Beijing
—
U.S. President Donald Trump’s unstable foreign policy, including his threat to take control of Greenland and spiraling feud with Canada, has put a dent in the long-standing alliance, leaving China with a huge opening.
Look no further than the revolving door of Western leaders hosted by Xi Jinping in recent weeks with the aim of resetting relations and deepening cooperation with the world’s second-largest economy.
The procession includes leaders from some of America’s closest traditional allies, including Britain’s Keir Starmer and Canada’s Mark Carney last month, as well as NATO ally Finland’s Petteri Olpo. French President Emmanuel Macron visited in December, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also expected to visit soon.
From Beijing’s perspective, the list is a strong sign that the days of talking about economic separation from China are coming to an end and that Western leaders are finally seeing China as a reliable partner, in contrast to the United States under President Donald Trump.
The visiting leaders hailed relations with China as key to international stability and their own national security, but this is in sharp contrast to the recent consensus among G7 leaders that China is a challenger to the rules-based international order.
And in wide-ranging conversations at gatherings such as the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Western leaders have openly acknowledged that the U.S.-backed post-1945 order is being overturned, a view not entirely out of step with China’s.
Jin Kangrong, an international relations expert at Renmin University in Beijing, said in a recent analysis that the European Union “has been really bullied by the United States. It’s human nature to seek external support when cornered. That’s why Europe is actually open to the idea of strengthening ties with China.”
Chinese foreign policy thinkers have few illusions that U.S. allies are seeking to purge their ongoing list of concerns about China, from trade to human rights to security, or to begin a total shift toward China at the expense of relations with the United States.
But as leader Xi Jinping continues to push for a more China-friendly world, Beijing appears well aware of the potential huge benefits to be gained from the seismic shifts underway.
This is especially true when it comes to ensuring that its objectives of dominating high-tech sectors and expanding global trade, influence, and military power are achieved with less resistance.
Recent diplomatic parades in China’s capital have already provided an opportunity to mend relations with major Western economies.
Carney’s visit, the first by a Canadian prime minister in 2017, eased harsh tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles that Canada had imposed in line with the United States in exchange for easing barriers on Canadian agricultural products.
Separately, the Chinese government and the European Union reached a deal last month to replace tariffs on Chinese-made EVs with a promise to sell them at the lowest prices, easing longstanding friction over European concerns that artificially cheap cars from China, the overwhelming leader in global production, would devastate the domestic auto industry.
Mr Starmer, who was the first British leader to visit in eight years, praised Britain’s business opportunities in China, days after the government gave the green light to China’s controversial plans to build a “giant” embassy near London’s financial district.
Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, said there was a “pragmatism” at play in European leaders’ recent diplomacy with China.
“Distrust of China remains strong, especially over China’s support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine… (but) European countries cannot ignore China, especially if the United States is becoming a ‘rogue’ in their eyes.”
European governments have increased scrutiny of China’s role in areas ranging from communications networks and critical infrastructure to education in recent years, following U.S. directives to restrict sales of advanced semiconductor technology over national security concerns.
They are also increasingly alarmed by China’s large trade surpluses and grappling with ways to protect their own industries, which some analysts say face an existential threat from an influx of heavily subsidized Chinese goods. (During a visit to China in December, President Macron said he had threatened to impose tariffs on the EU if the trade surplus was not addressed.)
It remains to be seen to what extent the EU and its member states will downplay these concerns or change their policy direction towards China (which the EU describes as an “economic competitor and systemic rival”) in the face of Trump’s repeated tariff threats and shake-up of NATO.
European leaders, including Mr Starmer, who were pushing for stronger ties between Britain and China before Mr Trump’s election, have argued there is no need to do so at the expense of security.
And the EU appears to be keeping its foot on the pedal. After tightening its screening of foreign investments late last year, the company announced new proposals last month to phase out parts and equipment from “high-risk” suppliers in key sectors expected to impact Chinese telecoms giant Huawei. Addressing trade surpluses and reducing China’s dependence on critical minerals also remain high on the EU’s agenda.
Still, voices within China are optimistic.
“Under the leadership of the United States, some Western countries are attempting and insisting on collective confrontation and decoupling from China,” Wang Wen, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said in a recent commentary, referring to efforts to decouple supply chains from China.
“However, reality has repeatedly proven that ‘decoupling theory’ and the ‘new Cold War’ are not only unpopular, but also difficult to truly implement.”
Other China analysts have suggested that President Trump’s efforts to withdraw the United States from more than 20 UN bodies and establish a parallel “peace commission” will only make Europe need China more as an international counterweight.
“To maintain the multilateral system,[Europe]may need to compromise with China on trade and economic issues,” said Weichian Ye, a researcher at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, in his analysis, pointing to areas such as tariffs, technology access restrictions, and the stalled China-EU investment agreement.
Nevertheless, Beijing has pushed back against rhetoric that it aims to “exploit” the rift between the United States and its allies. Instead, they are positioning the warming of relations as proof of the attractiveness of their market and vision for the world.
“This is an inevitable outcome of China’s development, which benefits the world and continues to bring stability and certainty to the international community,” an editorial in state media Global Times said last month.
Chinese analysts also point out that as part of this realization, the United States itself is exacerbating friction with China. The two countries reached an agreement last fall to ease trade tensions. That came after the Chinese government used its trump card to halt the flow of rare earth minerals, awakening the world to China’s vast control over the supply chain.
More importantly for Beijing, the United States has moved away from framing China as an ideological challenger and turning it into a mere economic and strategic competitor.
This change is consistent with China’s broader vision for the world order. A world order no longer dominated by what we see as American values and alliances, one in which countries calculate based on shared economic and strategic interests rather than bound together by ideological or security blocs.
And while European voices acknowledge that a “new world order” is taking shape, Beijing wants to frame its own vision of that order as one whose time has come.
“It is more important than these countries choosing China,” said an editorial in the Global Times. “And it also details how they chose to follow the trends of the times.”
