The United States and Iran have made increasingly hostile statements as U.S. warships move into the Arabian Sea, even as regional countries seek diplomatic solutions to prevent military escalation.
US President Donald Trump warned this week that “time is running out” for Iran to return to talks on a new deal over its nuclear program.
President Trump said the naval forces deployed to Iran’s neighbors were even stronger than those sent to the coast of Venezuela before U.S. special forces abducted the South American country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, in a military raid on Caracas on January 3.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hit back at President Trump’s threat, warning that Iran’s military is ready to “put its finger on the trigger.” He added that there would be an “immediate and strong response” to any new attack by the United States.
This escalation comes seven months after US bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities during Tehran’s 12-day war with Israel last year. In retaliation, Iran attacked Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is used by U.S. forces. During the war with Iran, Iran attacked several Israeli cities with missiles.
Earlier this month, President Trump told Iranian protesters clashing with security forces that “help” was on the way, while threatening to bomb Iran. But he later withdrew his warning and appeared to accept assurances from the Iranian government that the arrested protesters would not be executed.
As Iran and the United States appear to be heading toward a new military escalation, the key demands from both sides appear to be the same as they have been for years.
Unpack what they are.
What the US wants from Iran
Historically, the United States has imposed sanctions on Iran for a variety of reasons. The reasons range from punishment for the 1979 hostage crisis (when students occupied the U.S. embassy with staff there after the Iranian revolution) to alleged human rights concerns for Iranians.
But for the past two decades, U.S. pressure on Iran, including through crippling economic sanctions that have decimated Iran’s middle class, has focused primarily on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
nuclear development program
The United States and some Western allies maintain that Iran’s program is aimed at building nuclear weapons, even though Tehran insists it is only developing a civilian program to meet its energy needs.
Under the nuclear deal Iran reached with the United States during the Obama administration, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran caps its uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent and its enriched uranium stockpile at 300 kilograms (660 pounds). This was enough for Iran to use in a nuclear power plant, but not enough for a weapon. In return, the United States lifted most of the sanctions it had previously imposed on Iran.
Once uranium is enriched to 60%, it is believed to be ready for development as a weapon. At 90 percent, it is fully considered weapons grade.
However, in May 2018, during his first term as president, President Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran. Iran, along with European countries, Russia, and China, which are co-signatories to the Obama deal, appear to be trying to hold out for the time being. But Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, kept most of Trump’s sanctions in place even though he was Obama’s vice president.
In his second term as president, Trump has further stepped up economic coercion against Iran, which has also begun rapidly enriching uranium.
In May 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that Iran had a stockpile of more than 400 kg (880 lb) of 60% enriched uranium. Weapons require uranium enriched to at least 90 percent, but no non-nuclear weapon state is known to maintain uranium enrichment levels as high as 60 percent.
The United States and Israel cited the IAEA warning as justification for bombing Iran in June.
Christopher Featherstone, an associate lecturer in political science at York University, told Al Jazeera: “There has been a consistent lobbying group that argues that Iran achieving nuclear weapons capability is a tremendous threat to the United States and the world as a whole, and the U.S. government knows that this concern is widespread in the United States.”
The United States currently requires:
Iran must not produce nuclear weapons and must even abandon civilian nuclear development. Iran must not enrich uranium at all, even to very low levels that are useless for military purposes. Iran must hand over the enriched uranium it already has.
ballistic missile
During the June war, more than 1,000 Iranians were killed by Israeli bombs and missiles. However, the number of Israelis killed in Iran’s retaliatory strikes was much lower, at 32, although Tehran’s ballistic missiles frequently breached Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome and struck several cities.
Since then, U.S. and Israeli concerns about Iranian ballistic missiles have grown. Iran’s Emad, Khorramshahr, Ghadr, Sezir, and Soumar ballistic and cruise missiles have a range of 1,700 km to 2,500 km (1,056-1,553 miles).
This puts Israel and all US military bases in the Middle East within range of these missiles.
The United States currently requires:
Iran must limit the number and range of its ballistic missiles.
regional influence
The United States’ third major demand involves Iranian influence in the region, tied together through alliances with governments, religious movements, and armed resistance groups.
That so-called “axis of resistance” has been receiving body blows over the past two years. In Syria, the regime of close partner Bashar al-Assad collapsed in December 2024. In Lebanon, Israel destroyed Hezbollah’s leadership. Meanwhile, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen have also been at war since 2023.
Yet many of these and other groups that Iran has traditionally supported remain active and alive. For example, earlier this week, Iraq-based Kataib Hezbollah warned of “all-out war” if the United States attacked Iran.
The United States demands:
Iran must cut off its support for and ties to armed resistance groups throughout the region.
What Iran wants from the US
Meanwhile, Iran has its own demands on the United States.
economic sanctions
U.S. sanctions, first imposed on Iran in 1979, have become increasingly severe in recent years, causing shortages, inflation and economic decline.
After President Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018, Iran’s oil exports fell by 60 to 80 percent, depriving Tehran of tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue.
The currency has plummeted this week, hitting an all-time low of 1.5 million rials to the dollar, leading to soaring inflation and soaring prices Iran has to pay for everything it imports.
As a result, Iran’s middle class has declined dramatically in recent years.
Iran demands:
The United States must end economic sanctions, including secondary sanctions that effectively force other countries to do business with Tehran.
nuclear development program
Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is essentially civilian.
But since last year’s joint attack by Israel and the United States and the reimposition of sanctions on Tehran by the United Nations and European countries in recent months, the country’s hardliners have been pressuring the government to move toward building a nuclear bomb instead.
Although the Iranian establishment has not officially changed its position on the issue, it hopes to:
Iran will continue its nuclear program, albeit with some restrictions. Iran will be able to continue enriching uranium, albeit with some restrictions. New understanding before allowing IAEA inspectors to enter the country. Iran believes last year’s IAEA report on enriched uranium was designed to give the United States and Israel legitimacy for the attack.
ballistic missile
Iran believes ballistic missiles provide much-needed protection against threats in the region, especially Israel.
The ability of these missiles to strike Israeli cities and reach U.S. military bases in the region would give the Iranian government leverage.
Iran wants:
The maintenance of the ballistic missile development program will be permitted.
regional influence
Iran’s alliances and partnerships in the region are a complex mix of ideological affiliations, political commitments, including political commitment to the Palestinian cause, and strategic calculations.
With the loss of al-Assad as an ally, Hezbollah was weakened. However, in December 2024, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei hinted at the Iranian government’s beliefs:
How close is war?
This all depends on President Trump and how the ongoing back channel negotiations between the US and Iran progress.
US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have said they will not allow their airspace to be used for any attack against Iran. Qatar has led efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
Still, the United States is increasing its military presence off the coast of Iran. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is currently in the Arabian Sea.
For the past seven months, President Trump has been bombing Iran, including at deeply buried nuclear sites like Fordow.
President Trump has also called for dialogue, but Professor Featherstone of York University said, “It will take a huge diplomatic effort for negotiations to have any real meaning.”
Featherstone said that given President Trump’s track record of tearing apart the Obama-era nuclear deal, Iran is “unlikely to trust him as a negotiator.” “And I don’t think our European allies will want to help Trump negotiate because he’s so unpredictable and erratic.”
