Given how much support US President Donald Trump had for the Middle Eastern country during his first term, few expected him to abandon Israel during his second term.
However, given the still-rising death toll from Israel’s genocidal war in the Gaza Strip and the accompanying international condemnation, his continued support for Israel with all his might has upset some of the president’s supporters.
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While U.S. aid to Israel continues unabated, it is doubly offensive to Israel in the face of a still-sluggish economy, a deepening price crisis, rising health care costs, and a U.S. government shutdown.
That assistance goes beyond financial. This includes blocking measures to criticize Israel at the United Nations, holding leaders accountable under international law, and even punishing those who take unilateral actions against Israel, including at the International Criminal Court, which continues to face harsh sanctions from the United States.
So how extensive is U.S. support for Israel, and how much could it cost both President Trump and the Republican Party?
How much aid did President Trump give to Israel?
a lot.
The U.S. government gives Israel $3.8 billion a year to spend on U.S. weapons under a 10-year commitment overseen by former U.S. President Barack Obama in 2019.
In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington would send $4 billion in emergency military aid to Israel. He boasted that the Trump administration had approved $12 billion in U.S. military sales to Israel since taking office, arguing that he was a departure from the administration of his predecessor, Joe Biden, who was also overwhelmingly pro-Israel.
The United States has given Israel more than $21 billion since the beginning of the genocidal war in Gaza, according to the latest report from the War Expenses Project, released in October.
How much damage has this done to President Trump’s MAGA movement?
More than you think.
Some of the most important figures in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement have already rebelled against President Trump’s unflinching support for Israel. But this is not entirely out of concern for the more than 70,000 people Israel has killed in Gaza to date. Rather, many of their objections focus on the costs of supporting Israel and its potential risks.
In June, former Fox News personality Tucker Carlson, a leading MAGA figure and Trump ally, publicly broke with the president over the issue. He wrote on social media, “The real divide is not between those who support Israel and those who support Iran or the Palestinians. The real divide is between those who casually encourage violence and those who seek to stop it: between warmongers and peace negotiators.”
Another Trump aide, former aide Steve Bannon, also questioned the “special relationship,” saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “betrayed” the United States by launching an attack on Iran knowing that Iran did not have the necessary means for a complete victory.
Later that year, after Netanyahu suggested that being anti-Israel was incompatible with joining the MAGA movement, Bannon responded with what commentators described as a “scorched-earth” approach, appearing to address the Israeli prime minister directly via social media. Bannon used colorful language to say that the American people don’t care about Netanyahu’s opinion on MAGA, but are interested in exposing the prime minister’s “pathological lies” so that the U.S. doesn’t get into “(Israel’s) next war.”
Has President Trump’s support for Israel hurt his political base?
Until a certain point.
While many Republican figures remain loyal, the harshest criticism — and one of the few on the American right to accuse Israel of genocide — comes from one of its most ardent allies, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
After multiple breakdowns over living expenses and the release of files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Greene drew the ire of President Trump on social media, calling out the “genocide, humanitarian crisis and famine in Gaza.”
President Trump responded to the senator’s criticism by branding Marjorie a “traitor” Greene.
Although Greene has since announced that she is leaving Congress, she remains highly regarded by many in the MAGA movement, who see her as supporting an “America First” policy rather than an “Israel First” policy.
How much electoral loss could this potentially cost him?
That’s not certain.
A new poll released this week by YouGov and the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project shows that a plurality of Republicans surveyed support letting the 10-year aid deal expire when it expires. Sentiment was even more pronounced among younger Republicans, with 53% of 18- to 44-year-olds in favor of scrapping the deal altogether.
Dov Waxman, a professor of Israel studies at the University of California, told Al Jazeera in October that “even before the Gaza war, support for Israel was decreasing and sympathy for the Palestinians was increasing among American youth, including young evangelical Christians.” “Israel’s actions during the Gaza war significantly accelerated the decline in support for Israel among these major groups.”
But support for Israel is hurting Trump not only within his traditional base. Polls show this trend is even more pronounced among evangelical Christians, one of the most traditionally pro-Israel elements of his support base. In October, the Israeli government hired a newly formed public relations firm, Faith Through Works, to, in its own words, “counter the low approval ratings of American evangelical Christians for the state of Israel.”
Earlier this month, more than 1,000 American Christian pastors and influencers visited Israel, making it “the largest group of American Christian leaders to visit Israel since its founding.”
Importantly, the visit was organized by American author Mike Evans. He is reportedly an evangelical ally of President Trump and a longtime confidant of Prime Minister Netanyahu.
But as Gaza recedes from U.S. headlines, Israel’s importance in U.S. discourse may fade with it.
The upcoming US election will likely be influenced by a myriad of issues, including Israel, but will likely focus on the economy and other domestic concerns.
And if faced with electoral defeat ahead of the 2028 presidential election, Republicans may decide to set the issue aside to focus on confronting Democrats, both supporters and opponents of Israel.
