Reliance Retail’s December quarter revenue grew by just 8.1% year-on-year, with EBITDA improving by just 2%.
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Reliance Industries, India’s largest corporate group, is battling geopolitical headwinds in its oil refining business and reportedly one new energy business. But these are not the biggest concerns for the oil and communications conglomerate.
Analysts maintained a buy rating on Reliance’s shares, but cut their earnings forecasts and lowered their price targets due to the slowdown in the group’s third-largest retail business.
Reliance Retail’s revenue grew only 8.1% year-on-year and its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) improved by just 2% last quarter, raising questions about its ability to deliver high growth.
Isha Ambani, head of retail operations, told shareholders at last year’s annual general meeting: “We are confident that we can achieve a CAGR of more than 20% in retail sales over the next three years.”
Macquarie Capital has removed Reliance from its list of Asia’s leading companies. Reliance Retail’s slowing growth momentum has “been a significant driver of volatility” in the group’s overall valuation, the global brokerage said in a report on Monday.
Citi cut its price target to 1,815 rupees ($19.9) per share from 1,860 rupees, while UBS cut its price target to 1,790 rupees from 1,820 rupees. UBS had expected its retail business to grow 10% year-on-year in the December quarter.
In September, just ahead of the festive season, the Indian government reduced excise and service tax rates to stimulate domestic consumption. However, the recovery in demand was uneven across segments, with gold and auto sales increasing in the December quarter, while fashion and consumer staples growth slowed.
“With no short-term boost in consumer demand in sight, we enter 2026 with bleak expectations. We expect the effects of stimulus to be delayed, but we expect a modest recovery at best, not a dramatic recovery,” Bernstein said in a note earlier this week.
Reliance Retail’s peers, including Avenue Supermarkets and Tata Group-owned Torrent, also reported slower growth in the December quarter. Reliance said the growth rate slowed because demand during last year’s Christmas season was split into the second and third quarters.
Reliance Retail has also claimed that its December quarter results are not comparable to the same period last year as its consumer staples business has been demerged and is now a direct subsidy of Reliance Industries.
Total revenue from the consumer staples business in the December quarter was 50.65 billion rupees ($556.8 million), about 5% of Reliance Retail’s revenue of 976 billion rupees.
Securities firms view the December quarter results as a long-term downward trend rather than a temporary factor in the company’s growth. Citi on Monday cut its forecast for Reliance’s consolidated EBITDA from 2026 to 2028 by 1-2 per cent, citing “moderation” in the retail business.
Reliance Industries’ stock price has fallen nearly 5% since the company’s results, even as its core oil refining business appears to be weathering a tough business environment and its large telecom business has reported steady growth.
overcome headwinds
Reliance had to cut imports of cheap Russian crude after the US imposed sanctions on oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, one of which had long-term supply contracts with Indian companies.
Pankaj Srivastava, Rystad Energy’s senior vice president of commodity oil, said the company was one of the largest consumers of Russian crude, accounting for 40-45% of the crude oil mix at its peak.
Goldman Sachs said in a report on Monday that EBITDA for its oil-to-chemical business, which includes refining and petrochemicals, rose 15% year over year, and that “refining margin strength more than compensated for lower Russian crude oil intake, higher freight rates and petrochemical weakness.”
Geopolitical concerns also appear to be weighing on the company’s new energy business. Bloomberg reported last week that the company’s plans to build a battery storage factory with an annual capacity of 40 gigawatts have been postponed. The report claimed that Indian companies were unable to source technology from China due to Chinese government restrictions on technology transfer.
At the company’s financial results conference, the company denied any delay in the project. Karan Suri, senior vice president of new energy operations, said the company is progressing rapidly with the installation of a 40 gigawatt battery storage plant, with commissioning expected to take place “in the coming quarters.”
Unaffected by domestic consumption concerns and geopolitical tensions, Reliance’s telecom business continued to deliver stable performance, meeting the expectations of brokerages such as UBS and Citi.
The company, which is aiming to go public this year, reported a 12.7% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 16.4% increase in EBITDA. The company added 8.9 million customers during the quarter, bringing total subscribers to 515 million.
