Welcome to The Radar. Nick Wright’s Sky Sports column combines data and opinion to highlight must-know stories from the top and bottom of the Premier League. this week:
🔴Liverpool’s long passing problem
🕖 Leeds’ timely formation change
🔍 Players to watch this weekend
Liverpool’s big weakness exposed again
Mohamed Salah’s omission from Liverpool’s starting lineup for the second time in four days was the biggest talking point after the 1-1 draw with Sunderland. I’m definitely worried about his condition. But the game also highlighted a much bigger problem for Arne Slot.
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Jamie Redknapp doubts Mohamed Salah’s future at Liverpool
This was just one of many games this season in which his team struggled to deal with the opponent’s long passes. It’s been more than a month since Slott publicly admitted that the team “doesn’t have an answer” for a team that is in the long game. It looks like we’re getting a little closer to finding a solution.
According to Opta, Sunderland made 73 long passes at Anfield. This was the third highest by any team in a Premier League match this season. But it was not an unusual experience for Liverpool.
In fact, slot teams have faced four of the five games with the highest total number of long passes in each game this term, with opponents looking to exploit what has become a clear weakness for the champions.
Liverpool have so far won just one of the four games in which their opponents reached the 70-point range with long passes. This approach earned Sunderland a valuable point on Wednesday night. Crystal Palace and Manchester United could win all three.
The result is part of a noticeable pattern below the slot. Of the 13 Premier League matches in which their opponents played longer than 20 per cent of their passes, Liverpool’s win rate was just 30.8 per cent, down from 71.8 per cent in the other games.
It started at the feet of Robin Roofs against Sunderland. The goalkeeper made 31 of his 53 passes long. This was his highest score in any game this season, and he had exactly the impact he expected.
Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Roofs played 31 of his 53 passes as long passes.
One of them led to the opener, with Wilson Isidore getting the first header and Virgil van Dijk failing to deal with the loose ball, allowing Kemsuddin Talbi to shoot home. Another goal was scored in stoppage time when Rufus pushed past Isidore and should have been the winner.
This season’s Premier League has generally placed more emphasis on direct play. However, Liverpool faced long passes more often than any other team, with a rate of 18.22 per cent. Arsenal comes next with 15.67%. The average is 11.77%.
For Liverpool, this represents a dramatic change from last season, when opponents commanded just 12.08% of their long passes.
The change in approach was perplexing to Slott, but it’s actually last season, not this one, that stands out as an outlier in the wider context of Liverpool’s past decade.
Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool routinely faced a similar rate of long passes as this season. The numbers were down in his last two campaigns in charge, but not as low as in his first year in the slot.
Looking at Liverpool right now, it’s easy to see why so many teams sit deep and adopt a direct passing approach. Firstly, they will be able to avoid Liverpool’s press.
There are fewer opportunities to win the ball back high up the pitch, and the effectiveness of the press is decreasing. High turnover, pressure in possession and the final third, and counter-pressing numbers are down compared to last season.
Then there is the small question of its effectiveness at the other end of the pitch. Statistically, Van Dijk and fellow centre-back Ibrahima Konate have actually withstood the barrage of long passes well.
Van Dijk’s aerial duel success rate has increased from 72 percent last season to 78 percent this season. In Konate’s case, it rose from 70% to 72%. However, the second ball has proven problematic, with both players having to contest about 45% more aerials.
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Watch highlights of the 1-1 draw between Liverpool and Sunderland
Sunderland’s opener at Anfield was just the latest example of opponents reacting more quickly with deadly results. Jamie Carragher said in co-commentary: “Sunderland, they were sharp and intense the entire time. That goal sums it up.”
The Sky Sports pundit went on to describe Liverpool’s performance as “truly alarming”. Sunderland are becoming the latest team to exploit similar weaknesses, so it’s hard to make a different argument.
Saturday, December 6th 5pm
5:30pm kickoff
Leeds next after profits?
Unfortunately for Liverpool, more of the same is likely to happen in Saturday’s game against Leeds, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports at Elland Road.
The newly-promoted side, who almost took a point against Manchester City a few days ago, come into the game with head coach Daniel Farke sparking a small comeback after switching to a 3-4-2-1 system and helping them beat Chelsea 3-1 on Wednesday.
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Watch highlights from Leeds’ 3-1 win over Chelsea
In particular, the new formation allows Farke to combine two physically superior strikers in Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lucas Nmeka for the first time.
They scored three goals against Manchester City and Chelsea and also gave Leeds a long-term option.
Eerily for Liverpool, Farke’s side were more likely to send long passes against Chelsea than in any other game this season.
This may help you prepare for the next one.
Player Radar: Other Players to Watch
Omari Hutchinson, who joined Nottingham Forest from Ipswich for £37.5 million in the summer, has had to put up with it, but he made his first Premier League start against Wolves on Wednesday.
A brilliant performance against Molineux, where he assisted the winning goal, could earn him another chance against Everton on Saturday.
Live Radar: What’s on Sky this weekend?
Saturday Night Football sees Leeds host Liverpool in the Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event from 5pm, ahead of kick-off at 5.30pm.
Brighton and West Ham will play each other on Super Sunday, while Fulham and Crystal Palace will play against each other. Sky Sports will broadcast both Premier League and Main Event matches live from 1pm, with kick-offs at 2pm and 4.30pm.
Monday Night Football is Wolves vs Man United with kick-off from 6.30pm to 8pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Read last week’s Radar column
In my last column, I previewed the midfield battle between Moises Caicedo and Declan Rice at Stamford Bridge. After one unnecessary red card, it’s safe to say the Arsenal man came out on top in that match.
