Ace Aguirre noticed something strange after taking two bites of oatmeal on the morning of November 4th. Mud seeps onto the living room floor of a bungalow in Kotkot, a village in Cebu province in the Philippines.
The moments that followed will be etched in Aguirre’s memory forever. His living room furniture is floating. For a few scary minutes, I wasn’t sure if I would be able to pry the front door open. My son was praying to God as the water rose up to his chest. The girl, who can’t swim, was perched high on a pillar as water and cars rushed just inches from her feet.
“I don’t know how we could have survived,” Aguirre told CNN. “A few things didn’t go our way and a lot of people could have died.”
That morning, Typhoon Karmaegi dumped more than a month of rain, causing Cebu’s rivers and waterways to swell and causing devastating flash floods that killed more than 230 people across the country.
One of the dead was Aguirre’s neighbor, a mother of two, who drowned after locking herself in her kitchen. He tried to save her, but was unable to do so in time.
Torrential rains and deadly floods are nothing new in the Philippines, where disasters often occur in the rainforest. But in recent months, revelations that politicians, officials and contractors have plundered billions of dollars from nationwide programs meant to reduce the impact have rattled the country.
Before the deadly floods, Cebu civic groups had called for an audit of flood control projects along the Cot Cot River upstream from where Aguirre lives, according to local media.
The scandal has implicated dozens of senior politicians and government officials who allegedly accepted kickbacks to seal the deal. These revelations have sparked mass youth-led anti-government protests against corruption and wealthy elites, similar to those seen this year in Indonesia and Nepal.
Mr. Aguirre had been watching the political theater unfold far away in the capital Manila for months, but he never expected it to unfold right before his eyes.
“Suddenly you become a direct victim,” he said. “It’s a different story.”
In the wake of the November floods, Cebu Governor Pamela Balicuatro called for an investigation into the province’s 26 billion pesos ($443 million) flood control project, which Manila authorities acknowledged was “supposed to have been done” by the time the disaster struck.
Later, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited the area and promised to clean and clean waterways and unclog drainage systems in time for next year’s rainy season.
Last July, he revealed that more than 545 billion pesos ($9.2 billion) worth of government flood control projects were plagued by corruption.
He said internal audits had found that many of the 10,000 projects the government has overseen since taking office in 2022 were constructed using substandard materials or were not used at all, calling them “ghost projects.”
CNN has reached out to the Philippine government for comment.
Sol Iglesias, an associate professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, said when Marcos Jr. exposed the fraud, he “opened a can of worms” that then spiraled out of control.
Iglesias said testimony in the House and Senate revealed “an entire system of looting and corruption facilitated by the very institutions that were responsible for budgeting, planning, implementing, monitoring and checking the financial health of infrastructure.”
Finance Secretary Raf Recto told a Senate hearing in September that up to 118.5 billion pesos ($2 billion) in flood control funds may have been lost to corruption over the past two years, according to the Associated Press.
Marcos Jr. has vowed to jail at least 37 lawmakers and other officials involved in the scam by Christmas, with seven people so far jailed. The government also froze about 12 billion pesos ($204 million) in assets of individuals linked to the scandal.
The scandal excited ordinary Filipinos, who took to the streets to protest decades of unchecked corruption.
“This is the last straw for the Filipino people,” said protester Tiffany Faith Brillante, president of Youth Anger Against Corruption in the Philippines.
“Corruption today is no longer simply a symptom of weak governance,” she says. “It’s deeply rooted in how power is held in government, how budgets are allocated, and how accountability is consistently avoided.”
Marcos Jr. claims he had no knowledge of the fraud taking place. He has positioned himself as an anti-corruption campaigner, shaming those responsible for corruption and attacking protesters.
But more senior officials have been implicated in the scandal, leading some to blame the president.
One of those figures is Zaldi Company, a former Marcos Jr. ally and former House Appropriations Chairman who became one of the central figures accused in the scandal. He fled the country and is currently on the run.
While in hiding, he posted a series of explosive videos on his social media accounts accusing Marcos Jr. and his family of profiting from corruption, charges the president denies.
Marcos’ family is also embroiled in the drama. Mr Marcos’ cousin, Ferdinand Martín Romualdez, resigned as speaker of the House of Representatives in September over the controversy, but has denied any involvement in the scandal.
Beyond the scale of the theft charges, what makes the scandal so devastating is that for many Filipinos it feels like history repeating itself, said Filipino political scientist Aries Algay, visiting senior fellow at the Singapore-based think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“Corruption and Marcos are almost synonymous in Philippine politics,” Algay said.
Marcos Jr.’s father, dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., ruled the Philippines with an iron fist from 1965 until his ouster in 1986, and for about half of that time the country was under martial law. His administration committed systematic human rights abuses, engaged in widespread corruption, and stole an estimated $10 billion from public coffers.
The flood control scandal reminded Filipinos of the dark days many experienced under Marcos Sr. One of the largest anti-corruption protests was held on September 21, the crucial day Marcos Sr. imposed martial law in 1972.
Marcos Jr.’s landslide victory in 2022 marked an unusual comeback for a notorious political family, but critics argued it was partially made possible by a disinformation campaign that whitewashed the history of the Marcos era.
And while authorities have warned that the looting of flood prevention programs may have begun under Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, the disparity between the lifestyles of elites and ordinary Filipinos has been a source of anger under the current president.
Algay said children of wealthy politicians and contractors were posting social media videos flaunting their lavish lifestyles, adding salt to the wounds of an angry public.
“While people are drowning in floods, politicians are in Paris on private jets,” he said.
The backlash against so-called “nepo kids” mirrors similar anti-corruption protests across Asia this year, including in Indonesia and Nepal, where protests led by Gen Z overthrew governments.
As with these protests, young people are the loudest voices calling for accountability in the Philippines.
“If our government continues to steal, oppress and ignore its people, we will inherit the fruits of our country’s corruption and systemic abuse,” Brillante said.
“We really want all the officials involved in corruption to be held accountable and jailed,” Brillante said.
“President Marcos cannot be spared. After all, he is the one who signs and approves the national budget every year.”
Public confidence in Marcos Jr. is wavering, but he is unlikely to meet the same fate as his father, who lost his seat in a popular revolt.
Marcos Jr. is halfway through his six-year term and will not be eligible for re-election in 2028 due to the single-term limit for Philippine presidents.
“I’ve never seen anything that amounts to a smoke bomb,” Iglesias said.
“But if (we) were to get conclusive evidence that, for example, he was directly benefiting financially from this corruption, I think that would push the administration over the edge. Right now, it’s teetering.”
According to a recent poll conducted by WR Numero, Marcos Jr.’s satisfaction rating was 21% in November, down 14% from August.
For someone who almost lost everything, Aguirre is upbeat and grateful. But he is not optimistic that this wave of public momentum will bring about meaningful change in the Philippines.
“With resilience, we can still move forward, but our quality of life remains the same.”
