Israel’s December 26 recognition of Somaliland had little to do with the long-held aspirations of communities living in the breakaway region of Somaliland in northwestern Somalia. Rather, it was a product of changing geopolitics and a rapidly fragmenting world order. Once confined to the margins, the issue has since been drawn into the center of regional and international power struggles.
One of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea Corridor, separated by the Bab al-Mandab Strait, is a hotly contested area. Israel, the Gulf states, Türkiye, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and China are all currently deeply involved. In this context, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland suggests something broader. It is the increasing use of separatist movements as a disruptive tool of geopolitical strategy in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.
What some experts describe as a “separation axis” is already seen in Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Syria. Led by Israel and supported by a network of regional partners, the axis targets countries whose territories are only partially controlled by conflict-ridden central governments. The logic is simple. It weakens central authority, strengthens breakaway regions, and cultivates subordinate actors willing to work with Israel and sign the Abraham Accords.
For Israel, these emerging client state policies provide a strategic foothold in a volatile region. From there, you can monitor rivals, project power, secure key maritime routes, and expand your intelligence network. Israel also hopes that this strategy will force the “mother country” to reluctantly join the Abraham Accords. However, there are contradictions in this approach. Far from strengthening the agreement, it risks further destabilizing the region and undermining its legitimacy. Saudi Arabia has long been seen by the U.S. government and Tel Aviv as the ultimate prize for regional normalization, leading a concerted effort to thwart a secession axis.
Battle for the Red Sea
Beyond broader geopolitical conflicts, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is closely tied to competition over access to the Red Sea. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, carries about 10 percent of world trade. Control of the ports and coastline along this route gives it great influence in international commerce. Somaliland’s long coastline is therefore a strategic advantage. By recognizing Somaliland, Israel is entrenching itself within the strategic geographical area of the Horn of Africa.
The competition became clear in January 2024, when Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that gave it political recognition in exchange for sea access. The deal had clear strategic appeal for Ethiopia, the world’s most populous landlocked country. However, it turned out to be short-lived. In December 2024, following Turkish-mediated talks in Ankara, Somalia and Ethiopia agreed on a framework that reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and pointed to maritime access arrangements under Somalia’s authority, signaling a retreat from the previous access authorization logic. The episode highlighted both the fragility of such arrangements and the intensity of the geopolitical contest over Somaliland’s status.
China is also becoming an increasingly active participant. Somaliland’s decision to strengthen ties with Taiwan inevitably attracted the attention of Beijing, given China’s strict adherence to the “one China” policy and the view that engagement with Taipei is a direct challenge. At the same time, China has consistently supported Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and has used its diplomatic and economic influence to counter separatist forces it views as destabilizing. Beijing is currently working to dissuade key regional actors, including Ethiopia, from recognizing Somaliland.
For China, the Horn of Africa is not just about ports, shipping lanes, and mineral resources. It is also about preventing the spread of separatist precedents and countering moves that might embolden Taiwan. The result is an increasingly crowded and unstable theater where global power struggles and unresolved local aspirations intersect.
New Middle East Alliance and Somalia’s Choice
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland accelerated a broader reorganization in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, once close partners, are now at odds, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt have begun working together to counter what they see as a destabilizing “axis of secession.”
This change was first set in motion by the progress of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, which announced a move towards declaration of an independent state, and was then sharply reinforced by Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. For Saudi Arabia, these developments posed a direct threat to its sphere of influence and national security. In response, Riyadh led the creation of a new regional coalition bringing together Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar to counter the separatist movement and its external sponsors.
Each member of this new alliance has different concerns. Egypt is concerned that recognizing Somaliland would embolden Ethiopia, which remains embroiled in a bitter dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Turkey, which has invested heavily in Somalia’s security and economic sectors for more than a decade, sees the country’s fragmentation as a direct challenge to its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. Saudi Arabia views the separatist axis as an existential threat, starting with Yemen, where separatist advances directly threaten its security. Together, these countries are positioning themselves as defenders of sovereignty and regional cohesion, while also coordinating diplomatic efforts to dissuade the United States from following Israel’s lead.
For Somalia, the impact is profound. Anchoring foreign policy within this new alliance is no longer a matter of preference, but a matter of urgency. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar all have a direct stake in maintaining Somalia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence. However, Somalia’s external relations were too often unstable, characterized by mixed signals and internal contradictions. In an existential crisis, hedging between competing blocks is no longer viable. Somalia urgently needs to recalibrate its diplomacy to capitalize on its geostrategic importance and build lasting and reliable partnerships.
Equally important is the need for domestic political cohesion. With parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for May, Somalia’s federal government will need to seek consensus among key political actors on unresolved and divisive issues, including the controversial 2024 interim constitutional amendment and a credible electoral framework. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has so far shown limited willingness to compromise. Failure to secure an urgent domestic agreement risks creating an opening for Israel and its regional proxies to exploit Somalia’s internal divisions.
Somaliland paradox
Ironically, Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition may have been undermined by its dependence on Israel. Israel’s global standing, already severely damaged by the massacre in Gaza, makes perceptions by Tel Aviv politically harmful to many parts of the Arab and Muslim world. Rather than advance Somaliland’s case, the association risks deepening its isolation.
This move will also have an impact domestically. A significant portion of Somaliland’s population opposes normalizing relations with Israel, especially amid widespread claims that Israel is seeking to resettle Palestinian refugees from Gaza in Somaliland, a claim denied by the breakaway region’s leadership. Instead of strengthening its sovereignty, Somaliland now faces growing external resistance and the possibility of growing internal dissent.
These challenges are further exacerbated by changing realities on the ground. Somaliland no longer exercises control over all the territory it claims as former British Somaliland. In July 2025, a new federal member state, the Northeastern State of Somalia, was established across a large swath of this territory, quickly pledging allegiance to the Federal Government of Somalia. Its emergence strengthened Somalia’s territorial integrity and further weakened Somaliland’s efforts to seek international recognition.
At the diplomatic level, Israel’s decision triggered a wave of international support for Somalia. All major regional and global organizations, including IGAD, the African Union, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union, and India, have reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Even the United States, Israel’s closest ally, joined other members of the United Nations Security Council in reiterating its commitment to Somalia’s unity. What was intended as a breakthrough for Somaliland instead strengthened Somalia’s diplomatic position and exposed the contradictions of recognition in an increasingly fragmented international system.
Unless Israel succeeds in persuading US President Donald Trump to recognize Somaliland, a difficult task given the countervailing weight of the Saudi-led alliance, hopes for a broader domino effect appear to have stalled.
When recognition backfires
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is not an isolated act, but part of a broader strategy, the so-called Axis of Separation, to exploit the vulnerabilities of war-torn countries, from Libya and Yemen to Sudan, Somalia and Syria. By empowering the breakaway regions, Israel has sought to rebuild regional order with the support of key regional partners, particularly the United Arab Emirates. On the contrary, it provoked determined resistance.
Ethiopia’s terminated Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, China’s aggressive defense of Somali sovereignty, and deepening rifts with Saudi Arabia and the UAE all highlight the instability and limitations of this approach. For Somaliland, the decision to link its recognition strategy with Israel backfired, increasing its diplomatic isolation while increasing domestic opposition and weakening its territorial control.
The lessons are equally clear for Somalia. Our survival as a sovereign state now depends on urgency, internal cohesion, and decisive alignment with an emerging Middle East alliance that stands against division and secession. Far from advancing separatist ambitions, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland strengthened the international consensus surrounding Somalia’s territorial integrity. It also exposed the limits of recognition as a geopolitical tool in an increasingly fragmented world order.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
