Tangshan, China – January 1: A nurse breastfeeds a newborn baby at the Mother and Child Health Hospital in Tangshan, Hebei Province, China on January 1, 2026. (Photo credit: Zhu Dayong/VCG, Getty Images)
Zhu Dayong | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s birth rate hit a record low last year, underscoring the deepening demographic crisis as the government struggles to reverse a declining and aging population.
Data compiled by Wind Information dating back to the 1950s shows the number of births will decline from 6.4 in 2023 to 5.6 per 1,000 in 2025, the lowest level on record.
Despite efforts by the Chinese government to encourage larger families through better subsidies and expanded parental leave, around 7.9 million babies were born last year, significantly fewer than 9.5 million the year before, data from the Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.
Even though the country began relaxing its strict one-child policy about a decade ago, the birthrate continued to fall sharply, except for a brief spike in 2024, when it rose to 6.77 births per 1,000 people. This increase is widely believed to be due to the Year of the Dragon, which is traditionally considered an auspicious time to have children.
“The pace of decline is remarkable in the absence of a particularly large shock,” said Yue Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
He added that increasing economic pressures and increased competition in the workplace are causing young people to postpone marriage and childbearing plans, while the boost from pro-fertility measures is waning.
Policymakers have offered a variety of incentives, including cash transfers and tax breaks for households with children under three. The Chinese government has also extended maternity leave from 98 days to 158 days in 2024.
China is facing an impending demographic crisis as its elderly population increases. The proportion of the population aged 60 and over will rise from 22% in 2024 to 23% in 2025.
According to the Statistics Bureau, the population has been declining for four consecutive years, dropping by 3.4 million to 1.45 billion last year.
Economists have warned that a shrinking workforce and aging population pose major economic risks. Fewer babies means there will be less workforce available in the future to support a rapidly growing population of retirees, increasing pressure on already strained pension systems. It is also possible that young workers will be forced to raise their social security contributions, putting pressure on young workers’ disposable income.
“A declining population means a shrinking future consumer base, increasing the risk of widening the supply-demand imbalance,” Su said, calling for stronger policy responses to the birth rate.
According to World Bank data, the fertility rate, defined as the number of births per woman, fell to 1 in China in 2023, the latest year available, below the global average level of 2.2.
