Football betting experts Jones Knows found the results of 9 out of 10 games to be correct this past weekend. He’s back to provide insight…
Manchester United v Newcastle, Boxing Day 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United host Newcastle on Boxing Day, live on Sky Sports – kick-off at 8pm
With the absence of key attacking players likely to impact Manchester United’s output, United will likely turn to Matheus Cunha, who provides creativity and a shooting threat.
Repeatable patterns in betting are something to respect, and Cunha’s shooting profile is exactly that. Since the start of last season, no player has taken more shots from outside the box than Cunha, 31, which suggests this is a plan rather than a change. What’s even more encouraging is that four of his shots on target outside the box have come in his last two games, highlighting his current confidence and freedom in his role.
Away from home, Eddie Howe’s side have conceded 1.21 shots from outside the box per game in their last 30 away league games, the third-highest of any Premier League side. This is exactly the type of defensive concession profile that encourages the type of effort that Cunha excels at.
At Evens with Sky, you can bet on at least one shot on target from outside the box by Cunha. What you’re looking for is not a goal, just a clean connection that troubles the goalkeeper from outside the area.
Score prediction: 1-2
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 12:30pm
Manchester City are once again becoming a punter’s ally, and their credibility remains intact. It was the seventh win on this spin for Josep Guardiola’s boys, who have the scent of Arsenal in their nostrils.
Guardiola also does things differently. Once known for his rotation, over the past eight game weeks he has started fewer players (12) in his starting XI than any other Premier League manager. This provides some great trends developing across the prop market, such as the foul-drawing ability of City’s Matthies Nunez, which we need to follow. He has drawn nine fouls from opponents in his last five starts, making him the player with the most fouls for City this season. He drew two more fouls again with 6/4 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 0-2
Taking away the opponent’s shot line against Arsenal at the Emirates is not something you would normally consider as a betting theory. But Brighton, under coach Fabian Hürzeler, are no ordinary side when it comes to visiting elite teams, and the numbers prove it.
A closer look at Brighton’s data against the Premier League’s top-flight teams makes the situation very interesting for those looking to take a shot when the price is right.
Brighton have played 11 games under the manager against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City, averaging 15.8 shots per game on the back of a very healthy expected goals per game of 1.78. That’s ridiculous output. This created an opportunity for a title contender for a team that had never even sniffed a chance at a title challenge.
The market lags behind this curve. You can jump on Brighton and shoot over 10 at even on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
This is a game where it’s hard to escape from the numbers. Let’s hope they don’t lie.
Brentford’s past 11 league games at G Tech have seen them score a massive 3.9 goals per game, but two things are immediately clear: they play football on the front foot, and they are far from a perfect attacking force at the back.
Now add Bournemouth into the equation and the noise only gets louder. In their away games, they average an astonishing 4.5 goals per game, which is elite-level volatility. Andoni Iraola is doing his best to press aggressively away, creating chances at one end and exposing himself to fear at the other.
If both teams score more than 2.5 goals combined, you will have a 4/5 shot to attack on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-2
This is the part of the season where experiences quietly shift the balance. Matches are intense and fast-paced, preparation time is limited, and matches are often more about game management than tactical perfection.
This is where David Moyes stands out.
In the 58 Premier League matches played between December 23 and January 8, his team had a 45 per cent win rate, an impressive performance during one of the toughest periods on the calendar. It refers to a manager who understands how to simplify the game when the legs get tired and the focus shifts from style to substance.
In a game that is likely to be decided by a close margin, experience at the back, especially on the touchline, feels like a smart angle for Evens to take away an away win.
Score prediction: 0-1 | Jones knows Best bet: Everton to win (even on Sky Bet)
When you play at Anfield, it’s inevitable that you’ll spend a lot of time without the ball. And when a team spends a large portion of the game chasing shadows, the foul count usually starts to increase.
That’s the angle that makes the Wolves interesting in a very difficult betting heat. They have averaged 16.8 fouls per 90 minutes since Rob Edwards took over, the most of any Premier League team. Teams that are expected to suffer tend to commit more fouls out of frustration rather than malice. And there’s plenty of that in Wolves camp.
It’s worth seeing that Wolves committed the most fouls in each half at 13/8 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 3-0
Since Nuno Espirito Santo took over West Ham, their games have taken on a very distinct character. An average of 3 goals per game is scored, but a more notable metric is expected goals, which is even higher at 3.3 goals per game.
This shows that these matches are not inflated by unusual finishes or red cards, but rather that chances are purely flowing at both ends.
Nuno’s West Ham are much more direct and very transition-heavy. They attack quickly, lean forward, and are willing to take risks. This is what the home fans demand in this important and potentially winnable home game. The Hammers aren’t reliable enough to walk away completely at 8/5 on Sky Bet, but over 2.5 goals and a combo of both teams at evens is the price of potential.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS Best Bet: 2.5 Goals or More & BTTS (Even at Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 and win £1 million!
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Live!
Aston Villa’s basic numbers suggest a bit of upheaval ahead. But context is important and this trip to Chelsea is one spot that Villa will be very hard to ignore, despite an offer on Sky Bet to make it 11 wins in a row and a data warning of 3/1.
Chelsea still struggle to control games for long periods of time, especially against teams looking to attack space quickly. Morgan Rogers comes to the party. Villa’s key players don’t need volume, they need moments – and Chelsea provide plenty of that.
A Villa win with Rodgers on the scoresheet doesn’t ask for much. He has been successful in three of his past seven starts and at 8/1 on Sky Bet he will be rated as a value play.
Score prediction: 1-2
Sunderland vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Sunderland vs Leeds United live!
There are certain reasons that cannot be ignored. The Stadium of Light has become a place where structure, energy and belief do the heavy lifting, and those qualities tend to serve them very well throughout the season. They are currently unbeaten in 8 home games in the Premier League, with 5 wins and 3 draws, and their consistency speaks volumes about the kind of team they are.
There is a temptation to downgrade Sunderland due to the absence of key players in the AFCON. But this is a team built on collective understanding and tactical clarity. Even if you remove some parts, it still retains its structure, as its great performance at Brighton showed.
Leeds, on the other hand, are having a tough time away from home. Losing six of eight away games highlights a team that has yet to find a way to control games outside of its familiar surroundings.
The market has downplayed the influence of the Stadium of Light and as a result we were able to back Sunderland with a 10/11 draw no bet on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Jones knows Best bet: No bet on Sunderland (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace v Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur live!
Crystal Palace’s defense is creaking. They have conceded a total of 10 goals in their last four games in all competitions. Prior to that, he had only scored a total of eight goals in his previous 12 games. The team has exceeded its limits and is suffering as a result.
Spurs have had eight days off since their last game, the longest gap between games this season. Thomas Frank is a process-oriented, hands-on coach who needs training time to turn his ideas into reality, something he didn’t have this season. And although Frank’s side are one of the most ineffective teams in the Premier League this season in attack, there is enough quality up front to enjoy Palace’s defensive process, which offers more gifts than usual. It was a bit of a luxury to win the away game on November 5th with Sky Bet.
