TOKYO, JAPAN – JANUARY 27: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (center), Japan Ishin no Kai representative Hirofumi Yoshimura (left), and Japan Ishin no Kai co-chairman Fumitake Fujita (right) raise their hands during a campaign rally in the Akihabara area of Tokyo on January 27, 2026. The full-scale election campaign for the House of Representatives general election, which will be counted on February 8th, has begun today. (Photo provided by Tomohiro Osumi/Getty Images)
Tomohiro Osumi | Getty Images News | Getty Images
As Japan goes to the polls on February 8, voters are considering familiar concerns such as the cost of living, wages and the weak yen when casting their votes in the lower house election.
But beyond the economy, the vote is shaping up to be a test of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi himself, with analysts saying the ultra-conservative leader has effectively turned the election into a referendum on his leadership.
“She’s trying to turn it into a referendum on whether the people approve of her as prime minister,” said Kazuto Suzuki, director of the Tokyo-based think tank Institute of Geoeconomics.
Mr. Takaichi made little effort to downplay personal interests. On January 19, she said she was “staking my future as prime minister on this election” and asked voters to decide whether they wanted her to run the country.
If the LDP gains a clear majority in this election, it will be entirely due to Takaichi’s personal popularity – nothing else has changed since July, when the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the polls. ”
Christy Gobela
Japan Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies
This strategy reflects Takaichi’s high approval rating, which until recently exceeded 70%. The prime minister is trying to convert his personal popularity into votes for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, whose own approval ratings remain far lower.
Mireya Solis, director of the Center for Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, said, “(Takaichi) is betting this day on high public support and divisions among the opposition parties.”
Takaichi now heads an untested coalition government between the Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin no Kai, after ending a 26-year partnership with Komeito in October.
Although her personal evaluation remains high, the LDP’s approval rating remains at just under 30%, highlighting the gap between the leader and the party.
Jesper Coll, a professional director at Tokyo-based financial services firm Monex Group, told CNBC in December that Takaichi is an “inspiration” to both older voters and Japan’s younger generation in particular.
Coll said her personal appeal, rather than economic policy, could be decisive and could result in a landslide victory.
“Ms. Takaichi is a living example of a woman who defied all odds and rose to the top by her voice. She is self-made, comes from a normal working-class family background, has no money or Brahman, but has hard work, dedication, passion, and a will to do the right thing.”
jesper cole
Monex Group Expert Director
“Takaichi is a living example of a woman who had no money, no Brahmin, was self-made, came from a normal working-class family background, and fought her way to the top despite all adversity,” Koll said. “But it takes hard work, dedication, passion and a willingness to do the right thing.”
Others cautioned against framing the election as a direct support for the prime minister.
Associate Professor Christy Gobera of the University of Oxford said it may be “difficult” to view the vote as a referendum on Mr Takaichi, given his relatively short tenure in office.
“If the Liberal Democratic Party wins a clear majority in this election, it will be entirely due to Mr. Takaichi’s personal popularity. Nothing else has changed since July, when the Liberal Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat in the polls,” said Gobera, who is also Japan chair of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The Liberal Democratic Party’s electoral setbacks occurred under former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who held a snap election in 2024 after defeating Takaichi in the leadership race.
At this time, the party lost its majority in the House of Representatives. Ishiba subsequently resigned in September 2025 after the Liberal Democratic Party also lost its majority in the House of Councilors in July.
economic pressure
Economic pressures remain a factor for voters. Japan has endured 45 consecutive months of inflation above the Bank of Japan’s target, falling real wages and a persistently weak yen.
The most recent inflation rate was 2.1%, while full-year inflation reached 3.2%. Real wages will decrease year-on-year for 11 consecutive months in 2025, and on an annual basis, real wages have been decreasing every year since 2022.
The rise in rice prices in mid-2025 also weighed on household sentiment, contributing to the Liberal Democratic Party’s election campaign.
In 2026, the yen depreciated further, and at one point approached the 160 yen level to the dollar. While a weaker currency benefited exporters, it also increased import inflation.
Suzuki of the Institute of Geoeconomics said that while the cost of living is a key issue, voters do not seem to be directly linking cost of living pressures to Takaichi’s policies.
“[Voters]are concerned about inflation, but they seem to be downplaying it…I think most are okay with Takaichi’s coverage being expansionary,” said Ross Sharp, head of research at geopolitical risk firm GeoQuant.
Takaichi had budgeted a record $783 billion for next fiscal year, which starts April 1, on top of the $135 billion stimulus package introduced last year to help households struggling with soaring living costs.
a more unified opposition party
Despite Takaichi’s popularity, the ruling party and opposition parties are more united than in the last election.
Former coalition partner Komeito has joined forces with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition bloc in the House of Representatives, to form a new centrist coalition.
The Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Restoration Party barely maintained a majority, controlling 230 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, until the parliament was dissolved on January 23 due to a snap election. Three independent members voted alongside the Liberal Democratic Party, giving the ruling party an effective majority of just one seat.
Analysts said Komeito’s defeat could be costly, as the party has historically played an important role in mobilizing voters for the Liberal Democratic Party.
GeoQuant’s Schaap says this dynamic makes the election outcome highly uncertain.
He said a new centrist reform alliance could benefit from strengthening opposition coalitions by combining the Constitutional Democratic Party’s more realistic policy proposals with Komeito’s voter mobilization machinery.
Sharp said, “(Takaichi’s) high approval rating is significant, but cooperation with the opposition parties is also very important, and there is a possibility that cooperation among the opposition parties could overcome his high approval rating.”
“Notice the high turnout. If the turnout is high, it could be a good day for the city. If the turnout isn’t high, it’s going to be a close race.”
