Morgan Rodgers’ double in the second half gave the in-form Aston Villa a come-from-behind victory over struggling West Ham 3-2.
The victory means Unai Emery’s side have won their last six Premier League games and remain in contention for the title. They are still only three points behind leaders Arsenal, and have won 10 of their last 11 top-flight games, giving them the most points in the division since September 28.
However, things did not start well for the London visitors. The London Stadium rocked from the get-go as local fans remembered former captain and manager Billy Bonds just before kick-off.
Just 29 seconds later, the home side took the lead thanks to the fastest goal in the Premier League this season, beating Hugo Ekitike’s goal from Saturday’s Liverpool-Brighton clash at Anfield after just 46 seconds.
Matheus Fernandes celebrates his early goal against Aston Villa
Matheus Fernandes stole the ball from centre-back Ezri Konsa as he wandered around the line, and the Portuguese smashed home from an angle that blew the roof off the stadium for at least a few minutes.
The Hammers didn’t keep a clean sheet, but they will feel a little disappointed about the nature of Villa’s equalizer nine minutes later, when Konstantinos Mavropanos stooped and inadvertently headed past Alphonse Areola under extreme pressure from Ollie Watkins.
Konsa made another mistake at the end, coming on too late and leaving Jarrod Bowen onside, and the hosts unsurprisingly took the lead at half-time as the forward deftly touched home Freddie Potts’ shot from the edge of the area.
Despite starting the game in the bottom three and facing the Premier League’s most in-form team since the end of September, West Ham had zero xG in the first half, but it took just five minutes of the second half for Villa to equalize again.
Youri Tielemans started the move with a lung-busting run down the right, and from his cross Rodgers collected the ball and turned sharply into the box before firing all at once.
In a lively encounter, Bowen thought he had put his team back in front, but an offside flag thwarted him. And in the game against England, it was Rodgers who stole the show by scoring the astonishing winning goal with 11 minutes remaining.
Morgan Rodgers fires Aston Villa to take a 3-2 lead against West Ham
West Ham would regret falling back and almost requiring Rodgers for a let-fly from 25 yards, but Rodgers calmly carried it out and beat Arreola with a shot past the Hammers’ number 1 as Villa continued to chase Arsenal.
However, West Ham remain in the bottom three despite losing just two of their last seven league games.
Cara: “The only one better than Emery is Pep”
Jamie Carragher on Sky Sports:
“They are in a great position for the Champions League, but the longer they stay in a team with Arsenal and Manchester City, the more you think they can really win the title.
“I don’t think they will win the title, but this shows what a good manager they are. The only manager in the Premier League who is better than Unai Emery is Josep Guardiola.”
Aston Villa is destroying the xG model
Sky Sports’ Lewis Jones analyzes this as follows:
The numbers say “no” and the results keep shouting “yes”
Aston Villa’s 3-2 victory over West Ham was the latest chapter in a season of laughter over expected goals. As Unai Emery’s side march on, you can almost hear the algorithm whirring uncomfortably.
Villa scored 25 goals against an expected goal total of just 17.06 in the Premier League, losing the ‘xG battle’ at the London Stadium by 1.04 to 0.62.
Morgan Rodgers celebrates after scoring his second goal against West Ham
Morgan Rodgers’ superb strike won the game, making it Villa’s 10th goal from outside the box this season. This is three more than any other team in the Premier League.
Goal prediction models dislike long shots. And usually they are right to do so. Most end up flying to the Z row or ending up as corner flag souvenirs. But Villa are not taking shots with hope, they are taking quality shots.
The uncomfortable truth for Villa’s rivals is that this team consistently outperforms xG in shot selection, confidence and execution.
Many are expecting a setback, but the standings suggest otherwise.
The numbers don’t lie – West Ham’s defense is holding them back
Sky Sports’ Lewis Jones analyzes this as follows:
You can change the administrator. You can fine-tune the shape. However, similar issues are preventing West Ham from moving out of the relegation zone.
Since Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager, the team has conceded 1.73 goals per game, and the projected goals conceded picture paints an even grimmer picture, shipping 1.85 xGA per game. Nuno’s teams are usually characterized by a defensive organization with a sense of collective responsibility, but the same problems continue to arise.
West Ham’s defense is full of players who are unable to protect the box and allow too many chances to the opposition. The 3-2 defeat against Aston Villa summed it up perfectly. You lose concentration at moments when you have control and at critical moments.
A team with West Ham’s defensive numbers would be in danger of relegation. Historically, teams with these metrics cannot survive unless they have elite finishing and counter-attacking ability. West Ham have Jarrod Bowen but he needs support elsewhere in the box. A center back with overwhelming ball-winning ability is essential in January.
What the managers said…
West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo:
“We started very well and it was a perfect start to take the lead. Controlling the game when we’re in front is something we can’t do.”
“I wish we could have had the right solutions and given the right answers, but that’s what’s happened to us lately. We’re leading from the front and we’re allowing teams to come back.
“Victory is slipping away from us. We need a lot of effort in that area. There are many factors, there is information, but we need to do better.”
“This is why we are so sorry because this was a very important day for everyone at the club in memory of Billy Bonds.
“It was an emotional moment. It was a fitting tribute to Billy Bonds’ memory. It’s a shame it didn’t end with a win, so we can celebrate.”
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery:
“We started poorly and were behind twice, but how they responded and how we got the three points is where we are as a team.
“They are ambitious, responsible and organized within our organization. We are very happy with the way we have responded.
“The most important thing for me is how he works tactically, offensively and defensively and is scoring goals now.
“He always approaches his work with great dedication. He is physically strong and mentally strong, which helps him develop quickly and perform better.”
