A rapidly strengthening storm is expected to develop off the Southeast coast this weekend amid a deadly cold front, likely bringing snow and strong winds to parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. It comes just days after a historic winter storm hit much of the East Coast.
Further north along Interstate 95, the forecast is less certain, with a slight shift in the storm’s path potentially bringing heavy snowstorms or breezy days with light snow to major cities in the Northeast.
Models are increasingly positioning themselves above a low pressure system that formed early Saturday morning off the coast of the Carolinas and is rapidly developing into a bomb cyclone. How much snow, if any, falls in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be determined by how close the storm moves northward to the coast over the weekend.
The most reliable forecast is for parts of the Southeast, including the Carolinas and southern Virginia, where snow and strong winds are likely to start Saturday.
Models agree that even if the path changes slightly, the storm will approach close enough to bring snow to the region. While exact snowfall totals are still being worked out, the signs of snow accumulation are strong enough to raise concerns about dangerous travel, especially when cold air is already firmly in place.
The heaviest snow is expected near the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia, where cities like Raleigh, North Carolina, and Roanoke, Virginia, could receive 6 to 12 inches of snow. Total amounts are expected to be lower inland, with some models showing debris flying as far west as Atlanta, Knoxville and Roanoke.
Strong winds could further worsen the situation, and heavy snowfall could lead to blizzard conditions and scattered power outages. The snow is expected to continue into Sunday as the storm intensifies offshore.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: A close shave between snowstorms and severe weather.
Further north, in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, forecast confidence drops sharply, as the storm’s final path plays a key role in determining its impact.
As of early Thursday, areas near the coast and further north in New England appear to have the best chance of accumulating snow. Still, a trip of just 160 to 200 miles can dramatically change the outcome, especially in cities along I-95.
Railroads along the coast can produce significant snowstorms with harmful winds and dangerously cold temperatures. Tracks a little further offshore are likely to experience a blowout, and cities like Washington, DC, Philadelphia, and New York City could experience light snow or primarily windy conditions.
Boston has a higher chance of snow due to its location further east and closer to the storm’s expected path.
Even in areas without snow, coastal impacts remain a serious concern in parts of the East Coast as the storm rapidly intensifies offshore.
According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, “Wind gusts near hurricane strength will coincide with astronomical storm surge, causing moderate to locally significant coastal flooding.”
Strong winds, high waves, and coastal erosion are possible from the southeastern coast to parts of the northeast, especially if the storm intensifies quickly as it approaches the coast. Coastal flooding is determined by the storm’s strength, timing, and proximity to the coastline, but dangerous marine conditions can occur regardless of its exact path.
Heavy snow and strong winds could worsen the effects of last weekend’s deadly winter storm, as many communities grapple with power restoration and drilling as the cold continues.
Bottom line: If you live in the Northeast from the Carolinas, pay close attention to the latest forecasts and prepare now.
