The presidents of Ukraine, Russia and the United States are preparing to hold their first trilateral meeting this weekend to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, but nearly half of the country remains without electricity and heat in freezing temperatures after repeated attacks by Russian drones targeting its energy infrastructure.
The attack appeared to be aimed at breaking Ukraine’s resistance to negotiations on territorial concessions to Russia, but Ukraine and the United States said the issue remained unresolved at the end of talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump in Davos, Switzerland, this week.
After these talks on Thursday, President Zelenskiy said that an agreement had been reached on security and that the next step would be trilateral talks starting today in Abu Dhabi, which would also include Russian President Vladimir Putin.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said all but one issue had been resolved in negotiations so far, but he did not say what it was. But President Zelenskiy told reporters in Davos that it was a territorial issue.
territorial issues
Russia wants Ukraine to cede one-fifth of the eastern Donetsk region it does not yet occupy. A poll conducted this week by the Kiev Institute of International Sociology (KIIS) found that 54% of Ukrainians agreed with President Zelensky’s categorical rejection, while the remaining 39% reluctantly supported concessions in exchange for very strong security.
Russia touts the capture of small settlements as a strategic achievement, claims to have conquered cities it does not control, and exaggerates its area in an effort to make its eventual victory seem inevitable.
Last week, Russian Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had captured 300 square kilometers (116 square miles) of Ukraine this year. Estimates based on geolocated footage suggest the truth is closer to 74 square kilometers (29 square miles), according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
Without any significant results on the battlefield, the energy crisis now appears desperately to be leveraged by the Russian government to gain territory that it may not be able to conquer in the long run.
Almost 60 percent of Kiev remained without power on January 21, 12 days after Russia’s major attacks on January 9 and 13, and power infrastructure was severely damaged again this Tuesday.
“As of this morning, around 4,000 buildings in Kyiv remain without heating and nearly 60% of the capital is without power,” Zelensky said on social media.
Zelenskiy said this reflected the situation across the country, where only 60% of electricity demand was met.
Child welfare organization UNICEF said the energy crisis was putting Ukrainian children at risk of hypothermia and pneumonia.
“Nearly 58,000 repair personnel alone are working almost 24 hours a day to maintain power grids, power generation facilities and heating networks,” President Zelenskiy said in a speech Sunday night.
“If the Russians really wanted to end the war, they would focus on diplomacy, not missile attacks, blackouts, or even attempts to damage nuclear power plants,” he said.
Adaptation to Russian weapons
On Tuesday, January 20, Russia cut off all electricity supplies to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, said International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi.
According to the IAEA, nuclear power plants require electrical connections even when they are not producing electricity to keep the reactor cooling systems running. On the same day, Russia launched 339 attack drones and 34 missiles across Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
Ukraine intercepted 27 missiles and 315 drones, but Zelenskiy said, “The air force’s performance against ‘Shahed’ is not satisfactory,” referring to Iranian-designed propeller-driven drones developed by Russia.
Zelenskiy had already announced major changes on Monday. “There will be a new approach to the use of air defense by the Air Force, especially with regard to mobile fire groups, interceptor drones and other short-range air defense means. This system will be transformed,” he said in a video address in the evening.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia also announced that it was attacking Kiev with Shahed drones, which are equipped with jet engines and are faster and more difficult to intercept.
Ukraine is adapting. On January 15, the Air Force posted a video showing a Sting drone successfully intercepting a jet-powered Shahed aircraft. The Sting was developed by Wild Hornets, a Ukrainian charity that raises money for air defense, and was designed to kill Shahed.
President Zelenskiy also wants to accelerate innovation to counter Russia’s defense adaptations. As part of this effort, he appointed Mikhail Fedorov as defense minister on January 2 to oversee speeding up drone production, and on Tuesday appointed Col. Pavlo Elizarov as deputy chief of the air force.
“With the participation of Pavlo Yelizarov, the “Small Air Defense” system will be improved, taking into account his experience and innovative approach,” wrote Oleksandr Silsky, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
President Zelensky has long warned Ukrainians to expect worse. On Sunday, he said it again. “Russia is preparing for a strike, a major strike, and is waiting for the moment to carry it out,” he said.
Silsky told Ukrainian news agency Ib.ua that Russia plans to increase production of Shahed from 404 to 1,000 vehicles per day.
The situation in Ukraine was dire when Mr. Zelensky traveled to Switzerland to meet Mr. Trump this week.
“Today in Ukraine was the most difficult day for the electricity system since the November 2022 power outage,” Energy Minister Denis Shmyhal wrote on Thursday. “The situation is extremely difficult. Crews must continue to rely on emergency shutdowns.”
A fiasco followed by a commotion
The Trump-Zelensky meeting was held to coincide with the World Economic Forum in Davos, where European leaders initially expected to support the announcement of an $800 billion plan to rebuild Ukraine.
It was derailed by President Trump’s creation of a peace commission and his attempt to acquire Greenland from Denmark. It seems that the fact that he did not win the Nobel Peace Prize last year was also on his mind.
“Given your country’s decision not to award me the Nobel Peace Prize for preventing eight wars plus, I no longer feel obligated to think purely about peace, but now I can think about what is good and appropriate for the United States of America, although peace always prevails,” Trump wrote to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gare Stoer on Sunday, adding that he was seeking “full and complete control of Greenland.”
In response, eight Baltic and North Sea states decided to send military reinforcements to the island, which is autonomous but part of the Kingdom of Denmark.
In a rambling 71-minute speech at Davos on Wednesday, President Trump reversed his stance by saying he would not fight with NATO allies for Greenland, but the diplomatic damage was significant. A government official told the Financial Times: “At this point, no one is in the mood to stage a huge spectacle over the deal with President Trump.”
At Davos, European officials generally continued to show respect for the United States, but there were also comments that indicated a difference in the atmosphere behind the scenes.
European diplomats said the Brussels government is floating the idea of granting Ukraine preliminary membership in the EU in 2027 as part of Ukraine’s security. Full membership will follow.
The idea goes against the EU’s normal merit-based accession process, but diplomatic officials argued that Ukraine’s security should take precedence over that process. “We have to recognize that we are in a very different reality than when the[accession]rules were first drawn up,” one EU official was quoted as saying.
Finnish President Alexander Stubbe said during a security debate that Europe could “unequivocally” protect itself without the United States. He also said Russia had not won the war and had occupied “at most” 1% of Ukraine’s territory in the past 1,000 days, costing hundreds of thousands of lives.
On January 15, President Macron reminded the French military that a coalition of 35 countries, excluding the United States, was providing all military and financial support to Ukraine after the United States adopted neutrality in the war under the Trump administration.
“Ukraine is extremely dependent on American intelligence capabilities, which a year ago the majority (of) was provided by France, and in the past year two-thirds of it is now provided by France,” Macron said.
In Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen further clarified the need for Europe to decouple from US foreign and defense policy.
“Changes in the international order are not only dramatic but also permanent,” he told the European Parliament on Wednesday, adding: “It is essential for Europe…to accelerate its drive towards independence…Europe needs its own levers of power…above all it needs a real ability to protect itself.”
