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Home » Beware of confirmation bias in November US employment statistics
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Beware of confirmation bias in November US employment statistics

Editor-In-ChiefBy Editor-In-ChiefDecember 17, 2025No Comments3 Mins Read
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A “Recruitment” sign is posted in the window of a restaurant in Manhattan, New York City on December 16, 2025.

Spencer Pratt | Getty Images

The US employment report for November is of interest to everyone.

Those who believe in the weakness of the economy will highlight the higher-than-expected unemployment rate and the drop in employment numbers in October.

Supporters of a strong economy, on the other hand, will focus on November’s better-than-expected job growth and point out, as CNBC’s Jeff Cox pointed out, that the rise in unemployment is primarily due to an increase in the labor force.

Traders largely kept their outlook for a rate cut in January unchanged, with no definitive verdict on the state of the labor market. According to the CME FedWatch tool, it’s now 25.5%, up about 1 percentage point from before November’s employment report was released.

“Today’s data paints a picture of the economy taking a breather,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “Job growth continues, but cracks are appearing. Consumers are still standing, but not at full speed.”

This ambiguity was also reflected in the market. Major U.S. indexes were mixed. S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average They fell by 0.24% and 0.62%, respectively. Nasdaq Composite resulting in a slight increase of 0.23%. tesla The stock price closed at an all-time high.

Whether you’re a bull or a bear, Tuesday’s tea leaves will show you what you want to see, but beware of confirmation bias.

What you need to know today

The S&P 500 fell for the third straight session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell on the U.S. side on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose. european Stocks 600 Defense stocks were the biggest losers, falling 0.47%.

US job growth exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 64,000 jobs in November, beating the Dow Jones forecast for an increase of 45,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021.

Tesla stock closed at an all-time high. Tesla stock closed at $489.88, up 21% since the beginning of the year, after rising 3.1% on Tuesday. Investors welcomed CEO Elon Musk’s admission that the company is testing driverless robotaxis.

President Trump orders the blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela. “The Venezuelan regime has been designated a foreign terrorist organization,” the US president wrote on US Truth Social on Tuesday.

(PRO) Eyewear brands are the AI ​​winners? citibank The bank reiterated its “buy” rating on the stock on Monday, saying it will be a leader in the AI ​​glasses market, adding that the market will grow by more than 100% annually until 2034.

And finally…

Candidates prepare to take the general subject written exam for the 2025 civil service exam at Nanjing Forestry University in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on December 8, 2024.

Cost Photo | Null Photo | Getty Images

Why China’s young people are flocking to government jobs in record numbers

Last month, 3.7 million applicants across the country took China’s annual civil service exam, including graduates of the country’s top universities. However, only about one in 100 people are expected to secure a place in the government’s 38,100 entry-level roles starting next year.

Many were willing to accept this possibility, even as the economic downturn and deteriorating business confidence dimmed the outlook for private sector employment. The unemployment rate for urban residents aged 16 to 24 in China has been above 17% since July, compared to about 10% in the United States.

— Anique Bao



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