After a year of surprises and turbulence, the airline industry is hoping 2026 will bring something unusual: a period of relative calm.
Whether that wish will come true is another matter. Even in a quiet year, travelers can expect big changes, with long-promised premium upgrades finally rolling out at scale, airports becoming more welcoming places to be, and further consolidation reshaping the industry.
Add in changing geopolitics and rising costs of living that are putting pressure on travel budgets around the world, and the year ahead looks like it’s going to be anything but boring.
Here are the trends that will shape air travel in 2026.
Travel trading website Going said in its 2026 outlook that “premium experiences such as in-flight products, high-rise airport lounges and more direct routes are at their best in decades.”
From American Airlines to JetBlue Airways to Southwest Airlines to Swiss Air, long-promised premium products from lounges to seats will now be widely available, rather than limited to a few aircraft. These investments allow us to offer more luxury and more comfortable bargains at the front of the plane to travelers who are willing to pay more or redeem points.
U.S. Chief Financial Officer Devon May said in December that 2026 is the year of “implementation” on initiatives announced years ago. The airline introduced its long-awaited new flagship business and premium economy seats on the Boeing 787 in mid-year and on the Airbus A321XLR in December. But by this time next year, the new product will be installed on dozens of planes flying routes around the world, including America’s largest Boeing 777-300ER.
“We are excited to become a premium global airline,” May said. “We believe these demand trends will continue.”
The data supports that view. In its December outlook, the International Air Transport Association, the global airline trade group, cited “solid demand” for premium travel, particularly in Asia, Europe and North America. Since the pandemic, premium airline traffic growth has consistently outpaced economy travel, according to IATA data.
Even the Southwest, which has long advocated egalitarianism, is leaning toward this change. The company plans to start selling its first-ever premium product, seats with extra legroom, in January, and CEO Bob Jordan has hinted at more sales to come.
“We are making changes to meet the needs of our customers,” Jordan told CNBC in early December, adding that the company was “aggressively pursuing” a network of upscale airport lounges.
Air travel is in the midst of a golden age of airport lounges. Airlines are looking to outdo each other with ever more sophisticated spaces, like JetBlue’s new Blue House in New York. Credit card companies invest heavily in acquiring new customers. As a result, airport lounges are more complete and easier to access than ever before.
Airports are following suit. Outside, there’s a sterile concourse with a waiting area with the same seating as any run-of-the-mill chain restaurant. There’s local food and retail, an art-filled terminal, a variety of seating options, and in some cases, an outdoor patio.
Global architecture firm Gensler calls this vision “a lounge for everyone.” The concept recognizes that travelers are spending more time in secure areas of airports with improved amenities, design and, inevitably, more opportunities to spend their money.
“The airside of the future will be less of a shopping mall per se and more of an intertwining of spaces, giving passengers a little more ‘choose your own adventure,'” said Ty Osbaugh, airline industry leader and principal at Gensler.
Airports in Denver, Portland, Oregon, and San Francisco are already implementing many of these ideas. New terminals at New York’s JFK and Seattle-Tacoma, scheduled to open in 2026, are expected to follow suit.
Mergers are changing the airline landscape.
Air France KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Lufthansa Group in Europe, Korean Air in Asia and Alaska Airlines in the United States are all aiming to reach major merger milestones in 2026, a change that could have a big impact on travelers.
Paris-based Air France-KLM hopes to conclude a deal for majority control of SAS Scandinavian Airlines next year. If approved by European regulators, the move could enable closer integration, combining SAS Eurobonus and Air France-KLM Flying Blue loyalty programs, and linking SAS to a transatlantic partnership with Delta Air Lines. Air France-KLM acquired a minority stake in SAS for the first time in 2024.
In Frankfurt, Lufthansa Group is integrating with Italy’s ITA Airlines. The plan is to integrate ITA’s Volare loyalty program into Miles & More in the first quarter, and to add ITA to Lufthansa’s transatlantic alliance with Air Canada and United Airlines by the end of 2026. Lufthansa acquired a 41% stake in January this year and plans to take full control of ITA by 2027.
