As the prospect of conflict between the United States and Iran looms, analysts in Israel are questioning the country’s ability to decide the outcome of a conflict in a region it deemed on the brink of domination just a few months ago.
“(Israel’s) opposition parties are accusing[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin]Netanyahu of bowing to[US President Donald]Trump and ending the Gaza war too soon,” Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg said. “(Israel) has been kicked out of Lebanon, and its freedom to operate inside Syria has been suspended. All that is left is the freedom to kill Palestinians. And with Qatar, Turkiye and Egypt now involved in Gaza over Israel’s objections, that won’t be allowed for long.”
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While senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are in direct contact with the Trump administration over a possible attack on Iran, analysts say it is becoming increasingly clear that Israel’s ability to shape regional developments is diminishing.
After two years of genocide in Gaza, in which Israel killed more than 71,800 Palestinians, the United States now appears to have pushed Israel to the side, leading Israel to oppose Turkiye and Qatar’s participation in the council that oversees the Gaza administration.
In Syria, Israel’s ambitions to undermine the new government of President Ahmed al-Shalah also appear to be at odds with President Trump, who has been actively pushing Netanyahu’s government to reach a deal with Damascus. The US continues to play a decisive role in determining Israel’s actions in Lebanon, and any potential conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is said to depend on the US government’s green light.
Many say it is unclear what influence Israel will be able to wield over U.S. actions in Iran, and there is even a possibility that the U.S. may enter into negotiations despite Israeli concerns.
“There are concerns that Donald Trump will not attack Iran, which continues to endanger Israel, and instead remain in power by acting as a peacemaker and negotiating a favorable outcome for him,” Mitchell Barak, a political pollster and former aide to Prime Minister Netanyahu since the early 1990s, told Al Jazeera from West Jerusalem. “He’s a deal-breaker. That’s the way he is. It’s going to be like Gaza. Israel will lose control to the United States after securing its final victory. America’s interests under the Trump administration will not necessarily align with ours.”
“Big Bad Wolf”
While analysts’ expectations that Netanyahu could influence President Trump’s actions in Iran may be limited, their sense that a new war would buy the Israeli prime minister relief from his current difficulties seems universal.
“Iran is Israel’s ‘big bad wolf,'” Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg said of a geopolitical adversary that many in Israel believe exists solely to ensure Israel’s destruction.
Mekelberg added that the war with Iran is useful in distracting attention from Netanyahu’s domestic issues, such as the investigation into government failures related to Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, his attempts to weaken judicial oversight, and his ongoing corruption trial.
“There’s a saying in Hebrew that says, ‘A righteous man gets others to do his work.’ I’ve never said that Prime Minister Netanyahu is just, but he’s definitely keen on getting others to do his job,” Mekelberg said.
fear of war
It is unclear how much the public is willing to engage in a confrontation with Iran.
Israel was able to inflict significant damage on Iran during the conflict that began last June. However, Iran has also been able to repeatedly breach Israel’s defenses, making it clear that Israelis are not safe from the state’s wars in the region.
Goldberg said the threat, not the reality, of conflict with Iran also served the prime minister’s objectives. “Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn’t need to go to war. He doesn’t need to do anything other than survive, which he has proven to be good at,” the analyst said, noting the lack of a credible political rival and the risk that an actual war would highlight Israel’s diplomatic weaknesses in its relationship with the United States.
“There’s a joke phrase that’s become popular among those who resist Prime Minister Netanyahu’s judicial reforms: ‘This time he’s done,'” Goldberg said. “Prime Minister Netanyahu is by no means done. He has committed genocide, and the only thing the Israeli people can oppose is his control. Now, Prime Minister Netanyahu is losing military and diplomatic influence across the region, and few people realize it. I can’t even imagine this becoming ‘it’.”
