The Trump administration touted last year’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities as a major military success.
U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped 14 of the world’s largest bombs, striking two Iranian nuclear facilities without causing any American casualties or loss of aircraft, including dozens of fighters, tankers, and support planes that contributed to the mission.
But analysts say a new U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic is unlikely to mirror the one-off strike that hit three nuclear targets last summer.
But these command centers are located in densely populated areas, analysts say, meaning there is a significant risk that the very civilians Trump is trying to help would be killed in a U.S. raid.
And the killing of civilians could backfire, nullifying what the US is trying to accomplish and giving the Iranian regime both a propaganda victory and a rallying cry, especially for a population that may want reform but also doesn’t want to be bombed by the US again.
“Whatever[the United States]does, it has to be very precise with no casualties other than the Revolutionary Guards,” said Carl Schuster, a former U.S. Navy captain and Hawaii-based analyst.
First, Iran’s top leadership may be vulnerable, most likely indirectly because Iran is learning from Israeli attacks that targeted and killed Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists last year, Layton said.
Iranian leaders “have recognized the need to disperse and hide what is important to Iran. We have shown that we can attack what we can find,” Schuster said.
“The military value is small, but doing something for the protesters is just theater,” he said.
Analysts said the US government could also hit Iranian leaders’ wallets.
He cited Australian government estimates that between one-third and two-thirds of Iran’s gross domestic product is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, and said there were a lot of them.
Layton added that “weak spots” could be found in the list of IRGC companies.
Schuster noted that there is some distance between the Revolutionary Guards and Iran’s supreme leadership.
“The aim is to make the Revolutionary Guards leadership and the general public worry more about their own survival than about the regime,” he said, adding: “The Revolutionary Guards themselves have never had suicidal thoughts.”
B-2 bombers were the last resort for U.S. attacks on nuclear facilities last summer, but analysts said the variety of targets now set could suit other U.S. assets.
The highly accurate Tomahawk can be launched from U.S. Navy submarines and surface ships off the Iranian coast, minimizing the risk of U.S. military casualties.
Another cruise missile option is the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM). 1,000ポンドの貫通弾頭を搭載し、最大射程620マイル（1,000キロメートル）のJASSMは、F-15、F-16、F-35戦闘機やB-1、B-2、B-52爆撃機、米海軍F/A-18戦闘機を含む一連の米空軍ジェット機からイラン沿岸から発射することもできる。
Analysts said drones could also be used.
“It is unlikely that manned aircraft would drop short-range weapons or free-fall bombs because they would likely be assessed as too dangerous,” Leighton said.
Aircraft carriers travel with clusters of ships that can also carry missiles and other operational support.秋、トランプ政権はベネズエラ指導部に対する圧力作戦の一環として、他の多数の艦船、航空機、数千人の軍隊とともに空母群をカリブ海に移動させた。これらの資産の一部は地域外に流出し始めているが、軍事計画立案者が対イラン即時行動をとるために利用できる選択肢は減少している。
昨夏のB-2攻撃では、ステルス爆撃機はミズーリ州の基地からイランまでノンストップで飛行し、途中空中給油を行った。 All of the US Air Force jets listed above can refuel in mid-air.
“The administration is interested in theater, which means dramatic, media-attracting, high-profile events,” he said.
And he said he expected a swift attack, similar to the one-off attack on a nuclear facility last year.
“The regime prefers short-duration raids that pose minimal risk to the U.S. forces involved.”
Leighton said one way to do that could be to attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf.
“It’s the easiest and safest goal setting,” he says.
