Some employees at the largest US military base in the Middle East are being asked to leave, US officials told CNN on Wednesday, as countries in the region press the Trump administration to reconsider military action against Iran.
US officials described the order for some personnel to leave Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base as a “precautionary measure” given current tensions in the region.
The US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar advised their staff to “intensify their vigilance and limit non-essential travel” to military installations in the region, and the embassy in Riyadh called on citizens to maintain a “personal safety plan.”
Meanwhile, unrest is spreading in Iran’s neighboring countries. These countries are concerned that the attack could destabilize the region and have far-reaching consequences, and have consulted with the Trump administration to voice their concerns.
Arab and Turkish officials significantly stepped up diplomatic efforts this week to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran, sources told CNN.
“Any military escalation would have repercussions for the entire region, including security and economy,” a regional official familiar with the matter told CNN on Wednesday.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have launched diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation, the official said. Arab governments have warned that the current attack could “have the opposite effect and unite Iranian populations on both sides of the aisle in support of the regime,” a regional official said.
Iran closed its airspace for about five hours on Wednesday night to all flights except for international commercial flights, with prior permission from aviation authorities.
US President Donald Trump has warned Tehran not to kill demonstrators after Iranian authorities launched a brutal crackdown on demonstrations, sparking two weeks of nationwide protests that were the largest in years.
But President Trump said Wednesday that he had been informed that Iran had “no plans for executions,” adding that “a very important source on the other side” had assured him that no executions would take place.
Trump’s comments came in response to concerns over the fate of protester Erfan Soltani, who was sentenced to death after being detained last week, according to the US State Department. Iranian judicial authorities said he had not been sentenced to death and disputed claims that he was scheduled to be executed, according to the state-run IRIB news agency.
Turkey is also in touch with Iranian and US officials about returning to the negotiating table, diplomatic sources in the region told CNN on Wednesday. But it may be “too late”, officials warned.
“Currently, talks are progressing. The pace of negotiations is slow (and) at this speed it may be too late,” the person said.
On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said his country was trying to “support” the deal between Iran and the United States, which “brings a win-win situation” for both sides.
“The stability of the region depends on it,” Fidan said.
Turkey, a NATO member, is feeling economic pressure and security risks from taking in millions of Syrian refugees from Syria’s decade-long civil war, and risks encountering a new wave of refugees if the Iranian regime collapses.
But perhaps Iran’s main destabilizing concern is the risk of unrest in neighboring Kurdish regions, which the Turkish government fears could spill over across the border and reignite separatist sentiment. Turkey reached a historic turning point in its decades-long conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) last year after the group’s militants abandoned violence and secession ambitions.
In Saudi Arabia, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday that “everyone is closely monitoring the situation.”
“Everyone wants the situation to be resolved in a way that minimizes any harm,” he said.
Since President Trump first threatened to intervene last week, more than 2,000 demonstrators have been killed by Iranian forces, which have accused them of a “foreign-backed insurgency.” President Trump doubled down on that in a social media post on Tuesday, calling on the Iranians to take over the system and promising that “help is on the way.”
President Trump also announced that he had “cancelled all meetings” with Iranian officials, following reports over the weekend suggesting possible negotiations between the United States and Iran.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, and Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s national security apparatus, met with Qatar’s foreign minister.
Influx of refugees and fears of border violence
Countries in the region fear a variety of consequences if Iran is attacked or its regime collapses, including Iranian military retaliation against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf, a possible influx of refugees, cross-border insurgencies, and a resurgence of separatist movements.
Energy-rich Iran is one of the most populous and ethnically diverse countries in the Middle East, with a population of over 90 million people and vast territory bordering the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is also a key global oil chokepoint, with about 20 million barrels of oil passing through it every day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“The possibility of Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities slipping out of state control, the outbreak of a separatist rebellion by Iran’s ethnic minority, and a mass refugee crisis are among the key scenarios that could have long-term negative consequences for Gulf security,” said Hasan Al-Hasan, a senior fellow at the Bahrain International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Iranian leaders have vowed to retaliate against US regional interests. In June, the Iranian government targeted Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response to a US attack on its nuclear facilities.
Former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassem Al Thani said US military action against Iran was “not in the interests of America’s friends in the region” and called on neighboring Arab states in the Gulf to “persuade” the US to enter into negotiations.
“Any action that destabilizes Iran will lead to chaos with unknown outcomes. We disagree with Iran on many points, and dialogue is the way to resolve these differences,” he said on X.
Another neighboring country likely to be concerned about spillovers from Iran is Pakistan, which could be drawn into a cross-border insurgency involving armed separatist groups operating in Iran’s disputed border areas.
Over 300 Pakistanis, including students, pilgrims, workers and tourists, returned to Pakistan from Iran in the past two days. Officials say the number of returnees is steadily increasing as more Pakistanis choose to return home.
