Sunderland have memorable moments while Aston Villa continue to break the xG model – Premier League hits and misses | Soccer News

Sunderland’s unforgettable moments

The roads around the Stadium of Light have banners mounted on pillars celebrating important moments for Sunderland, the latest of which was Eliezer Mayenda’s opening goal in the win over West Ham on the first weekend of the season.

Perhaps it’s going too far to take a photo of Nick Waltemade outside this ground, but this was certainly a significant moment for Sunderland supporters. It was a memorable 1-0 victory over rivals Newcastle in the long-awaited derby showdown.

The club has been back and forth in League One since the two sides met in the Premier League in 2016, and in that time has seen their great rivals strengthened by new owners. But Sunderland didn’t just come back, they came back with some style.

In a game with few chances, they played with purpose and at times with aplomb, thanks to Granit Xhaka, Enzo Le Fe and Kemsudine Talbi. They outperformed their opponents, but so did their opponents. Regis Le Bris is masterminding one of this season’s storylines.

Newcastle had no way of getting through against a team that was difficult to beat but easy to watch. Sunderland sit seventh in the Premier League table, but there is reason to believe there is more to this team.

Le Bris said he can try to press high but also defend deeper. “You can now manage different shapes.” They are adding elements. The momentum is with them. There will be many more big moments if we keep the emotions of this derby win bottled up.
Adam Bate

Haaland and Man City look creepy

Manchester City weren’t perfect against Crystal Palace. Far from it. They sometimes got lucky, like the host hitting the woodwork twice. The final scoreline pleased them.

But it was an impressive three-goal victory at one of the country’s most difficult grounds, just days after what manager Josep Guardiola described as a “mentally draining” victory over Real Madrid at the Bernabéu. “It’s a good sign,” their manager said.

It was Erling Haaland who took the lead, not for the first time, as he headed home the first goal of the afternoon from a cross from Matheus Nunez. Sometimes all he needs is one chance. It was a decisive goal that changed the course of the game.

Manchester City had posed little threat up to that point, but Haaland seized his chances and remained calm for the second goal.

“Where were you at Wembley?” he asked the home fans when he saw Dean Henderson save the spot-kick in the FA Cup final. This time we definitely enjoyed the celebrations in front of the Holmesdale End.

His scoring rate is so high that seeing him find the back of the net has become a daily occurrence. He has played in the Premier League this season until he was 17 years old. Guardiola will need to rectify the shortcomings on the fly, but Haaland’s form remains ominous for his title rivals.
nick wright

Aston Villa is destroying the xG model

The numbers show no. The results keep shouting “yes”.

Aston Villa’s 3-2 victory over West Ham was the latest chapter in a season of laughter over expected goals. As Unai Emery’s side march on, you can almost hear the algorithm whirring uncomfortably. This is their 9th consecutive win in all competitions.

Villa scored 25 goals against an expected goal total of just 17.06 in the Premier League, losing the ‘xG battle’ at the London Stadium by 1.04 to 0.62.

Morgan Rodgers’ superb strike won the game, making it Villa’s 10th goal from outside the box this season. This is three more than any other team in the Premier League.

Goal prediction models dislike long shots. And usually they are right to do so. Most end up flying to the Z row or ending up as corner flag souvenirs. But Villa are not shooting with hope, they are shooting with quality.

The uncomfortable truth for Villa’s rivals is that this team consistently outperforms xG in shot selection, confidence and execution.

Many are expecting a setback, but the standings suggest otherwise.
lewis jones

Sloppy Spurs own biggest enemy

Shambles felt it was an apt description of how Spurs conceded the first goal to Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Thomas Frank said Archie Gray should not have taken the touch from the pass and was quick to defend Guglielmo Vicario. It just became a mess.

But what about when the goalkeeper allowed Callum Hudson-Odoi’s misplaced cross into the net in the second half? That “stopped the game,” the head coach admitted.

Individual errors are added to the pile. Only Wolves have scored more goals in the Premier League this season. But even as a club at the bottom of the table, Spurs cannot match the total amount of errors that led to opponents’ shots.

