Recent attacks by the United States on areas targeted by the Islamic State (ISIS) in northwestern Nigeria are being presented in Washington as a decisive counter-terrorism response. For supporters of President Donald Trump’s administration, the unprecedented operation signaled the country’s renewed determination to fight terrorism. It also fulfills President Trump’s promise to take action against what he calls a “genocide of Christians” in Nigeria.
However, beneath the spectacle of military action lies a grim reality. This type of bombing campaign is unlikely to improve Nigeria’s security or help stabilize the conflict-stricken country. On the contrary, strikes risk misrepresenting the conflict and distracting from the deeper structural crises driving the violence.
The first problem with the strike is its lack of strategic logic. The first attack was launched in Sokoto, northwestern Nigeria, which has experienced severe turmoil over the past decade. However, this violence was not primarily caused by an ideological insurgency associated with ISIL, and no ISIL-affiliated groups are known to be active in the region. Rather, security concerns in the region are rooted in banditry, the collapse of rural economies, and competition for land. The armed groups here are fragmented and primarily motivated by profit.
The Christmas strikes appear to have focused on a relatively new ideological armed group called Laklawa, whose profile and links to ISIL have not yet been fully established.
The ideological armed groups with the strongest presence in northern Nigeria are Boko Haram and the ISIL affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP). The centers of activity for these groups remain hundreds of kilometers from Sokoto in northeastern Nigeria in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states, which have a long history of insurgency. This begs the question: why attack the northwest first? The logic is unclear.
Equally concerning is the uncertainty surrounding casualties. As of now, there is no one in authority. Some social media accounts claimed there were no casualties, suggesting the bomb fell on an empty target. Security analyst Brant Phillip posted on his social media platform X: “Civilian sources familiar with US operations against Islamic State in Nigeria say several attacks have been launched, but most of the individuals and groups targeted have been missed, and the actual damage done remains largely unknown.”
Nigerian news platform Arise TV reported in X that local residents confirmed the incident caused widespread panic. The newspaper’s correspondent said at least one attack took place in an area previously unaffected by violence. They also noted that the full impact of the attack was not yet known, including whether there were any civilian casualties.
Other social media accounts have spread images claiming civilian casualties, but these claims remain unconfirmed. In situations where information warfare is conducted alongside armed conflict, speculation often travels faster than facts. The lack of transparent data on casualties from the U.S. government risks deepening mistrust among communities already wary of foreign military involvement.
Symbolism is also important. Although the attack occurred on Christmas Day, the event has emotional and political meaning. For many Muslims in northern Nigeria, the timing risks being interpreted as an act of support for a broader narrative of a Western “crusade” against Muslim communities.
Even more sensitive is Sokoto, the location of the strike. Historically, it was the spiritual seat of the 19th century Sokoto Caliphate and a center of Islamic authority and expansion, respected by Nigeria’s Muslims. Bombing such symbolic centers risks stirring up anti-American sentiment, deepening religious suspicion, and providing fertile ground for hardline propagandists to take advantage of. Far from weakening ISIL’s influence, this attack could inadvertently increase recruitment and amplify voices of dissatisfaction.
If airstrikes cannot solve Nigeria’s security crisis, what can?
The answer does not lie in foreign military intervention. Conflict in Nigeria is a symptom of serious governance failures, including weak security, corruption, and the absence of a state in rural areas. In the bandit-infested northwest, residents often negotiate with armed groups not because they sympathize with them, but because the state rarely provides security or basic services. In the northeast, where Boko Haram has emerged, years of government neglect, heavy-handed security strategies, and economic exclusion have created fertile ground for insurgency.
Therefore, the most sustainable security response must be layered. It requires investment in community-based policing, dialogue and de-radicalization pathways. It demands the existence of a state that protects rather than punishes. That means prioritizing intelligence gathering, strengthening local government, and restoring trust in the public and government institutions.
U.S. airstrikes may make headlines and satisfy a domestic audience, but on the ground in Nigeria they risk only sending a hardline message and deepening resentment.
Nigerians do not need the United States to bombard their security and stability. They need local reform. Community-based, long-term support to rebuild trust, restore livelihoods and strengthen state institutions. Anything less is a distraction.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
