Millions of Ugandans are set to vote Thursday in a key presidential rematch between the former pop star and the longtime authoritarian leader, who seeks to extend his nearly 40-year rule.
In the previous matchup in the 2021 polls, President Yoweri Museveni, now 81, won a landslide victory. Singer-turned-politician Bobi Wine came in a distant second place.
Mr Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, contested the results, claiming they were rigged. The 44-year-old former pop singer, who claims to have been beaten, tasered and tear-gassed during protests against Museveni, now rarely appears in public without wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet.
Who are the main candidates?
Museveni grabbed the top spot in 1986 when Wine was only three years old. He secured the presidency after an armed uprising and is currently seeking a seventh consecutive term in office. Observers and analysts predict he has a very good chance of achieving that.
He campaigned on the motto of “protecting interests,” portraying a legacy of peace and stability during his 40 years in power, and vowing to lift Uganda, one of the world’s poorest countries, to “upper-middle income status” through investment in manufacturing and agriculture.
Museveni’s critics say he has maintained power by sidelining his opponents.
Wine has built his identity on uncompromising opposition to what he describes as Museveni’s “dictatorship.” He has pledged to build a “new Uganda”, restoring political freedoms, eradicating corruption and creating jobs. His campaign mobilized millions of disillusioned Ugandan youth.
“It’s important to challenge authoritarian leaders again and again until we finally achieve freedom,” Wine told CNN. “Because not challenging him means giving up.”
“I know that all (the state institutions), including the military and the police, are against us. But it is clear that Ugandans are firmly behind the positive change that I am leading.”
Although the election is largely seen as a showdown between Museveni and Wine, there are six other candidates, including prominent lawyer Nandala Mafabi.
Mr Mafabi, 59, drew large audiences in parts of Uganda, promising to carefully manage the country’s resources and campaigning on the slogan “Rebuild the economy, put money in our pockets”.
Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement party has made changes to Uganda’s laws to help him maintain power, including removing age limits and term limits for the presidency. After securing a fifth term in 2016, he told the BBC: “We don’t believe in term limits.” He has faced repeated criticism for suppressing opposition party rallies and suppressing anti-government demonstrations.
On Tuesday, just two days before the vote, Ugandan authorities implemented a nationwide internet blackout and restrictions on mobile services, similar to measures taken during previous elections.
In the run-up to the 2021 elections, violent clashes have left dozens dead. The Council of Ministers of the European Union highlighted broader problems with the electoral process at the time, pointing to media repression, including internet blackouts, harassment of opposition leaders and attacks on observer offices.
In the run-up to Thursday’s vote, scenes of chaos have resurfaced, with CNN witnessing security forces violently attacking Wine and his supporters at a rally. Mr Wine characterized the election as a “war”, citing the jailing of hundreds of mainly young supporters.
Ugandan police deny any intention to target Wine or his supporters. But last week, authorities imposed restrictions on live coverage of the riots and “illegal processions.” Museveni encouraged security forces to use tear gas instead of live ammunition to disperse what he called “criminal dissidents.”
The United Nations human rights office expressed concern about “widespread repression and intimidation against political opponents, human rights defenders, and journalists.”
Presidential candidate Mahfabi told CNN that he had been “targeted by the police” on several occasions. He narrated one such incident when his car was hit by gunfire in Amudat, a town in north-eastern Uganda. “Challenging Museveni comes with many risks,” Mafabi said.
CNN has reached out to law enforcement for comment.
According to the Electoral Commission, about 21.6 million Ugandans are registered to vote, less than half of the country’s population of more than 45 million. It is noteworthy that almost half of Uganda’s population is under the voting age of 18.
Recent polls show that corruption and unemployment remain voters’ top concerns. Uganda is grappling with significant government corruption, with approximately Sh10 trillion ($2.7 billion) of public funds being misappropriated annually, according to the country’s anti-corruption agency, the Government Inspectorate.
Furthermore, data released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics in September revealed that almost half of the country’s youth population between the ages of 18 and 30 are unemployed, uneducated or undertrained. This age group constitutes over 23% of Uganda’s total population.
Analysts believe many potential voters are desperate for new leadership. “Obviously everyone wants a different government,” said Yusuf Serunkuma, a columnist for the Uganda Observer and a researcher at Makerere University in the capital Kampala.
He added that while there was a widespread desire for change, “the government is very aware of all the areas where change could occur”.
Serunkuma said there was “zero chance” of Wine becoming president. He told CNN that Uganda’s opposition movement is being hampered by inefficient organizational structures.
“The government is taking steps to ensure that the incumbent is declared the winner,” he said, referring to allegations that the government has influence over the election commission.
Former MP and former African Union envoy Simon Mhlongo echoed Serunkuma’s predictions about the election outcome.
“Bobi Wine has emerged as a powerful symbol of generational aspirations. But winning national power requires more than a symbol,” he explained. “It requires detailed organizational structures, national coordination, and the ability to secure and protect votes across rural and urban areas.”
Wine rose to fame in the early 2000s for his vibrant dancehall music, which often addresses social injustice. His rise to global fame began in the 2010s when his song “Kiwani” was featured on the soundtrack of the Disney film Queen of Katwe (2016).
Despite his popularity, Wine has faced backlash for some of his past lyrics, including homophobic messages that advocate “banning and killing all homosexuals.”
As a result, he was banned from entering the UK for 10 years, which will be lifted in 2023.
After a visit to Britain two years ago, Wynne publicly abandoned his old beliefs, telling supporters that “people grow and change.”
In 2023, Ugandan lawmakers enacted the world’s toughest anti-gay laws, including the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality” and up to 20 years in prison for individuals who identify as LGBTQ+. CNN could not confirm whether Wine supports the bill.
Serunkuma expressed uncertainty about the potential for chaos during and after the election, calling the situation “unpredictable.”
“There’s so much anger and anxiety. We can’t be 100% sure where that spark is coming from,” he said. “This is a tense moment for everyone, and a tense election.”
However, Mhlongo does not expect any chaos on voting day.
“Historically, the voting itself has been relatively orderly, with most tensions arising either during the election period or after the results have been announced,” he explained. “The days after the results are announced will be just as important as Election Day itself.”
Under Museveni’s leadership, Uganda has emerged as a key ally of the West, contributing troops to regional military operations. The country currently shelters nearly 2 million refugees, the most in Africa.
Museveni maintains good relations with the United States, recently agreeing to accept immigrants rejected by the United States. He also facilitated the entry of French and Chinese companies to begin oil drilling in Uganda, with production expected to begin later this year.
Wine said he would review the oil contract if he wins the election, telling Reuters: “Any part of the agreement that is disadvantageous to Ugandans will definitely be revised.”
He has criticized Uganda’s foreign partners who continue to support Museveni despite his human rights record.
Serunkuma said this courting of Western countries could be a strategy by Museveni to tighten his grip on power as he seeks a seventh term in power.
“For 40 years, Museveni was very successful in retaining Western capital. That was his genius and that is what allowed him to hold power for so long,” he said.
