The second administration of US President Donald Trump introduced a bold and unconventional strategy for the Middle East. The administration intends to recalibrate U.S. influence in a region historically scarred by conflict, prioritizing regional stability through economic power and military buildup by strengthening the business-oriented U.S. presence.
At the heart of President Trump’s ambitious goals is what Mark Savaya, the new US special envoy to Iraq, has described as his goal: “Make Iraq great again.” This approach moves from traditional open-ended war tactics to transactional, results-oriented diplomacy that seeks to restore Iraq’s sovereignty and economic vitality. This could be a “big gamble” for President Trump, who wants Iraq to function as a stable, sovereign regional hub rather than a battleground for foreign interests.
President Trump’s main plans and aspirations for Iraq include the dual mission of consolidating all military forces under the command of a legitimate nation and significantly reducing the influence of malign foreign powers, particularly Iran. The administration aims to open Iraq’s markets to international investment, improve the country’s infrastructure and ensure the independence of its energy sector. The plan is therefore to build on a genuine partnership that respects the unity of Iraq, while ensuring that Iraq no longer becomes a center of militia activity and external interference.
Militia and political deadlock
This assertive US strategy directly impacts Iraq’s highly conflicted and fragmented political environment, which is a patchwork of competing powers rather than a single nation. The crux of the problem lies not only in parliaments but also in the persistent shadow influence of armed groups and paramilitary groups, which often operate outside the state’s formal chain of command. These groups were the biggest winners in the November 2025 elections.
Ongoing government negotiations are shining a harsh light on these non-state actors.
Their power raises serious concerns for the future. If armed groups challenge state authority, how can Iraq enforce its laws and, importantly, attract the foreign investment needed for reconstruction? There is an urgent need to integrate a country’s armed forces under full state control, as highlighted by rising regional tensions and security threats.
Furthermore, the path to achieving true stability is severely hampered by deep-rooted political interests.
If Iraq is to achieve stability, it needs to urgently strengthen its institutional framework and clearly establish the separation of powers. However, many political parties seem more focused on maintaining control of lucrative national resources than implementing meaningful reforms that the country desperately needs. As a result, governance models struggle to stand firm amid the crosscurrents of competing loyalties and power grabs.
Washington’s play
To achieve this high-stakes goal, President Trump bypassed traditional diplomatic channels and appointed Mark Savaya as the US special envoy to Iraq on October 19th. Such appointments signal a shift toward “deal-making” diplomacy. Savaya’s mission is to guide the country through the complex political turmoil following Iraq’s parliamentary elections and towards a stable transition. His job is to bridge the gap between institutional support and big financial investments, serving as a direct representative of President Trump’s pro-business foreign policy.
Savaya is an Iraqi-born, Detroit-based businessman with no traditional diplomatic background. Although his experience is rooted in the private sector of the cannabis industry, he rose to political prominence as an active supporter of the Trump campaign in Michigan.
He played a key role in delicate negotiations to secure the release of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli-Russian scholar and Princeton University student who had been abducted by Iraqi militias for more than two years.
Mr. Savaya’s community and ethnic ties gave him critical access to Iraq’s power centers that traditional diplomats often lack.
Iran factor
Iraq’s position in the geopolitical tug-of-war has exacerbated domestic struggles and forced it to balance its vital relationships with two major powers: the United States and Iran. On the other hand, the US government’s objectives are clear. The United States wants to strengthen Iraq’s sovereignty while countering the dominance of powerful militias, often backed by Iran. The United States believes that allowing these armed groups too much influence could isolate the country and destroy its fragile economic stability.
But Iranian influence remains a formidable and enduring force. The Iranian government views Iraq not only as a neighbor but also as a key strategic ally in projecting its power throughout the region. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) actively works to maintain unity among Baghdad’s main Shiite factions. This move clearly demonstrates Iran’s deep and enduring interest in shaping Iraq’s political alignment and future course. Iraq therefore needs to strike this high-stakes balance in order to survive.
Savaya’s mission unfolds at a time when Iran’s regional “axis of resistance” is under unprecedented pressure. Already losing a key foothold in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024, and seeing Hezbollah’s political and military standing in Lebanon severely weakened by the conflict with Israel in 2025, Iran’s proxies now face the realistic prospect of losing control over Iraq as well.
Hezbollah is increasingly isolated in Lebanon, where the new government is intent on regaining the state’s monopoly on the use of force. For Tehran, this regional setback means maintaining influence in Baghdad is a last, desperate stand to remain a relevant regional power.
Other regional stakeholders
The success of Trump’s gamble also depends on the role of other regional players. Turkiye recently recalibrated his strategy to integrate Iraq into a provisional regional trade and security framework, effectively weakening Iran’s centrality. At the same time, Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have emerged as Baghdad’s key economic and security partners, offering an alternative to Iranian dependence.
But these regional actors also bring their own policies that may conflict with U.S. objectives, such as Turkiye’s focus on containing the Kurdish movement. If Mr. Sabaiya can successfully reconcile these diverse regional interests with President Trump’s plans, he could fundamentally rewrite Iraq’s turbulent future.
realist pragmatism
The “Make Iraq Great Again” strategy reflects a pragmatic reassertion of U.S. interests within an anarchic international system, prioritizing Washington’s security and economic power over idealistic goals.
By appointing Savaya, an unconventional business-oriented envoy, the Trump administration is adopting “transactional pragmatism,” using economic diplomacy and personal connections as strategic tools to pull Iraq out of Iran’s orbit. This approach views the U.S.-Iranian conflict as a zero-sum game of power politics, and the integration of the Iraqi military under centralized state control is fundamental to restoring a state-centric order and sidelining the non-state militias that currently feed Iran’s regional influence.
The new US special envoy to Iraq has declared that “there is no place for armed groups in a fully sovereign Iraq.” His call resonated with Iraqi officials and militia leaders. At least three militias close to Iran have now publicly agreed to disarm. But other groups have yet to do the same, rejecting calls in the first place.
However, this high-stakes attempt to change the regional balance of power faces a major “security dilemma.” Any aggressive move to reduce Iran’s influence could provoke a violent defensive response to protect Iran’s remaining strategic assets. This strategy seeks to capitalize on changes in the region by taking advantage of the weakened state of Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon, but it will have to contend with the “hybrid” forces of Iraqi militias and the parochial private interests of neighboring countries such as Turkiye and the Gulf states.
The success of this gamble depends on whether the United States can dismantle the shadow economy that facilitates foreign interference and establish a stable, autonomous state in Iraq that can weather the bitter geopolitical tug of war between the United States and Iran.
Bet on Iraq’s future
Ultimately, Sabaya’s appointment will serve as a decisive stress test for Iraq’s sovereignty and signal a high-stakes shift toward a transactional “America First” strategy aimed at “making Iraq great again.” Sabaya’s mission aims to leverage Tehran’s currently weakened regional proxies to transform Iraq into a stable, autonomous outpost by consolidating military command under the state and dismantling the shadow economy that fosters Iranian influence.
But the success of this “big gamble” will depend on Savaya’s ability to overcome deep political opposition and reconcile demands for a U.S. military presence and national unity. If this unconventional diplomatic push can bridge internal rifts, particularly between Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to the north, Iraq may finally secure a path to economic independence. Otherwise, the country risks becoming caught in the geopolitical crossfire between Washington and Tehran and remaining a perpetual battleground.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
