To many, Israel may appear to be the winner, the de facto hegemon in the Middle East. They have waged war on several fronts simultaneously and dealt deadly blows to their enemies. At the same time, it continues to receive significant support from a wide range of Western voters and leaders, particularly those who face real challenges from their own far-right parties.
But behind the scenes, Israel is disintegrating. The United Nations, led by the United States and also including Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, is gradually removing Gaza from Israeli control and putting pressure on Israel from territorial flight in Syria and Lebanon.
Although this is publicly opposed by the Israeli government, it appears to have been carried out with the tacit approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who perceived the threat of war to be more advantageous to him than war itself. This is especially so after failing to achieve its “war goals” of destroying Hamas and returning hostages alive. It appears that Israeli forces may have killed many more hostages than originally assumed.
The unconditional support Israel once received from the United States and Europe has diminished, as has cooperation with Gulf states. The Palestinians, like the Muslim Brotherhood, have been perceived for decades as a greater threat to the regional status quo than the Israelis.
Where Western leaders once competed over who would be the first to denounce Hamas and praise Israel’s fight for “Western values,” these same leaders are now much quieter as evidence of Israeli genocide continues to pour out of Gaza. Even US President Donald Trump speaks less about Hamas than he used to.
It is clearly difficult for Western leaders to accept that Israel has become an agent of regional chaos. It would be much easier to gradually and carefully remove the levers and come to terms with the new reality, without forcing Israel’s leaders to publicly lose face. There is no need for direct confrontation with Israel. Sometimes just treating them coldly or making them wait is enough.
Despite protests to the contrary, Israel needs international cooperation to attack and occupy Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran. As a result, its business is gradually shrinking. The Israeli military is currently busy “hunting” those who previously took part in attacks on Israelis, rather than engaging in strategic expansion. These are Israel’s capabilities in this new order.
Israel may also be losing on the diplomatic front. Hamas continues to negotiate, but the Israeli government is at an impasse. If this continues, Israel will face a reality that it did not actively shape. For example, there is talk of Israelis being forced to pay for the removal of rubble created by the Israeli military during its more than two-year razing of Gaza.
Israel may be losing its position as a hegemonic power in the Middle East, but Israeli society is focusing all of its energies on escalating internal conflicts “for the soul of Israel” and its illegal occupation of Palestinian territory. Israelis are losing the belief that there is a world outside Israel’s borders. Many believe that if such a world existed, it would passionately hate Israel regardless of its actions.
Israeli discourse has increasingly focused on issues ranging from threats against Jews to the Israeli collective, abandoning talk of “geostrategic” upheaval that was common just six months ago. There is also an overwhelming disregard for world realities and public opinion.
Consider the new scandal plaguing the Israeli Air Force (IAF). As future fighter pilots prepare to graduate after two years of training, they undergo a week of “imprisonment simulation,” generally considered the most difficult part of their training. They were then sent to a hotel in a secret location to recuperate.
The cadets revealed the hotel location to families visiting their sons over the weekend. Some of them drank alcohol. Their commander even allowed them to drink alcohol.
All cadets will be subject to disciplinary action. IAF Commander Thomas Barr has made it clear that “there will be no leniency on issues that are grounded in the values that are the bedrock of the Corps’ ethos.”
This is implosion. The IAF is responsible for much of the devastation in the Gaza Strip, including bombing civilian homes and infrastructure, horrifying the world and stripping the Israeli military of its “most moral” claim. Nevertheless, the IAF still talks about “values” and “spirit”. The pilots are the main force in the genocide, but the key is unauthorized drinking.
Cadets and pilots in general were cast in the media as representatives of the spoiled old Israeli elite, morally bankrupt and rudderless compared to the new elite who set Gaza on fire and died serving “the people of Israel.”
In response, the pilots collectively praised their loyalty to the government and the security of the Israeli state, and their determination to continue their genocide for as long as the “democratically elected government” (which they themselves have repeatedly protested) dictates.
Perhaps more importantly, Israel is losing its internal coherence. Unvaccinated children are dying from measles and influenza. Gangs of wandering teenagers are attacking Palestinians who drive buses and sweep the streets. A Palestinian citizen in Israel is killed in a gunfight between criminal gangs. Veterans of the Gaza “war” are committing suicide in unprecedented numbers.
The public mental health system is already collapsing under strain, with appointments scheduled more than a year in advance. Classes in state schools are being canceled every day because teachers are away caring for their own children. The Education Ministry has seen 25 senior professional leaders resign during Netanyahu’s reign, most of them citing political interference in their jobs. In Tel Aviv, city workers are encouraged to volunteer once a week at the city’s kindergartens and daycare centers, as qualified staff are hard to find.
There is a shortage of judges because the Minister of Justice does not speak to the Chief Justice, and the appointment of new judges requires approval from both parties. Two ministers hold nine ministerial portfolios because ultra-Orthodox parties have left the coalition and will not return unless the government they form rejects forced military conscription for Haredi Jews.
The state of Israel is rapidly becoming an empty shell. The system is broken, civil servants retire, and only political appointees serving their patrons are left to fill the void. The emerging Israel would be institutionally, financially, and culturally impoverished, destined for internal ruin.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
