahead of their European trip.
“We missed the (chance) to strengthen the squad in the summer, we knew the schedule, we knew Ismaila (Saar) was going to AFCON. Surprisingly nothing happened,” he said.
“When you play for the first time in the history of European football, let’s invest instead of saving. We saved and that’s what we’re facing.”
Without a rotation option that Glasner trusts, Palace have made fewer line-up changes than any other team in the Premier League this season, leading to fatigue among first-choice starters and contributing to their recent defeats.
It is worth noting that Forest, another team that first entered European competition during the Premier League era, have also struggled in the immediate aftermath of this season’s Europa League games.
Does Villa pay attention to previous lessons?
This season, Palace have recorded the largest negative points difference per game after a European match, while Villa have recorded the largest positive points difference in history.
Unai Emery’s side have won all five of their immediate Europa League matches this season, with an average of 167 per cent more points per game in other games.
Boubakar Kamara celebrates after giving Aston Villa the lead against Wolves
Unlike Palace and Forest, Villa have played in the Champions League and Conference League in the past two seasons, so they have had two years to adapt to the additional demands.
Last season, they struggled in post-Champions League games, winning only four of their 11 games. Lessons were learned, however, with Emery keeping his players fresh and using his team well to get them on track domestically.
Newcastle have also managed their workload well. This season’s 100% point difference after Champions League matches is the third largest of any team since the 2010/11 season.
Myth or reality?
Palace, Forest, Villa and Newcastle are extreme examples, but on average there is little difference between the results after a European match and the results of any other match.
The average difference in points per game after playing in Europe is negligible.
Since the 2010/11 season, Premier League teams have averaged 1.76 points after matches in Europe, compared to 1.79 points in other matches.
The widespread belief that Europe is having a negative impact on the Premier League’s form is more myth than reality.
read between the lines last week
Last week we delved into Thomas Frank’s ‘radical’ style overhaul at Tottenham and explained why the former Brentford head coach is struggling to make it work.
