Last May, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro at the Grand Kremlin Palace, just before huge celebrations in Moscow commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
It was a symbolic moment that marked Putin’s major alliances in the Western Hemisphere. Flanked by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, President Putin extended a warm welcome to his Venezuelan counterpart, saying that relations between Moscow and Caracas were developing “largely thanks to President Maduro’s personal attention.”
After limited-format talks and an official breakfast, the two presidents signed an agreement on strategic partnership and cooperation. But the capture of Mr. Maduro in a military operation ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump exposed the limits of that partnership while also pointing the way to potential strategic opportunities for Kremlin leaders in dealing with Washington’s new age of gunboat diplomacy.
Of course, Russian diplomats’ condemnation of the US raid to capture Maduro was swift and unambiguous. In a phone call over the weekend with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, Lavrov “expressed his strong solidarity with the Venezuelan people in the face of armed aggression,” according to a document provided by Russia’s Foreign Ministry.
At a UN Security Council meeting on Monday, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzhya accused the US government of “creating new momentum for neo-colonialism and imperialism”.
But Putin’s voice, the only truly important figure in Russian politics, was particularly absent in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. regime change operation. Unlike Chinese President Xi Jinping, who condemned “unilateral bullying” by the US government, President Putin did not immediately issue a clear public statement about the attack.
Similarly, it has not yet commented on the U.S. military’s boarding and seizure of a Russian-flagged vessel on Wednesday. Many observers are now wondering how the Russian government will respond to Washington’s new military adventurism.
At first glance, Maduro’s ouster appears to be the latest in a series of geopolitical setbacks for Putin. In December 2024, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a longtime client of Moscow, fled to Russia after his regime collapsed. Last June, the United States launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, entering into a direct conflict with the country, which also entered into a strategic partnership with Russia earlier this year.
Russian officials were quick to clarify that the strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran does not obligate Russia to intervene militarily if Iran is attacked. And although the strategic partnership forged between Maduro and Putin was touted by the Russian government as an expression of support for the “brotherly Venezuelan people” to protect them from external threats, the invasion by US special operations forces did not provoke a strong reaction on the Russian side.
The US military raid to seize President Maduro was also a bit of embarrassing publicity for Russia’s military-industrial complex. Under Maduro’s predecessor, the late President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s conventional military began to regroup with Russian-made equipment, including the S-300, Buk, and 44 Pechora air defense systems. Amid threats of military action from the Trump administration, Maduro also boasted that his military had deployed 5,000 Russian-made short-range anti-aircraft missiles at “key air defense sites.”
“Russian air defense systems didn’t seem to work very well, huh?” mocked U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in a speech at the Naval Shipyard in Newport News, Virginia, on Monday.
However, at a strategic level, there may be a glimmer of hope for Putin. President Trump’s insistence on distinct areas of interest in Latin America, the so-called “Donroe Doctrine,” could give Kremlin leaders a bit of rhetoric in justifying their imperialist quest to dismantle independent Ukraine. And the Trump administration’s confident signals that control of Greenland is next on its to-do list nicely complements the Kremlin’s view.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has long asserted its right to intervene in so-called “near foreign countries,” or independent states that emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union. And in his remarks after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin made it very clear that he views the restoration of the empire as his greatest mission.
Those remarks echo comments White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller made to CNN’s Jake Tapper after the Venezuela attack, saying, “We live in a world, a real world, ruled by force, ruled by force, ruled by force.”
And President Trump’s message that he is prepared to use force to occupy Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a NATO ally, should also be welcome news for the Kremlin. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government has sought to exploit rifts within the Atlantic alliance, particularly as the UK and European powers seek to rally a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine amid wavering support from the United States.
Putin appeared with uniformed military personnel and their families at a church service celebrating Russian Orthodox Christmas, which is celebrated on January 7 on the Julian calendar, publicly demonstrating his determination to continue the war with Ukraine despite ongoing peace efforts.
“Today we celebrate the wonderful and bright feast of the Nativity of Christ, and we often call the Lord Savior, because He came to earth to save all peoples,” Putin said. “Therefore, the soldiers, Russian soldiers, are always fulfilling this very mission, as if commanded by the Lord: to protect the Motherland, to save the Fatherland and the people. And Russia has always treated its soldiers in this way: as people carrying out this sacred mission, as if commanded by the Lord.”
The sight of Maduro being transferred to a New York court could draw unwanted attention to Putin’s failure to successfully impose regime change in neighboring Ukraine. But Putin seems to be hinting that he may still do the right thing in the global Game of Thrones.
