Premier League predictions and best bets: 9/1 Sunderland could cause big upset at Manchester City | Soccer News

Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight across the Premier League weekend card, tipping off the best bets for the 10/1 treble.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Saturday 12:30pm

Arsenal’s defensive metrics from set-pieces wobble noticeably without Gabriel in the center of the backline, and those numbers are too noticeable to ignore. In the last 10 Premier League games without the Brazilian, Arsenal have scored seven set-piece goals and forced their opponents to take around three shots per game from dead-ball situations.

That’s quite a drop for a team that usually prides itself on control and organization.

Aston Villa have the best set-piece threat in the division, scoring eight goals from such situations, third most of all teams, and know how to turn pressure into panic and goals.

If Villa can manage the right amount of dead balls, Arsenal could be in for a tough afternoon. In a low-scoring game, both centre-backs Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres were the outsiders, scoring the opening goal in a 40-1 win against Sky Bet.

Score prediction: 1-1

Bournemouth vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6 here!

Bournemouth’s defeat against Everton was for me the worst performance of Andoni Iraola’s tenure. If you didn’t know who the manager was, you wouldn’t guess it was Iraola’s team.

It lacked all the basic principles he looks for in a football team: forward passing, tempo, pressing and intent. His team is at a stalemate. They have lost four of their last five games and conceded 13 goals.

Iraola is truly a genius and will get it right and start finding the equation again, but his football is all about playing with courage and belief and confidence, so if a few players start taking a step back, the whole structure could become very fightable. Chelsea may find it here and find some of the 11/10 value to win on Sky Bet.

Score prediction: 1-3

Everton vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – Super 6s here!

When the football teams of Sean Dyche and David Moyes clash, Goal tends to pack up and call it a night. Yes, I pretended to be shocked too.

Their philosophies overlap with each other. Delay the match as much as possible, deny space, win duels, control territory, and push the match into close battles. Both are friends of under goal bettors.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings between Moyes’ and Dyche’s teams, only 10 goals have been scored, or the equivalent of 1.5 goals per game, with six of those games scoring less than 1.5 goals.

For the game to fall below that line again it would be 2/1 on Sky Bet.

Score prediction: 0-0

Manchester City vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6 here!

If there’s ever a weekend when the Premier League breaks the script and it’s shocking, it’s this weekend, the first gameweek after the December midweek schedule. His legs were heavy, his rotation was erratic, and the odds-on favorite that was thought to be a “banker” suddenly looked normal.

Over the past few seasons, the last 15 teams that were odds-on for this very gameweek all failed to win by more than one point. No one can justify that price. Manchester City were part of that sample size, beating Luton 2-1 despite winning 1/9 of their matches in the 23/24 season.

And City may fall right into the trap this week, still juggling rotations, exploring defensive cohesion and the looming appeal of Real Madrid.

Sunderland, who beat Chelsea and drew with Liverpool and Arsenal this season, are worth a Sky Bet win at 9/1, but their shrewd play against a +2 handicap at 11/10 will be key for them.

Score Prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows Best Bet: Sunderland +2 Handicap (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Newcastle vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6 here!

This is a very different version of the Kyle Walker we saw at Manchester City. At Burnley, he was often found defending in far more open space, and the numbers show exactly how much strain that is putting on his aging limbs.

And that tension turns into a foul. There are many.

Walker has committed 16 fouls in his last 10 games. And there are few wingers in the league who attack defenders with the tempo and directness that Anthony Gordon does.

He has committed 2.7 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, an elite figure for a wide attacker, and loves to drive hard at full-back.

If Walker commits two or more fouls again, he’s too high at 7/4 on Sky Bet.

Score prediction: 3-0 | Jones knows best bet: Kyle Walker fouls +2 (7/4 at Sky Bet)

Tottenham v Brentford, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6 here!

