The oil tanker “Grinch” (R), suspected of belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet, was spotted off the coast of Martigues near the port of Marseille-Fos on January 25, 2026, under surveillance by the French Navy.
Thibault Moritz | AFP | Getty Images
President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-India trade deal on Monday that he said includes a commitment for India to stop buying Russian crude oil and possibly buy it from the U.S. and Venezuela, but data shows a shadow fleet of tankers transporting sanctioned crude continues to unload at Indian ports.
Ship tracking from global data analytics firm Kpler shared with CNBC shows four tankers linked to Russia’s shadow fleet either offloading or in the process of offloading sanctioned oil at Indian ports. Nixora unloads Ural at Paradip refinery. Tiburon unloads Ural at Vadinar refinery. Kupler said the Seasons I was being tracked outside Vadinar on Tuesday morning, but had not yet been unloaded.
In recent months, the world’s shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil, estimated to number as many as 1,400 ships, has evaded a growing U.S. crackdown on Venezuelan and Iranian oil and European intervention over the growing number of stateless tankers loading Russian crude.
A recent Lloyd’s List analysis of the world’s shadow fleet following the US military action in Venezuela found that at least five of the approximately 50 tankers filled with Venezuelan oil had successful automatic identification systems (AIS) and completed delivery to China, suggesting that “enforcement pressure has not yet taken effect.”
The United States recently completed its first sale of Venezuelan crude oil on the legal oil market.
Sanctioned Russian crude oil also faces increased enforcement measures. France recently seized the tanker Grinch, which left Murmansk earlier this month with Russian oil. The French came on board to check the ship’s flag, assisted by British tracking and surveillance. The flag of the Comoros Islands was considered false. The seizure was the first example of an EU-UK plan to thwart Russia’s shadow fleet. The sanctions and seizure of Russia’s Shadow Fleet are part of an effort to reduce Russia’s energy revenues and reduce Russia’s ability to wage the war in Ukraine.
India’s imports of Russian oil reached record levels this year.
“In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia accounted for 33% of the country’s total seaborne oil imports and 25% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports,” said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Vimco. “According to US President Donald Trump, a new trade deal between the US and India could end that trade.”
But Kremlin officials pushed back, telling reporters they had not officially heard from India that the government would halt its oil purchases.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also yet to publicly confirm the terms of the trade deal announced by President Trump, although Indian officials have said an announcement is coming. President Trump’s announcement of the trade deal comes days after the EU and India signed a major trade deal that eliminates tariffs on many items over the years.
The Trump administration has been pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil during the trade war, with President Trump saying on Monday that India should buy oil from either the United States or Venezuela. Rasmussen said that even if it stopped importing Russian crude, it could buy more oil from the Persian Gulf instead.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, up to two-thirds of India’s crude oil and petroleum products imports arrived from the Persian Gulf. According to Vimco, these crude oil imports will fall by 45% in 2025.
Rasmussen said he did not expect Russian oil exports to fall by the same amount, as Russia would likely aim to find new buyers even if it demanded higher rebates from buyers of Russian crude. Shadow fleets often have to be sold at a discount, and that discount is likely to increase further as global enforcement measures tighten. Russian crude already trades at a lower price than crude oil sold on the open market because of sanctions.
Kevin Book, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners, said if India closes the door on Russian crude, it would give more market power to other buyers of last resort. “If that happens, Russia’s income could be on the downside. Barrels generally find buyers. The question is price.”
But some analysts have warned that a shrinking Russian oil market could make it harder for India’s shadow fleet to find additional jobs.
“The only major country that can buy Russian oil is China, and China may already have all the Russian oil it wants,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
As oil flows from Venezuela to supply the black fleet decline and the Indian market may close, many of these vessels could be laid up or eventually scrapped, Lipow said.
