Arsenal have already secured a place in the last 16 of the Champions League, but the remaining five Premier League clubs still have work to do in the final round of the league.
So, in terms of the current league phase table standings, what do Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City need to do to join the Gunners in the knockouts, and what combinations do they have?
First, remember that the top 8 players from the league phase will advance directly to the Round of 16, but players ranked 9th through 16th will be seeded into the playoffs in the knockout phase, and players ranked 17th through 24th will not be seeded into the playoffs in the knockout phase. The remaining teams are completely eliminated from the competition.
Remarkably, only two teams are certain to finish inside the top eight heading into the final week: Arsenal and Bayern. At the bottom of the table, only four teams were eliminated: Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal, and Kairat. The other 30 people all have something to do.
Ahead of the final match on Wednesday, January 28th at 8pm, we take a look at the Premier League teams, with Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea currently in the top eight, with Manchester City only in first place on goal difference.
Arsenal (1st place, 21 points) – Final group match, home match against Kairat Almaty
Arsenal maintained their 100% league record by defeating Inter Milan, ensuring they will finish in the top two.
You may not know this, but this is important. Because the new rules designed for this season mean that finishing higher would make the Champions League knockout route easier in terms of home advantage.
The top four teams in the Champions League standings will be awarded a home round of 16 and a second leg of the quarter-finals. The top two teams in the Champions League standings will also be given home advantage for the second leg of the semi-final stage.
Mikel Arteta’s side are three points behind on 18 points and need just a draw in their final league game at home against bottom-of-the-table Kairat Almaty to secure top spot ahead of Bayern Munich, who need one point to secure second place.
Arsenal lost the game against Kairat Almaty, and Bayern Munich won the final match against PSV Eindhoven, allowing them to advance to the final match with Arsenal’s goal difference of +18 and Bayern’s +13 equal or better.
After points and goal difference, the league phase table position is divided by league phase total points, then away goals scored, number of wins, and number of away wins.
But beyond the bragging rights, there is little reward for finishing first or second, as the top two are given the same advantage as the home second leg in the knockout stages.
Liverpool (4th place, 15 points) – Final group game, home against Qarabag
Victory in Marseille puts Liverpool in a position where they not only secure a top-eight finish, but also have a strong chance of securing a top-four spot.
But first of all, the table is very crowded, with only three points separating Real Madrid in 3rd place and Juventus in 15th place, so to ensure they avoid the play-offs, Liverpool themselves must beat Qarabag, who still have a chance of making it to the top eight. A draw might be enough, but Wednesday night will start with nine teams below Liverpool in the table but with the potential to finish with 16 points or more.
So we have to win against Karabagh. If Liverpool win, they will advance to the last four and Anfield will host the second leg of the last-16 tie and the second leg of the quarter-final tie.
Tottenham (5th place, 14 points) – Final group game away against Frankfurt
Spurs are fifth in the table with 14 points from seven games, so they are already guaranteed a top-16 finish and the worst-case scenario would mean they would be seeded for the play-off rounds.
A win in the final away game against Eintracht Frankfurt, who have already been eliminated, would guarantee a top-eight finish and Spurs could move up to third place, guaranteeing them a place in the Round of 16 and the home second leg of the quarter-finals, subject to the new rules mentioned above.
However, if they draw with Frankfurt, there is a chance they could surpass Spurs on points if eight teams, including PSG, win.
If they lose to Frankfurt, the number of teams they can overtake with 15 or 16 points increases to 10. Borussia Dortmund, in 11th place, could also surpass Tottenham with a win and a four-goal difference.
Newcastle (7th place, 13 points) – Final group game away against PSG
The bad news for Newcastle is that they will play away to the holders and sixth-placed Paris Saint-Germain in their final group game.
The good news is that the 3-0 win against PSV means PSV will start next Wednesday night in seventh place, giving them the reassurance that they have already secured a top half finish among play-off teams should they slip out of the top eight. This means that the first match of the playoff tie will be played away from home.
And don’t overlook the fact that if Real Madrid, Liverpool and Tottenham can move up the table with a win in France, Newcastle could also finish in the top four.
But the midpoint is that Newcastle will also travel to Paris with little or no margin of error. There are currently eight teams outside of the top eight, but as they are within two points of Newcastle, they will automatically advance to the last 16 without thinking about anything other than victory. What about the game next week? There’s no doubt about it.
Chelsea (8th place, 13 points) – final group game away to Napoli
Moises Caicedo’s late winner against Paphos, which saw Chelsea move up seven places, is another example of how crowded the table is.
But what goes up can come down, and the worry for Chelsea ahead of their final trip to Napoli is that even if goal difference rules out Galatasari and Qarabag as possible usurpers, eight different teams could be ahead if they lose to Napoli.
Also, a draw won’t be enough to keep Chelsea in the top eight. Even if Chelsea got one point in Napoli, if only one of Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta or Inter won, and either Dortmund or Juventus won by two or more points, Chelsea would finish ninth or lower.
Man City (11th place, 13 points) – Final group match, home match against Galatasaray
Manchester City’s shock defeat to Bodø/Glimt leaves them outside of the top eight and they need a result next Wednesday to avoid the play-offs.
City are one of eight teams currently on 13 points, along with Chelsea and Newcastle, but unlike Chelsea, Newcastle, Atalanta and Sporting will play each other at home next week.
At least that’s an advantage for them. Unfortunately for City, that hasn’t been their recent form and goal difference could be an issue even if they win against Galatasaray.
However, with either Tottenham or PSG dropping points and Chelsea and Newcastle having tough tasks, a win will be enough for City to move into the top eight.
Which teams have already qualified for the Round of 16?
Arsenal – Bayern Munich also secure top 2 spot
When is the Champions League knockout stage in 2025/26?
Playoff Draw: January 30, 2026
Knockout Playoffs: February 17-18 and 24-25, 2026
Round 16: March 10-11 and 17-18, 2026
Quarterfinals: April 7-8 and 14-15, 2026
Semi-finals: April 28-29 and May 5-6, 2026
Finals: Saturday, May 30, 2026
Where will the Champions League final be held in 2026?
The 2025/26 Champions League final will be held on Saturday 30th May at the Puskas Arena in Budapest.
