Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China comes at a pivotal time in bilateral relations.
Carney is the first Canadian leader to visit China since 2017, and is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
Recommended stories
list of 4 itemsend of list
Relations between Canada and China have been in deep freeze since December 2018, when Canadian authorities arrested a key executive of Chinese telecommunications company Huawei while traveling at Vancouver International Airport.
China has detained two Canadians in retaliation for the arrest of Meng Wanzhou at the request of US authorities.
The relationship continues to face challenges.
In 2024, Ottawa followed the line set by the U.S. government, imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and encouraging Beijing to impose tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural products, including canola.
Ottawa also condemned China’s political interference.
Against this backdrop, Secretary Carney’s visit “signals a recalibration and change of tone and signals Canada’s desire for improved relations,” said Bina Najibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
“This is probably Prime Minister Carney’s second most difficult visit after his first visit to the White House,” Najibullah told Al Jazeera.
Mr. Carney is enthusiastic about it. Diversify Canada’s economy and reduce dependence on the United States, the destination of nearly 80 per cent of Canada’s exports.
Canada has historically been one of the United States’ closest allies, but relations have deteriorated since Donald Trump returned to the White House..
President Trump has repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st state of the United States, while imposing flat and individual tariffs of 35% on steel, aluminum and lumber.
Carney has been traveling extensively, including to the European Union and Gulf states, to find new markets and investors for the economy, and after Beijing he is headed to Qatar. Canada’s leader has said he wants to double Canada’s trade outside the United States over the next 10 years.
In a first step toward thawing relations with China, Mr. Carney met with Mr. Xi in South Korea during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference in October.
“The prime minister is realistic and this visit will focus on specific economic agreements: Canadian energy and agricultural sales,” Najibullah said, adding that he does not expect tariffs between the two countries to be completely eliminated.
The visit is underway as a review of the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada. USMCA allowed Canadian and Mexican products covered by the agreement to be imported into the United States duty-free.
For Canada, this means about 86% of U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico are compliant, resulting in an effective tariff rate of about 6% on Canadian goods, Tony Stilo, director of Canadian economics at Oxford Economics, said in a note Wednesday.
Although Canada clearly benefits from the continuation of the USMCA, President Trump said by Tuesday that the trade deal was “irrelevant” to the United States.
But Stilo said that if no agreement is reached to extend or amend the USMCA, it would enter a mandatory annual review period until 2036, after which it would expire, resulting in “prolonged trade policy uncertainty.”
“If the North American Trade Agreement ultimately collapses, the three parties could revert to bilateral trade agreements to maintain mutual market access, but this would impose costs on North American trade and investment.”
“The victory of politics and storytelling”
Carney is keenly aware of the risks, but this visit is also important for China.
Najibullah said Beijing was on the lookout for “political and narrative victories” as well as new export markets and the removal of trade restrictions such as electric vehicle tariffs.
China has often criticized Canada for following the United States too closely, and he said Carney’s visit and subsequent policy changes would be portrayed as Ottawa “trying to right the wrongs of the past.”
Beijing’s ultimate hope will be for Canada to comply on sensitive issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Earlier this week, two Canadian MPs from Carney’s Liberal Party completed a trip to Taiwan, an autonomous territory claimed by the Chinese government, ahead of schedule on government advice.
Lawmakers cited the need to avoid “disruption” in Canada’s foreign policy ahead of Carney’s visit.
Najibullah called this an “alarming” development, adding that Canada would face a “very difficult balancing act” with China.