But Book says the world’s shadow fleet is fungible, and if there is an opportunity to transport sanctioned oil, owners of these vessels will take advantage of it, citing Venezuela as an example. “Shadow fleets are moving from one demand area to another, and it is expected that shadow fleets will continue to be used as long as sanctions against other major producing and exporting countries remain in place,” he said. “Tankers that were engaged in the Venezuelan trade will now enter the Iranian and Russian trade.”
The United States announced the seizure of Vera 1 due to sanctions violations. After recently being reflagged in Russia, the ship, known as Marinella, was captured in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro.
Source: @US_EUCOM | US Coast Guard | Via X
Despite a crackdown on sanctioned oil, Russia is rapidly expanding its shadow fleet and flagging ships that once transported Venezuelan oil. In December, 17 sanctioned ships were re-visited in Russia. One of the tankers seized by the US during the Venezuelan oil blockade was a Russian ship that had recently refueled.
Oil analysts say discounts on sanctioned crude create a market separate from traditional shipboard oil trading, and that all enforcement measures and tariffs continue to change the economics of crude oil shipments. “The whole trade between countries is important,” Book said. “We are seeing oil flows being relocated by sanctions and then relocated again by tariffs. There will be logistics costs associated with these movements.”
Higher costs come from transporting oil over long distances and through intermediaries to avoid sanctions. A prime example cited by Book is the shipment of Russian oil, which used to go to Europe but now often goes to China.
Book explained that the economics of the oil refining business, where profit margins are tight, make discounting approved crude advantageous. “Discounts are very attractive to refiners,” he said, meaning that barrels of sanctioned crude oil moved by dark fleets “will find a home. As long as sanctions are in place, there will be sanctions avoidance and workarounds.” Book added.
These workarounds will ultimately benefit China, which is a major buyer of Russian and Iranian oil. “The more scratches a barrel has, the more profits there are for buyers and the more discounts there are for sellers. China will probably continue to look for defective discount barrels,” Book said.
Marinella oil tanker seen at Burghead, Scotland on January 14, 2026. The Marinella oil tanker, formerly known as Vera 1, entered British waters following a request from the US to replenish “essential supplies”. The Russian-flagged tanker was seized by the U.S. military between Iceland and Scotland on January 7, 2026, on suspicion of violating sanctions by transporting oil destined for Venezuela, Russia, and Iran.
Peter Summers | Getty Images
Lloyd’s Shadow Fleet Tracking, which covers around 1,400 vessels primarily transporting sanctioned Russian oil, shows an increasing flow of stateless tankers laden with Russian oil anchored in Malaysian waters. The increase continues despite the government’s promise to shut down. Malaysia has a trade agreement with the United States that restricts transactions with sanctioned companies.
Maritime information from Kpler shows an increasing number of vessels are conducting ship-to-ship transfers as part of an effort to create a deadlock in transporting sanctioned oil due to pressure from the United States to broker Venezuelan oil deals and existing sanctions against Russia and Iran.
“It’s clear that there are still avid buyers of this sanctioned oil, namely China and India,” said Jean-Charles Gordon, vice president of maritime and logistics at Kpler. “China consumes half of Iran’s oil.”
According to Kpler data, in 2025, 251 vessels were carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, of which 217 (86%) were subject to sanctions, making them a target of government targets for transporting illicit oil. The remaining 34 vessels are part of an active shadow fleet, transporting sanctioned crude oil through deceptive practices. The majority (96%) of these vessels engaged in underground ship-to-ship transfers. 77% falsified the vessel’s location. Additionally, 72% had their vessel location beacons turned off for extended periods of time.
According to Kupler, in 2025 there were 510 ships carrying sanctioned Russian oil. Of these, 305 ships, or 59% of the fleet, were sanctioned. Another 86 ships, roughly 17% of the fleet, are considered the “shadow fleet.” These vessels also engaged in practices such as spoofing their location and extending AIS gaps.
“The dark fleet isn’t going away; it’s becoming more offshore, more fragmented and more aggressive,” Gordon said.
