US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened that the US government could intervene militarily in Iran if there is a violent crackdown on demonstrators as protests continue.
It was revealed on Wednesday that some personnel had been advised to leave the US military’s al-Udeid air base in Qatar by Wednesday evening, raising concerns about a possible US attack and Iranian retaliation.
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Protests in Iran began in late December 2025, citing the deteriorating economic situation in Iran. But since then, they have escalated into a broader challenge to the country’s clerical leadership, which has been in power since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
On Tuesday, President Trump took to social media to tell protesters in Iran that aid was “on the way”, fueling speculation that U.S. intervention in the country was imminent.
But if Washington were to intervene in Iran, what are its options and how feasible are they?
What did Trump say?
In a post on the Truth social platform on Tuesday, President Trump wrote, “Iranian patriots, keep protesting and take over your institutions!!! Leave the names of the murderers and abusers intact. They will pay dearly. I have canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killings of protesters stop. Help is on the way. MIGA!!! President Donald J. Trump.”
“MIGA” means “Make Iran Great Again,” a play on President Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again.”
The US president did not elaborate on what form this “assistance” would take.
But on January 2, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their habit, the United States will come to their aid.” He added: “We are locked, loaded and ready to go.”
What did the Trump administration say?
On Monday, White House press secretary Caroline Levitt told Fox News that President Trump’s first option toward Iran remains diplomacy, but “we will not fear lethal force and force from the U.S. military if we deem it necessary.”
“Air strikes will be one of many, many options on the commander-in-chief’s table,” Levitt said. As President of the United States, Mr. Trump is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces.
“He has made it clear that he never wants to see people killed on the streets of Tehran, and unfortunately that is what we are witnessing now.”
“No one knows that better than Iran,” Levitt said, referring to President Trump’s use of military force in Iran.
In June 2025, during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, following more than a week of Israeli attacks on military and nuclear facilities in Tehran. The 12-day war between Iran and Israel lasted from June 13th to June 24th.
However, the current situation is not the same as the situation last June. Since then, U.S. military presence in the Middle East has declined.
Why has the US military presence decreased?
The USS Gerald Ford, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and the world’s largest warship, left Norfolk, Virginia, on June 24 and was deployed to the Mediterranean near the Middle East, allowing Washington to demonstrate its military presence in the region during the 12-day war.
However, the USS Gerald Ford is currently deployed to the Caribbean as part of Operation Southern Spear (SOUTHCOM), which has been under construction off the coast of Latin America since November.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said an operation had begun targeting suspected “narco-terrorists” in Latin America. The United States has carried out at least 30 attacks on Venezuelan fishing vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, which the United States claims were loaded with drugs, but no evidence has been provided.
On January 3, the US military abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The Trump administration has called the president a narco-terrorist. He is currently facing charges related to weapons and drug trafficking in New York.
An October 2025 analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) before its deployment to Latin America estimated that it would take the USS Gerald Ford about 10 days to sail between the Caribbean and the Mediterranean Sea. This is when traveling at an average speed of 20 knots, or 37km/h (23mph).
Based on CSIS figures, it would take another week for Ford to travel from the Mediterranean to the Gulf and the Iranian coast.
In addition to the Ford, the United States also moved related strike group ships from the Mediterranean Sea, primarily to the Caribbean Sea. As a result, US offensive power in the Middle East is now significantly smaller than it was in June.
What kind of military presence does the United States have in the Middle East?
Despite the relocation of warships, the United States still operates an extensive network of permanent and temporary military locations in at least 19 locations in the Middle East. This has not changed since June.
Eight of these have permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Some personnel have been told to leave the US military’s al-Udeid air base in Qatar by Wednesday, Reuters reported, citing unnamed diplomats, but the reason was unclear. Al Udeid is the largest US military base in the Middle East, with 10,000 soldiers stationed there. During the 12-day war, Iran launched an attack on the al-Udeid base.
“This is a change in attitude, not an ordered evacuation,” one diplomat told Reuters, adding that he did not know the specific reasons for the move.
This came after US B‑2 stealth bombers dropped 14 “bunker buster” bombs on at least two Iranian nuclear facilities. The United States still has the military capability to do this.
Could the US target Iranian leadership?
“President Trump supports short, sharp operations with minimal risk to U.S. forces,” Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian politics at Australia’s Deakin University, told Al Jazeera.
He cited Maduro’s recent abduction from Venezuela and the 2020 U.S. assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) elite Quds Force, in a drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” President Trump wrote in June, referring to Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei in a post on Truth Social.
“He’s an easy target, but he’s safe there. We’re not going to take him out (kill him!), at least for now. But we don’t want missiles to be fired at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”
Akbarzadeh said that was a possibility, as Trump has already indicated he might remove Iran’s supreme leader, but that Trump “needs to prepare for the inevitable backlash.”
“If the Islamic regime’s beheading plan removes the supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guards are most likely to step in and take the lead in the vacuum. That would not be a good outcome for the United States. I think the Trump administration has that possibility in mind,” Akbarzadeh said. But he added that clerical governments are unpopular, so if the supreme leader is targeted, the flow of public support is unlikely to go towards the leadership.
Akbarzadeh said that if the Revolutionary Guards were to take over, Iran would likely transition from a hybrid theocratic republic to an open military regime. It is likely to be even more opposed to Washington than the current clerical leadership. There is also a growing possibility that the Revolutionary Guards will retaliate against the US attack.
Experts say the United States is unlikely to carry out an operation in Iran similar to the one in Venezuela that led to Maduro’s abduction.
“The logistics are too difficult for something like the operation in Venezuela to take place in Iran. The distances that U.S. helicopters would have to fly are even longer, and Iranian security is already on high alert in case President Trump attempts something like that,” Akbarzadeh said.
“Iran may be hoping that the U.S. will use targeted strikes to remove its supreme leader and many key leaders,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University. “The U.S. will then try to force the Islamic Republic’s remaining forces on nuclear and missile issues to do what its leaders refuse to do.”
“Their view of Venezuela is that the United States… wants to change the situation in Iran, but it’s not going to invade Iran with troops, and the United States is not necessarily looking for regime change and state-building like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Is a ground invasion possible?
Experts say the United States is unlikely to send troops to Iran.
“Trump is not a nation builder. He doesn’t believe in long-term commitment and building democracy. Remember, he gave up on Afghanistan. So he’s not going to go all out on the ground in Iran. It’s simply too expensive,” Akbarzadeh said.
Under the Trump administration, the United States moved decisively to end the long war in Afghanistan that began in 2001.
In 2020, during the Trump administration’s first term, U.S. officials and Taliban representatives signed the Doha Agreement to end the war after months of negotiations in Qatar. The actual troop withdrawal took place in 2021 under President Joe Biden.
