Football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight on the entire Premier League card and predicts the 13/1 weekend treble on Sky Bet.
Newcastle vs Chelsea, Saturday 12:30pm
Newcastle’s injury crisis has had a huge impact on this market, with Chelsea currently 29/20 favorites to win at Sky Bet. This amount seems small to me, but it’s still a gamble from a team news perspective, as whoever slots in at right-back for Newcastle will be under serious pressure if Alejandro Garnacho starts.
All signs suggest Lewis Miley is set to deputize for that side, with Sky Bet set to book on 5/1, but this is a price that simply doesn’t tie in with the task he faces. When Garnacho sings, he’s a real stress test for defenders.
Since the start of the 23/24 Premier League season while at Manchester United, Garnacho has drawn a card every 206 minutes. This is elite territory for attackers and not random data. He plays with an edge, attacks defenders with pace and is very theatrical under contact.
Score prediction: 1-1
Even though Burnley are away from home, the old narrative of being brusque, toothless and content to just compete still carries on. However, focusing on Bournemouth’s defensive figures of late, this trip to the south coast looks much more open than the price suggests.
Andoni Iraola’s side have conceded 21 goals in their last nine games, but it’s not because of an unusual result or a flurry of red cards. This is a structural issue and revolves around the centre-back being too exposed and unable to defend with the same one-on-one authority as Dean Huyssen or Ilya Zabarny.
The odds of Burnley scoring over 1.5 goals are 100/30 at Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-2
The well is still full of value, so we’ll go back to the well to face Brighton here. Despite their fluidity and beautiful patterns, Brighton simply don’t like playing against teams that go direct and change direction.
Under Fabian Hürzeler, Brighton won 19 of their 36 Premier League games when their opponents completed less than 15% of their passes, but only won three of their 17 other games. Sunderland are fifth in terms of long passing among all Premier League teams this season and are likely to adopt a style of play that will cause problems for Brighton.
The away team is 6/5 on Double Chance Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-1
The standout bet in terms of price here is Manchester City to win the card race at 7/2 on Sky Bet. This means City will need to be shown more cards than West Ham to win the pot.
Despite the high price tag, the bet has paid off in eight of City’s last 13 games in all competitions, showing that they are bringing a cynical edge to their recent games. This included a similar home game against Leeds, which they won 4-1 in the card race despite being outsiders in the market.
Over the past eight games, West Ham’s threats from Jarrod Bowen and Crisencio Somerville have led to card-worthy action from defenders, with opponents averaging two cards per game.
Score prediction: 3-1
Wolves vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Wolves are top of the table for fouls this season, but Matt Doherty has hit his stride since returning to Arsenal, committing a whopping five fouls.
He will be tasked with silencing Kevin Shade. Kevin Shade has been Brentford’s top player this season with a foul rate of 1.62/90. This makes Doherty’s cost of 5/4 with two or more fouls on Sky Bet very attractive.
Score prediction: 1-2
Tottenham v Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play in the Super 6 and win £750,000!
Arne Slott has scored 3.5 goals or fewer in 12 of Liverpool’s last 17 wins away from home. This is a relevant trend when assessing how best to support a pro-Liverpool angle in this match.
We all know that Tottenham have problems in their forward areas and that they can create quality chances. Their key attacking metrics all have the look of a team that should be fighting relegation: 9.6 shots per game, 3.3 shots on target per game, 1.0 expected goals per 90, and 1.8 big chances created per game. This is at the root of the fourth worst attacking process in the Premier League. Another blank may follow here.
You can get 21/10 within 3.5 goals of a Liverpool win on Sky Bet. This is a great boost for Liverpool to win at evens.
Score prediction: 0-2
It’s an attractive line as our old friends Arsenal won by less than 3.5 goals at 6/5 on Sky Bet.
Arsenal don’t play goal-hungry soccer. Quite the opposite, really. Across all competitions, they have averaged just 2.7 goals per 90 minutes per game, a surprisingly modest result for a side perceived as a free-flowing team. Mikel Arteta’s side have scored 3.5 goals in 15 of their wins this season, including last weekend’s win against Wolves, where they beat the odds in dramatic fashion.
With Everton certain to be without Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye, and potentially Keiynan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish as well, manager David Moyes will have to go back to basics to get results. They defend deep, involve the crowd and try to cause problems from set pieces. That won’t be enough to work against this Arsenal machine.
Score prediction: 0-1
The standings tell us little about this game, but the calendar tells us everything. Both teams were at full throttle, fresh and motivated, and Palace showed they were the better team.
But with three games in six days, different opponents, different tactical demands and a trip to Elland Road, one of the most physically demanding environments in English football, the situation is definitely tilted in Leeds’ favor.
Palace’s schedule is unique and demanding. And what we have seen from Daniel Farke’s side in recent weeks is that they are making the games hard-fought.
This is not a gamble on Palace’s quality. That’s a gamble on the schedule they’re forced into. At 8/5 on Sky Bet, Leeds are the best bet on the table for the weekend.
Score prediction: 3-1 | Jones knows best bet: Leeds to beat Crystal Palace (8/5 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Manchester United, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports
This is ready for chaos.
Both teams rank in the top four in xG generated per 90 when trailing in games. This is where Villa really succeeds when it comes to data.
What this means is that if the scoreline changes early on, the game is not decided. It stretches, opens up, and turns into an end-to-end spectacle of two dangerous attacks.
Villa have picked up 15 points from being out of position this season, more than any other team in the Premier League. That’s not lucky. It’s the mentality, the style and the intent.
If they fall behind, they will double down on their attack patterns instead of defending themselves. This philosophy is further enhanced at Villa Park. Facing a Manchester United team that has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game this season and has played well in a transitional period shows they have the potential to be a formidable opponent.
If both teams score at least 2.5 goals on 10/11 on Sky Bet, a winner awaits.
Score prediction: 3-2 | Jones knows Best bet: Both teams to score & 2.5 goals or more (10/11, Sky Bet)
Fulham v Nottingham Forest v Fulham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Marco Silva looked at his lowest after watching Fulham crash out of the Carabao Cup in midweek.
Another chance to challenge for a trophy has come. And the harsh reality for Fulham is that Silva, whose contract expires this summer, has probably outgrown them by now. He is a very ambitious coach.
Ask yourself these questions. Would you rather keep Fulham in the middle of the table every season or have a chance of getting a job that puts honor and playing in Europe in your sights?Silva has made a crack at it.
Monday, December 22nd 6:30pm
Kickoff at 8pm
And the growing uncertainty about his situation could spell trouble for Fulham over the next six months or so. For a club notorious for bringing tools down when it’s safe in the middle of the table, that regression could happen sooner.
In contrast, there is a freshness and enthusiasm to the way Nottingham Forest are playing under Sean Dyche. The return of Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic as a pair is expected to see a rapid rise in the standings. At Sky Bet, Forest Draw is a no bet at 11/10 and is a tasty bet.
Score prediction: 1-2 | Jones knows best bet: Nottingham Forest to win (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bet is…
1pt Treble On: Aston Villa vs Man United, Nottingham Forest win Leeds, both teams score & win by 2.5 goals or more (13/1, with Sky Bet)
