Beijing
—
China’s birth rate will hit a record low in 2025 as its population declines for the fourth year in a row, deepening demographic challenges that could drag down the world’s second-largest economy for decades to come.
The birth rate in 2025 will fall to 5.63 per 1,000 people, below the 2023 low of 6.39 per 1,000, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. This decline suggests that the small increase in births in 2024 was an outlier rather than a reversal of the steady decline since 2016.
Officials also reported that China’s economy will grow by 5% in 2025, in line with the government’s annual target of about 5%.
The year’s economic expansion was supported by a surge in Chinese exports, which offset trade tensions with the United States and weak domestic consumption. China racked up a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion last year, despite US President Donald Trump’s intermittent trade wars with the world’s second-largest economy.
However, the data also showed an economic slowdown in the fourth quarter, with the country growing at just 4.5% year-on-year, the slowest quarterly growth since the end of 2022.
Officials praised the “remarkable stability” of the economy, with Statistics Bureau chief Kang Yi saying this was achieved despite “a complex and difficult situation characterized by rapid changes in the external environment and increasing domestic challenges.”
“China’s economy in 2025 has withstood pressure, maintained steady progress, and achieved new achievements in high-quality development,” Kang said at a press conference.
The birth numbers are a blow to Beijing’s efforts to persuade more young people to have children, reversing the effects of decades of strict state-enforced birth control under the now-abandoned “one child” policy, even as annual economic growth is on target.
According to the data, 7.92 million babies were born in China last year, the number of deaths exceeded 11.31 million, and the total population decreased by 3.39 million. The country remains the second-largest workforce in the world after India, reaching 1.4 billion in 2025.
China’s changing demographics are seen as a tough challenge for officials, as China’s labor force shrinks and the number of retired adults on pensions increases.
Years of strict population control under the “one child” policy, abolished in 2016, are accelerating trends seen in other countries such as Japan and South Korea, where birth rates are falling as a result of rising education levels, changing attitudes to marriage, rapid urbanization and soaring costs of raising children.
According to the data, the aging of Chinese society will further progress in 2025, with the number of people aged 60 and over reaching 323 million, accounting for 23% of the population, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2024.
According to United Nations projections, an astonishing half of China’s population could be over 60 years old by 2100, a reality with potentially far-reaching implications not only for China’s economy but also for its ambitions to rival the United States as a military power.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has emphasized the need for “population security” and has made “cultivating a high-quality population” a national priority. He has also overseen the country’s manufacturing powerhouse’s automation and upgrade drive, replacing humans with robot workers.
Last year, China’s central government began giving annual cash bonuses to families with children under three, revised rules to streamline marriage registration and launched a plan to make public kindergartens free of charge.
These are in addition to a number of incentives that local governments have tried in recent years to boost birth rates, from tax breaks and financial support for home purchases and rentals to cash transfers and extended maternity leave.
The decrease in the number of births last year compared to 2024 may also be related to the Chinese zodiac, with the Year of the Snake in 2025 considered less favorable for offspring than the previous year’s Year of the Dragon.
Analysts expect more policies and incentives to support childbirth and marriage in the coming year. But many believe it is impossible to stem population decline, especially as young people struggle to find work and face the high cost of childcare, while women say the unequal burden of childcare is deterring them from starting or expanding families.
Fewer babies could also have a more direct economic impact.
“Children are ‘super consumers’. With births at such low levels, China’s domestic demand is likely to remain weak and the economy will become increasingly dependent on exports,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographic expert and senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US.
China’s 5% GDP target shows the resilience of its economy during a year in which tariffs on Chinese imports to the United States briefly reached triple digits.
But analysts say this growth masks deeper challenges to the domestic economy that policymakers are under pressure to address in the year ahead.
Growth slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter, the slowest rate on record since the economy reopened after the coronavirus pandemic. The figure was slightly higher than the 4.4% expected by analysts polled by Reuters, and the data allows the country to meet its 5% growth target in a year in which economic growth lost steam after a strong start.
But while Beijing seeks to project a resilient image, economists remain concerned about weak household spending amid deflationary pressures and an overreliance on exports to fuel growth, especially at a time when governments around the world are increasingly wary of widening trade imbalances.
Chinese manufacturers and exporters made a nimble pivot in 2025, pushing their products deeper into markets around the world, including Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, as their access to the U.S. market came under pressure from President Trump’s levy. These duties are currently 20%, imposed on top of existing tariffs after a trade ceasefire was reached late last year.
Despite strong export-led momentum in the first half of 2025, the economy slowed in the second half of the year, weighed down by weak consumption growth, falling investment, and sharp declines in industrial profits.
Retail sales in December increased by only 0.9% compared to November’s 1.3% increase, highlighting the weakness in consumer spending.
Over the year, investment in housing, manufacturing and infrastructure slowed to historic lows, contracting 3.8%, according to data released Monday. This was the first annual decline on record. Of this amount, real estate development decreased by 17.2% as the real estate sector remained sluggish.
Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a note on Monday that one bright spot for the economy was “strong AI and technology investment and solid financial market activity.”
“Authorities did not rush to stimulate the economy towards the end of the year because the 5% target was within reach, supported by strong exports,” they wrote.
The Chinese government is expected to set growth targets in March when the rubber-stamp Legislative Council convenes. The government will also announce the next five-year economic blueprint, which will guide the country’s development strategy and policy priorities over the next five years.
The OECD predicted in a note last month that China’s economic growth would slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, while the IMF predicted growth of 4.5% in the year ahead.
The economy went from a boom period of double-digit growth to a slowdown more than a decade ago, and has been slowing for years. Officials have acknowledged that growth will be slow, despite the goal of doubling the country’s per capita GDP by 2035.
The accuracy of China’s GDP statistics is also in question, with some analysts claiming the numbers are inflated to hide much lower growth. In a report released last month, Rhodium Group analysts argued that China’s GDP in 2025 will actually grow by 2.5% to 3%.
Observers will be watching to see how high China aims when it sets a new GDP target later this year, and how much the government tries to force consumer spending next year to boost economic momentum.