Sloppy Spurs. Their pass accuracy percentage ranks low in the 70s, as do their running stats, hampering their prospects of building a sustained attack to feed the front line. They had just one shot on target at the City Ground, giving them an expected goals total of 0.37.

Frank said it was a “great feeling” for the team to win back-to-back games. They didn’t play like that. The forest brought intensity. Spurs did well. “Terrible performance,” Frank said, clearly furious. However, despite the host team’s excellent play, the Spurs will lose something of their own.

It’s a familiar feeling to fans over the past few seasons.
peter smith

Palace’s chance conversion problems could continue if no relief is found in January

Manchester City’s win at Crystal Palace wasn’t a 3-0 game, but history has never given the advantage to a team that took the majority of chances without taking chances.

It all comes down to the scoreline and Palace will be looking to push themselves after this game.

Coach Oliver Glasner’s team received a lesson in clinical finishing. Man City had seven shots to Crystal Palace’s 16, but six of City’s shots were on target and four of Palace’s shots were tried by Gianluigi Donnarumma.

Jean-Philippe Mateta has been starved of goals, having not scored from open play in his last six games.

Palace’s problem is that when he isn’t scoring in the Premier League, there are few other players to provide them.

Palace’s need to enter the market in January becomes even more important as Ismaila Sarr, who was keen to help Mateta numerically, departs for AFCON.

The numbers don’t lie – West Ham’s defense is holding them back

You can change the administrator. You can fine-tune the shape. However, similar issues are preventing West Ham from moving out of the relegation zone.

Since Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager, the team has conceded 1.73 goals per game, and the projected goals conceded picture paints an even grimmer picture, shipping 1.85 xGA per game. Nuno’s teams are usually characterized by a defensive organization with a sense of collective responsibility, but the same problems continue to arise.

West Ham’s defense is full of players who are unable to protect the box and allow too many chances to the opposition. The 3-2 defeat against Aston Villa summed it up perfectly. You lose concentration at moments when you have control and at critical moments.

A team with West Ham’s defensive numbers would be in danger of relegation. Historically, teams with these metrics cannot survive unless they have elite finishing and counter-attacking ability. West Ham have Jarrod Bowen but he needs support elsewhere in the box. A center back with overwhelming ball-winning ability is essential in January.
lewis jones

Calvert-Lewin rediscovers best form for Leeds

When Leeds signed him on a free transfer in the summer transfer window, there was some skepticism as to whether Dominic Calvert-Lewin would be able to rediscover his best form, but the past four games have proven many wrong.

This is Calvert-Lewin’s most prolific run in the Premier League since 2020, when he scored in five consecutive games between September and October. He was in the England team at the time.

It remains to be seen whether manager Thomas Tuchel will consider the 28-year-old for a recall, but it shows how far Calvert-Lewin has come since joining Leeds. Daniel Farke has said the England manager can call him at any time to discuss the striker.

Calvert-Lewin’s header at Brentford earned them a point, which could prove important in the final stages of the season. If he continues to produce results like this, he might become the star player of the summer.

Leeds must keep him fit to give him the best chance of survival. Calvert-Lewin is fast becoming one of the first names on Falke’s team sheet.
Ginny Boswell

Henderson’s experience focuses on goals

Brentford’s performance was not one that would have home fans itching to go home to watch the highlights. In fact, when the final whistle rang out, several boos rang out around Gtech.

If there’s any player who can wear the red and white shirt with pride, it’s Jordan Henderson. In his 600th appearance in senior English football, he darted into the penalty area to give the Bees a somewhat unfair lead.

It was the crowning glory of his efforts. Often the 35-year-old was the only member of the home side who remained calm on the ball and able to break through the lines with a pass. He was the only player in the starting lineup that didn’t include Mikel Damsgaard who seemed to be making progress.

Henderson has been on the receiving end of the stick at various stages of his career. As Liverpool captain, his game was simpler than those around him. His fixation on the England image late in his career also irritated some, especially when he was playing in what was considered a lower league.

Now back in England’s top flight, Henderson has once again proven how valuable he is to his new employers.

He still has what it takes to be at the highest level and with the World Cup just around the corner, he could be the deciding factor in whether Thomas Tuchel secures a ticket to North America.
Callum Bishop