F1 title decider: What will settle Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri’s Abu Dhabi GP showdown? | F1 News

Assessing some of the key potential factors at play for the Decider in the Desert as Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri take 2025’s unpredictable battle for the Formula 1 world title down to the nerve-jangling wire.

Who will have the fastest car in Abu Dhabi?

The good news for the prospect of a close-fought three-way title decider is that there is no reason to think either McLaren or Red Bull will not be quick on track in Abu Dhabi this weekend.

The Yas Marina Circuit, which is closing out the Formula 1 season for the 12th successive year, features sections and combinations of corners that should play to the strengths of both cars and therefore offer the three title contenders the opportunity to fight for victory at the front.

A McLaren driver has claimed the last four pole positions, with Verstappen not within 0.2s of the polesitter each time, which suggests that, on outright pace, the MCL39 still holds an edge on the RB21.

Were it to play out that way in qualifying on Saturday then one or both McLaren drivers would theoretically be in position to control the 58-lap race from the front.

However, it was assumed that was going to happen on each of the last two weekends in Las Vegas, when Norris was on pole, and Qatar, when Piastri led an all-papaya front-row lockout, only for Verstappen to beat them to victory both times.

The Dutchman himself continues to stress that McLaren remain just ahead on car performance, although he knows that does not mean there will not again be opportunities for Red Bull to pounce.

“You need to also be realistic, that I think on pure pace, we’re not at the same level,” said Verstappen after winning in Qatar.

“But at the same time, when strategy maybe comes into play or making the right calls at the right time, we might have the opportunity.”

Will McLaren have to end up using team orders?

Given the whole season has featured on-off talk about McLaren’s in-house ‘papaya rules’ and whether team orders would have to eventually be imposed to get one driver over the line for the title, it’s unsurprising that the topic has proved so dominant in the championship narrative this week.

The growing spectre of Verstappen pinching the title from under their drivers’ noses, despite the Dutchman never leading the standings so far and having been as many as 104 points behind, has certainly been heightened by the events of Qatar.

Verstappen’s win there also meant that for the first time since the season’s third round he moved between the McLaren drivers in the standings, 12 points back on Norris and four points ahead of Piastri.

So might this fact now impact McLaren’s approach to the finale?

Team principal Andrea Stella quickly made clear after the team’s nightmare race in Qatar that Norris and Piastri would head to Abu Dhabi still free to race and chase their individual maiden championship dreams.

Stella, though, also did admit that there would be “conversations” with the drivers during this week to “confirm our racing approach” for the finale so to ensure the team “race in a way that doesn’t surprise our drivers”.

This will have clearly partly centred on what Stella called any “collaboration of our drivers” – team orders, in other words – to be considered at a potential point that one of them is clearly out of contention with the way the race is panning out for them and the other needs help to ensure McLaren still win their first drivers’ title since 2008.

“There will be no call which excludes the other driver when the other driver is in condition to win,” said Stella.

“So, we will see what scenario will unfold, but definitely what I can say is that there will be conversations, and there will be a way of going racing which is united between the team and the drivers, like we have always done.”

Norris’ 16-point advantage over Piastri makes any scenario whereby the Briton would be required to help his team-mate’s bid, with his own effectively over, fairly unlikely. However, the mathematics certainly make it more plausible the other way around.

For instance, one obvious scenario that could conceivably unfold is what McLaren – and then Piastri – would do into the closing stages of Sunday’s race if Verstappen was winning and the Australian was second or third with Norris off the podium in fourth.

Given Norris only needs to finish in the top three for the title whatever his rivals do, would McLaren simply give the call for Piastri to drop back the required places behind his team-mate? Would Piastri do it? How would even Norris feel about clinching the crown in that way?

Both drivers have said earlier this year they would heed the team’s instructions right to the end of the season, so you’d have to imagine they’d stay true to their words and such a papaya switch would be enacted to ensure they didn’t lose the title to Verstappen.

Norris and Piastri will inevitably be asked about such scenarios again by the media on Thursday, when all three title contenders will appear together in the second part of the Drivers’ Press Conference, from 11.30am on Sky Sports F1.

Could the pace of rival teams cause a title curveball?

As the points leader and therefore the driver with most to lose in the decider, Norris will be hoping for the most straightforward of race weekends.

Indeed, a repeat of his Abu Dhabi weekend from 12 months ago – he beat Piastri to pole, the Australian and Verstappen collided at the race’s first corner, and Norris led from start to finish – would suit him down to the ground and see him become Britain’s 11th world champion.

Lights-to-flag wins are not necessarily good enough for either Verstappen or Piastri, though, who really need more variables in play if either are to turn the championship tide their respective way.

Rain? Forget that in the desert. Strategy? Abu Dhabi is usually a one-stopper. Qatar-style tyre-limit rules? No, there are no such wear concerns around the Yas Marina.

So can the competitiveness of rival teams potentially help the two championship outsiders out?

On the evidence of recent races, the most likely team to apply any kind of pressure to the podium positions is going to be Mercedes, who do have a wider result to play for themselves giving they are trying to close out second in the Constructors’ Championship from Red Bull.

A 33-point buffer ahead of a team whose best non-Sprint weekend score this year is 33 points should be sufficient if the Silver Arrows’ cars finish anywhere in the points, but Toto Wolff and co. will not want to simply stumble across the line on Sunday.

Then there’s Ferrari.

The Scuderia’s dismal Qatar weekend confirmed they will finish in unusual confines of fourth place for this year but Abu Dhabi at least provides them one final chance to finish a troubled year with some semblance of positivity.

They have finished with at least one car on the podium in each of the last four years at the season finale and will be keen to keep that record up.

Who will handle the pressure best?

For all of the points above, perhaps the chase for this year’s drivers’ title will ultimately be decided by the one unquantifiable factor that so often proves the difference between success and failure in elite sport – pressure.

As four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel, who triumphed in two last-race title deciders during his career, remarked in a recent interview: “I don’t think it’s possible you don’t feel the pressure.”

He said that even applies to someone as experienced and confident as Verstappen, although Vettel noted that the Dutchman still seemed “able to find space in his head where he’s able to put that to a side and focus on what matters” as he bids for a record-equalling fifth straight crown.

The challenge of closing out a title at the top level is certainly a new test for Norris.

The Briton’s first attempt to do so in Qatar had already been compromised by his own small errors in qualifying even before McLaren’s strategic miscue under the lap-seven Safety Car that cost Piastri a win and Norris at least third.

But Norris had been driving superbly in the previous rounds, seemingly adverse to the building pressure and outside noise, to turn a 34-point deficit to Piastri into a 24-point lead heading to the Middle East.

Arguably, having spent most of the season as the driver they were all trying to catch, the pressure is almost now completely off Piastri.

At 16 points back, the Australian will hope the return to form he displayed in Qatar carries over the Persian Gulf to Abu Dhabi. He will also hope history is on his side given the last two title deciders to feature at least three drivers – in 2010 and 2007 – saw the driver starting the race third in the standings crowned champion.

It’s not just the drivers on track under pressure too in F1, of course.

For their respective teams it’s about making the right calls at the right time – which proved so key in Qatar – optimising the car’s set-up for their drivers, delivering bullet-proof reliability and making no mistakes in crucial track functions like pit stops.

As we have seen plenty of times over the decades, and none of 2025’s contenders will need reminding, fine margins often decide world championships when they go down to the pressure-cooker environment of the season’s final day.

The 2025 F1 season concludes with the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime