The latest CNBC Supply Chain Survey provides new data on how the global trade war has affected this year’s holiday shopping season and another sign that consumer spending is holding steady amid affordability concerns across the U.S. economy. However, the research data also suggests that the freight market remains in a vulnerable position heading into 2026. Dow Jones Traffic Average It recently hit a 52-week high.
Overall, nearly half (44%) of respondents said more holiday products are being shipped from warehouses and distribution centers compared to last year. One-third of respondents said fewer items are coming out of warehouses. The majority of respondents who said their cargo volume had increased said the increase was between 5% and 10% in volume.
The volume of products shipped from warehouses to stores and customers also reveals which product categories are emerging as winners and losers this holiday shopping season. Home goods, apparel, and promotional items top the list, with a soft outlook for luxury goods (both aspirational and traditional) and furniture (both high-end and low-end).
The majority of respondents said their warehouses had inventory levels of two to three months, and one-third of respondents said they had several weeks of product in storage.
The survey, which was conducted from Dec. 4 to Dec. 4, included companies and organizations representing logistics providers, freight shippers and retailers. 11.
Despite trade wars and tariff fluctuations, “retailers and brands successfully navigated the obstacles, captured peak customer demand and achieved sales volumes comparable to last year,” said Craig Foreman, president of e-commerce for DHL Supply Chain North America.
According to the survey, the number of e-commerce vacations in particular is increasing further, with 53% of respondents reporting a year-over-year increase. Only 18% of respondents reported a decline in e-commerce product sales volume, with the remainder saying sales volume remained flat.
In e-commerce, the advantages and disadvantages of the same product category are obvious. Survey respondents said consumers ordered promotional items, home goods and apparel the most. Furniture and luxury goods once again lagged behind.
After the United States and China announced a trade cease-fire agreement negotiated between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October, there was a muted response within the U.S. supply chain and cargo industry, according to the survey results. The suspension of the trade war between the two countries and the escalation of tariffs prevented another surge in replenishment orders for holiday goods, according to the study. Retailers were content with inventory levels that had already been brought forward from June and July after initial tariff levels set in April for many countries, including China, were lowered.
Supply chain instability will continue until 2026
Amid the harsh economic conditions, supply chain instability is expected to continue. Even though consumers continue to spend and inflation remains lower than many economists expected due to tariffs, the outlook for cargo volumes is mixed and the retail industry’s price outlook remains in flux.
“After a year of uncertainty, procurement and logistics managers are proceeding with caution as we enter 2026,” said Stephen Lamar, president of the American Apparel and Footwear Association. “Permanent tariffs and uncertainty will continue to challenge the ability of fashion supply chains to avoid higher costs that are ultimately passed on to U.S. consumers in higher prices,” Lamar said.
Recent category winners are expected to experience a decline in orders given inventory levels. “In the U.S., we have observed soft demand patterns, particularly for household goods and apparel, with some companies reducing inventory levels due to uncertainty. However, at some point inventory will be replenished and the industry needs to be ready to respond to this,” said Michael Aldwell, executive vice president, ocean logistics, Kuehne & Nagel.
Overall U.S. imports have been steadily declining in recent months. Data from cargo intelligence firm Sonar, which tracks global container volumes to the U.S., shows restocking costs are higher, down 18% year-over-year. Logistics companies generate revenue based on the amount of freight they move, so inventory management has a direct impact on freight volumes and freight business prospects.
Forty-two percent of survey respondents said cargo volumes were flat in the fourth quarter, nearly a quarter (24%) said cargo volumes were down quarter-on-quarter, and a further 34% said there was some increase. However, the picture is mixed as we head into the new year, with roughly equal proportions of respondents saying they expect freight volumes to increase (52%) or remain flat or decline (48% total).
“We expect the market to remain volatile in 2026 due to trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and oversupply as new container ships are deployed over the next two years as overall demand slows,” Aldwell said.
Although not a majority, a significant share of survey respondents (43%) say the freight market is in recession or likely to be in recession in 2025.
“We expect trucking company closures to continue to increase due to lower freight volumes,” said Paul Brasher, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics.
Up-and-down cargo photos tell the story of 2025.
“Throughout 2025, we experienced a period of year-over-year volume declines,” Foreman said. “We are still in the midst of peak activity, so it remains to be seen how this peak season will shape the year ahead. However, the insights and lessons learned in 2025 will be invaluable as retailers and brands refine their strategies for next year,” he added.
Brian Kobza, chief commercial officer at IMC Logistics, said: “A variety of uncertainties, including tariff levels, the impact of AI, and the many possible global economic changes, pose significant challenges to forecasting 2026.” “According to our customers, U.S. consumers remain resilient and inventory levels have not increased. Together, these factors provide an optimistic outlook for success in 2026,” Kobza said.
Utilization of AI in logistics
All respondents said they would use more artificial intelligence in their business. When it comes to implementing AI use cases, predictive analytics tops the list, followed by inventory management, route optimization, warehouse automation, dynamic pricing, and AI-powered robots.
“Plans need to include both physical and digital infrastructure, as visibility is the difference between winning and losing, and the deployment of technology and AI ensures structured data that can be incorporated into decision-making and automates complex workflows,” Aldwell said, adding that retailers still often lack coordinated visibility across stores and warehouses.
Respondents were divided on the idea of AI replacing jobs, with a slight majority (53%) saying no.
Noah Hoffman, Vice President of North American Ground Transportation, commented on the broader level of freight planning. CH Robinsonshippers are rethinking their inventory strategies. “They are moving away from a ‘just in case’ pandemic-era model to a hybrid approach that limits transportation costs and places goods closer to customers. That means evaluating tradeoffs in sourcing location, inventory placement, and transportation.”
AI is playing a role in that change, and CH Robinson is seeing an increase in customers using its agency supply chain.
“We have built a fleet of more than 30 AI agents that perform millions of delivery tasks on behalf of our customers, from price quoting to tracking,” said Hoffman. “Artificial intelligence maximizes value and minimizes waste. Price quotes are provided in 32 seconds. Orders that used to take up to four hours to arrive are now processed in 90 seconds. …Time is money at every step… Research with MIT found that shippers who arrive late to market can pay 23-35% more,” Hoffman added.
Amanda Rasmussen, chief commercial officer of DHL Global Forwarding, said data is the key to competitiveness and productivity. “Digital visibility, data-driven predictions and collaborative planning across modes are becoming key elements of resilience,” she said. “We are also beginning to see sustainability considerations begin to influence network design as customers seek lower-carbon routes and smarter integration options.”
Changes in global supply chains
New “global trade hotspots” are emerging as tariffs evolve and supply chains undergo long-term restructuring, Rasmussen said. “Markets such as Mexico and Turkey are gaining momentum through nearshoring. Southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam and Malaysia are benefiting from diversification away from China. Markets such as China, India and Saudi Arabia continue to attract strong domestic and international investment,” he said.
More than 90% of CNBC survey respondents said supply chain sourcing continues to change, including Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand, as well as Latin American countries such as India, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia.
Accelerating dual sourcing strategies is helping U.S. companies gain visibility and planning for their shipments. “We expect strong demand for sea freight in the lead-up to the Lunar New Year,” Rasmussen said. “Sectors such as data center logistics, life sciences and healthcare remain important growth engines for air cargo,” she added.
Reshoring, particularly to the United States, is also expected to continue, with just over half (53%) of respondents saying they will see more of that activity as a result of tariffs.
