WASHINGTON, DC – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been warning of Iran’s grave threat to Israel and the world for more than 30 years.
US President Donald Trump heeded these warnings in June and bombed Tehran’s nuclear facility. But Prime Minister Netanyahu does not seem satisfied yet and plans to push for further military action against Iran when he returns to the United States to visit President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Sunday.
Recommended stories
list of 3 itemsend of list
This time the focus will be on Iran’s missile program.
Israeli officials and their U.S. allies are again beating the drums of war against Iran, insisting that Tehran’s missiles must be addressed urgently.
But analysts said a new conflict with Iran would be completely contrary to President Trump’s stated foreign policy priorities.
Sheena Toosi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank, said Trump is pushing for deeper economic cooperation and diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab countries, while Netanyahu seeks military control over the region.
“This desire for permanent U.S. involvement and a permanent war with Iran to truly defeat the Iranian state reflects Israel’s aim of unwavering control, unwavering hegemony, and expansionism,” Tusi said.
“And I think that’s at the root of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s goals and the direction he wants the U.S. to take. But that’s going to be overshadowed by U.S. interests moving in a different direction and wanting more stability in the region that doesn’t require direct U.S. military involvement.”
Since brokering a cease-fire in Gaza that Israel violates almost daily, President Trump, who describes himself as a peacemaker, continues to claim he has brought peace to the Middle East for the first time in 3,000 years.
And the administration’s recently released National Security Strategy says the region is “emerging as a place of partnership, friendship and investment” that is no longer a priority for the United States.
Moving the goalposts
As the United States pledges to reduce its military and strategic influence in the Middle East, Israel appears to be lobbying for a war that could draw the United States into the conflict.
For the past several decades, Israel has held up Iran’s nuclear program as the greatest threat to its security and the world.
However, President Trump has maintained that the plan was wiped out after the United States attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities in June.
Regardless of the accuracy of Trump’s assessment, analysts said his declaration prompted Israel to seek a new boogeyman to avoid publicly contradicting the US president.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a U.S. think tank that promotes diplomacy, said Israel has switched its focus to missiles to maintain pressure on Tehran since President Trump declared the nuclear issue resolved “rightly or wrongly.”
“Prime Minister Netanyahu is urging the US to engage in another war with Israel, this time focusing on missiles. One of the reasons for this is that President Trump does not accept the idea of addressing the nuclear issue. Since he says he has solved the nuclear issue, he has ‘killed’ the nuclear program,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.
“Israelis will constantly move the goalposts to ensure the conflict with Iran becomes a never-ending and eternal war.”
Iran has always maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful, unlike Israel, which is widely believed to have an undeclared nuclear arsenal.
Tehran has also never fired missiles at Israel indiscriminately.
During the June war, Iran fired hundreds of missiles at Israel, dozens of which breached the country’s layered air defenses, but it was Israel that started the war without any apparent provocation.
Israel supporters focus on missiles
Still, Israel and its allies are sounding the alarm about Iran’s missile program, warning that Iran is restoring and increasing production capacity.
“While Israel’s Operation Rising Lion succeeded in destroying much of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, Israel estimates that approximately 1,500 of the 3,000 missiles Iran previously possessed remain,” the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) said in an email to supporters this month.
“The ballistic missile threat from Iran will be on the agenda when Prime Minister Netanyahu visits Florida on Sunday and meets with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Monday.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, an Iran hawk close to President Trump, visited Israel this month and reiterated key points about the dangers of Iran’s long-range missiles, warning that Iran was building them in “very large quantities.”
“We cannot allow Iran to build ballistic missiles because it could overwhelm Iron Dome,” he told The Jerusalem Post, referring to Israel’s air defense system. “That’s a serious threat.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also emphasized Iran’s missile capabilities and signaled that the Netanyahu government will not tolerate any threats in the region.
“Defence officials are closely monitoring developments, but of course we cannot elaborate further,” Katz was quoted as saying by the Times of Israel.
“But in principle there is no debate. What happened before October 7 will not happen again,” he was quoted as saying in reference to a Hamas-led attack on Israel in 2023. “We will not tolerate threats of annihilation against the State of Israel.”
But critics argued that Israel was pursuing supremacy in the region, not just erasing an existential threat.
Its ultimate goal is believed to be to either change the Iranian government or carry out periodic attacks to keep Iran weakened and without a meaningful military force.
“The Israelis will come back every six months with a new plan to bomb Iran, but after that it won’t end until President Trump decides to end it,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.
“So if he acquiesces again like he did in June, he will confront Israel again next June with another war plan, and he will confront Israel again next December and next June. It will not stop until he stops it.”
Trump’s support base
Diplomatic hawks who advocate change in Iran’s government once dominated President Trump’s Republican Party.
But thanks in part to Trump himself, most of the base now firmly opposes military intervention and supports focusing on American issues.
The America First movement, represented by influential right-wing media figures like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, implored President Trump in June not to attack Iran.
Even the late Charlie Kirk, a close Trump ally and staunch supporter of Israel, voiced opposition to U.S. involvement in the war.
Carlson has already condemned Israel’s renewed push for war.
“It’s been less than six months since President Trump risked war with Iran on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s behalf, and instead of thanking him, the prime minister has already started demanding more,” he wrote in his newsletter this month. “This is the definition of a parasitic relationship.”
But the Republican caucus in Congress remains overwhelmingly aligned with Israel, and Trump’s top foreign policy aide, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is an Iran hawk.
Pro-Israel mega-donors who helped finance the Trump campaign, such as Miriam Adelson, are also likely to push back against America First voices in the Trump movement.
“These are very important factors, but I think it’s important to understand that it’s a two-way street,” Parsi said of domestic considerations about war with Iran.
“Voters don’t want this. Donors, at least the majority, want this. And when the midterm elections come (in November 2026), those are going to be two pressures in opposite directions from two groups, both of which President Trump believes is necessary.”
Toosi said political speculation toward war with Iran makes more sense now than it did in June, as the 2026 elections that will determine who controls Congress approach.
“Trump’s popularity is very low right now because of the affordability crisis and conservative rifts over foreign policy. So I think all of these factors are limiting Trump’s ability to engage in a major war,” he said.
risk of escalation
Trump was able to declare victory after the U.S. military attack in June.
He helped Israel damage Iran’s nuclear program and kept its bases intact without drawing the United States into another protracted conflict.
An Iranian missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar resulted in no American casualties, but President Trump announced a cease-fire to end the war 12 days later.
But analysts warned that the second round of bombardment against Iran may not end so easily.
Parsi said Iran is unlikely to repeat the restraint it showed in June because its unwillingness to escalate is perceived by the West as a weakness.
“Iran’s response will be tougher and faster, because Iranians understand that unless they counterattack strongly and dispel the perception that Iran is a country that they can bomb every six months, unless they do that, Iran will become a country that Israel bombs every six months.”
Parsi warned that Israel could begin attacking Iran unilaterally, counting on support from US air defenses in the region, and gradually drawing the US into the conflict.
He said President Trump must prevent Israel from launching an attack from the beginning.
“If they don’t want Israel to start that war, you’ll say to Israel, ‘Don’t start that war and we’ll leave completely.’ That would be the America First position to take,” he said.
Parsi said Washington’s “historic reasons for focusing on the Middle East will recede” as the region moves toward more cooperation and fewer conflicts, citing President Trump’s National Security Strategy (NSS).
“Then stand back,” said the Parsi.
“So many administrations, both inside and outside the NSS, have made statements along these lines one after the other. So do it.”