ITA has already announced new flights from Rome to United’s Houston hub starting in May, and CEO Jorg Everhart said United’s Newark hub is also on its list of future destinations.
In Asia, Korean Air aims to complete its integration with Asiana Airlines in 2026, including integrating loyalty programs, adjusting schedules, and withdrawing Asiana Airlines from the Star Alliance.
In the United States, the merger between Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines is nearing completion. One of the last major steps for passengers, Hawaiian Airlines’ transition to Alaska’s reservation system, is scheduled for April.
Other changes are still uncertain. The future of the bankrupt Spirit Airlines remains unresolved, with options ranging from complete closure to a possible merger with Frontier Airlines being considered. And in Latin America, Abra Group, owner of Avianca and GOL, is awaiting approval to acquire Chilean discounter Sky Airways.
Geopolitics remains a wild card
Decisions by world leaders will once again shape air travel in 2026. One notable change is the European Union’s new ETIAS travel authorization program, scheduled to be introduced in the fourth quarter. Travelers who do not require a visa must register in advance and pay a fee of 20 euros (approximately $23).
In the United States, the proposed changes could pose additional risks. The Trump administration has proposed requiring travelers from visa-exempt countries to provide five years of social media history and 10 years of email addresses when applying for ESTA authorization. Tom Fitzgerald, an airline analyst at TD Cowen, said in a December report that the proposal poses a “risk to inbound tourism, particularly during the World Cup” if implemented.
The new rules could further curb demand from foreign travelers to visit the United States. The number of international visitors to the United States fell to 85% of 2019 levels in 2025, according to data from the U.S. Travel Association. The group expects arrivals to recover in 2026, but will remain at about 89% of pre-pandemic levels.
Another concern, Fitzgerald said, is the possibility of a federal government shutdown when the current budget resolution expires on Jan. 30. Last fall’s government shutdown disrupted tens of thousands of travelers as flights were canceled to ease strain on air traffic control systems.
Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in December that he hoped 2026 would be a “slightly more stable environment politically.”
Internationally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the turmoil around the Middle East will continue to impact the airline map, making long-distance travel between Europe and Asia take longer and increasing fuel consumption and ticket prices.
According to Going’s report, “The industry is experiencing a complete K-shaped bifurcation, with the ‘K’ upper arm (luxury cabins, brand-loyal flyers, luxury-minded travelers) soaring while the lower arm (full of travelers who love cheap flights) is dragging down.”
According to recent data from Bank of America, spending among high-income households increased by 2.6% in November, while spending among lower-income households increased by just 0.6%, resulting in an overall decline of 2 percentage points. The bank cited low wage growth and widespread economic uncertainty in the latter group as reasons for the minimal increase.
This is good news for airlines and all of their premium investments, Raymond James aviation analyst Savanti Sis wrote in early December. Conversely, it suggests that growth at the economic end of the market will be minimal next year.
All these factors taken together mean that airlines will see a slowdown in their growth plans for 2026. Or, as Swissair CEO Jens Föhringer said in September, industry expansion will “normalize” next year after the hectic days when post-pandemic revenge travel was in full swing and airlines raced to catch up.
IATA expects passenger numbers to increase by 4.9% in 2026, a downward revision from this year’s forecast of 5.2% growth.
That doesn’t mean airlines won’t launch interesting new routes. Alaska Airlines will make its European debut with new routes from Seattle to Rome in April and Reykjavik to London in May.
And United just added remote vacation spots like Greenland and Mongolia to its map in 2025, and plans to add Santiago de Compostela in Spain and Split in Croatia this summer.
Elsewhere, European carrier Aegean Airlines is stretching its legs with new nonstop flights from Athens to New Delhi and Mumbai on an Airbus A321XLR. Iberia expands its XLR route with new direct flights from Madrid to Brazil, Canada and the United States. And for the first time ever, Air Canada will connect downtown Toronto’s Billy Bishop Airport with New York’s LaGuardia Airport.