If the football gods had a sense of humour, and they’ve always had one, then playing against a Brentford team led by the set-piece coach Thomas Frank hired at Brentford will feel like a half-written script.

Frank left Brentford as a man who helped establish a set-piece philosophy that was the envy of the league. Now he is in the opposite dugout, and although the new team is still correcting many shortcomings, this looks like a reminder of Keith Andrews’ mastery of set-pieces.

Football is a fun old game and either Nathan Collins (12/1 Sky Bet) or Sepp van den Berg (11/1) scoring would tickle my betting balance.

Score prediction: 1-2

Leeds vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6s here!

Leeds have won 5-2 on aggregate against Manchester City and Chelsea since manager Daniel Farke switched to a 5-3-2 in the second half of the game against Manchester City. For someone who has received a lot of punishment for not being flexible enough, he has silenced that noise to a large extent.

Leeds felt like a wall was closing in on Falke, and they faced this match against Liverpool with faith and momentum. Elland Road will see this as another free-swinging type of night where just a challenge to ruffle Liverpool’s feathers may be enough to shake the Reds out of the game again.

One thing we learned from last week is that winning against West Ham doesn’t mean the crisis is over. It looks like a great bet for Leeds to attack as they aim for a double chance at evens on Sky Bet.

Score Prediction: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Leeds Double Chance (Even with Sky Bet)

Brighton vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Freddie Potts has made a huge impression since stepping into West Ham’s midfield, adding much-needed steel, aggression and tenacity to areas that were lacking under manager Graham Potter. The midfielder has been fouled eight times in his last four starts and has averaged 1.8 fouls per game in his last 31 starts for the club.

Since the start of last season, only three teams have committed more fouls than Brighton, who play a very high-tempo and aggressive game in midfield. Being fouled at least twice in the pot at 5/4 on Sky Bet is a tasty prop to attack.

Score prediction: 1-1

Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

This is usually the part of the season where Marco Silva’s team finds its rhythm and reaches its best performance level. While other teams such as Crystal Palace have struggled on multiple fronts, Silva’s side will play with even more of an edge. In the period following the last international break and Boxing Day, Silva won 19 games in the Premier League with a winning percentage of 52 per cent. This is a big number for a club that has high hopes for Fulham.

One of the lesser-known victories was the 1-0 home win against Sunderland. The metrics behind this win were very strong, winning the expected goals contest 2.16 to 0.17 and taking 24 shots, 18 of which came from inside the box. They overwhelmed teams that have proven to be very difficult opponents for Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool this season.

And Palace are the team to bet on at the right time during this busy period. It will be his fifth game in 16 days, but Oliver Glasner has made the fewest changes to a starting XI in the Premier League this season (12). Palace are a great team, but this group can’t keep up their form and continue to perform at the highest level. Fulham look good to win at 8/5 on Sky Bet.

Score prediction: 2-1

Wolves v Manchester United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Wolves fans, hold your breath, this is not great.

Wolves have the fewest points (2) after 14 games in the top division, losing their last seven Premier League games and going 495 minutes without scoring. Rob Edwards achieved the same amount of bounce as if he threw a brick on the floor.

However, in the world of soccer, such conceded goals do not last forever. Snap. And that often happens in games where the market is starting to write aspects that are not goal-oriented.

The 6-hour scoring drought is not a reflection of a team with no threats, but a team with corrections and variances. And there are few defenses better suited to give them a chance than Manchester United’s away away home at the moment. It’s no joke that United have conceded 24 goals in 12 away games since April 1 without conceding, with only Bournemouth having conceded more goals in that period. They also have an expected goals conceded rate of 1.72 per 90, the worst of any team in the Premier League so far in their last 12 games.

Both teams will score and the only one to score more than 2.5 goals will be played on Sky Bet on 10/11.

Score prediction: 2-2

Jones knows:

1pt Treble On: Sunderland +2 handicap, Leeds double chance & +2 foul by Kyle Walker (10/1 at Sky Bet)