What is Russia’s reaction to President Trump’s Greenland bid?

When US President Donald Trump said the US needed to occupy Greenland as a matter of national security and that Chinese and Russian ships were “all over the place” in the Arctic region, the remarks drew immediate condemnation from Beijing.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian hit back on Monday, saying the United States was “using the so-called ‘China threat’ as an excuse to pursue its own selfish interests.”

Russia, on the other hand, has remained particularly silent about President Trump’s ambitions to take over Greenland and his threats to use military force to seize the Arctic island if necessary.

The silence emanating from the Kremlin regarding the Greenland issue may be partially explained by the fact that January 7 is the Russian Orthodox Christmas celebration and a holiday period for Russians. Russian leaders have not yet commented on the detention over the weekend of Nicolas Maduro, the leader of Russia’s ally Venezuela.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement Wednesday criticizing the United States’ “aggressive actions” in Venezuela and the seizure of a new Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean. However, he has remained silent regarding Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory.

With Russia’s laser-like focus in recent years on its (and rival’s) growing geopolitical interests in the Arctic, it probably has far more reason than China to be vocal about the possibility of a US “takeover” of a large Arctic presence like Greenland.

There are good reasons for this. Russia is the largest Arctic state to date, occupying 53% of the Arctic coastline, and has long-standing geopolitical, strategic, and socio-economic interests in the region.

The Arctic is a strategic driver of jobs, investment and growth for Russia’s economy, based on oil, gas and mineral extraction industries, linked to fishing, infrastructure and transport logistics, especially the Northern Sea Route, Russia’s main northern sea route between Europe and Asia.

In addition, Russia maintains a maritime nuclear deterrent in the Arctic, has numerous military bases and airfields in the Arctic, and a fleet of specialized icebreakers to facilitate trade, transportation, and resource extraction within its territory.

Russia’s Arctic interests could well be affected by the United States’ obsession with Greenland, especially any move to seize the island by force. But analysts told CNBC that the Russian government is interested in seeing its ultimate goal, the destruction of NATO, come to fruition.

“Russia’s stake in Greenland is small,” Jamie Shea, NATO’s former deputy secretary-general for emerging security issues, told CNBC on Wednesday.

“The US[increasing its presence in Greenland]would give it an even bigger presence in the North Atlantic, but with Canada, Denmark, Norway and the UK all increasing their military presence and capabilities in the region, and Sweden and Finland joining NATO, NATO already limits what Russia can do in the northern highlands, so strategically it won’t change much for Russia,” added Shea, an international defense and security expert at the Chatham House think tank.

Putin “would be happy to see further fragmentation and incoherence in NATO and a transatlantic crisis that could lead to the US cutting aid to Ukraine and withdrawing US troops from Europe,” the analyst said.

If the United States becomes “bound in the Western Hemisphere,” it will ultimately give Russia room to increase its influence in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe. So, in the end, it will be a huge victory for President Putin that will come at no cost.”

President Trump’s re-bid for Greenland and his threat to use military force if necessary shocked NATO and its European members this week.

Both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly told President Trump that the island is not for sale and that any military action to seize it would mean the end of the NATO alliance.

European leaders have also spoken out against Mr. Trump, saying, “Denmark and Greenland, and they alone, should decide on issues concerning Denmark and Greenland.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with Danish officials next week.

The apparent alarm among European leaders and the growing possibility of disbanding NATO is “an absolute gift to President Putin,” RUSI senior fellow Edward R. Arnold told CNBC.

“President Putin always knew, and so did his Soviet leaders before him, that Russia could not defeat NATO militarily. Russia is too powerful and needs to defeat NATO politically. That is basically trying to distance the United States from European interests to the point where it makes Article 5 hollow and exposes it.”

If Greenland’s annexation became a more realistic prospect, “NATO would effectively undermine itself politically,” Arnold added.