Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight ahead of a busy Premier League weekend.
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Having been active and punting in the Premier League for over 15 years, there are some go-to betting strategies that have proven to be very sustainable if executed correctly. And one of them is respect when Sean Dyche teams are doing well.
Once Dyche’s message gets through and the team fully commits to a physical, disciplined, no-nonsense approach, performance fluctuations disappear and become consistent. This is an important aspect of finding a reliable team to bet on.
In their last six games in the Premier League and Europa League, Nottingham Forest have conceded just two goals and are looking like a typical die-hard side.
This is going to be a scary match with a lot of duels and a lot of set pieces – and this is where his team will thrive.
Leeds are also good at playing this style, but when the season starts again they start to feel a little nervous. A similar style is being considered here, but Forest have more experience and the quality of players and manager to execute a winning game plan. Mori stands out with a no bet draw on Sky Bet on November 8th.
Score prediction: 1-2
Manchester United vs. Tottenham, Saturday 12:30pm
A record number of goals have come from dead ball situations this season, corners are an extremely dangerous path to goal and a centre-back with aerial superiority has never been more valuable from a betting perspective. But one of the best set-piece attackers in world football is barely on the pitch for most of the match.
However, Harry Maguire is back in the Manchester United squad and is looking fit in either box. Since his return, he has registered four shots in just 281 minutes and has an expected goals average of 0.62, which is of course a huge achievement for a centre-half. This includes hitting the crossbar against Manchester City.
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Maguire has value and it’s in the price of his shots, most notably his headers costing 10/11 on Sky Bet. Over the past six Premier League seasons, only Virgil van Dijk has scored a higher rate of headers than Maguire (one every 177 minutes).
If this bet is 10/11 or higher, it is automatically back if Manchester United are favorites to win the match.
Score prediction: 2-2
Arsenal vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
As with most of Arsenal’s home games against non-elite opponents, this is another challenging betting heat, with the Gunners winning odds of 1/5 on Sky Bet. 2.5 Over/Under 2.5 Other traditional markets such as the 2.5 line are also priced correctly, so we need to get creative with the angle here.
Try Hume’s committed foul price is worth a look at Sky Bet’s 2+ even.
Hume has committed 16 fouls in his last eight starts, and has been able to keep his fouls down by changing positions, averaging a perfect performance from those two foul lines. He plays more as an inverted wide midfielder than a full-back and will be a menace on the foul line in a clash with the Gunners.
Score prediction: 2-0
Bournemouth v Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm
Sky Bet is a bet that will be cashed in each of the last five head-to-head meetings, with Bournemouth committing the most fouls in each half of 11/10.
It’s no fluke.
The game was consistently foul-heavy due to tactical clashes between the managers, with Unai Emery’s Villa content to play quickly and vertically, forcing Bournemouth to defend passively, breaking down their play and ultimately forcing them to stop transitions with fouls. Looking at the head-to-head results, the numbers support the fact that Bournemouth average 17 fouls per game, while Aston Villa only commit 10.
Despite being at a disadvantage, supporting Bournemouth to win with more fouls in each half seems like a smart way to play a matchup that tells the same story.
Score prediction: 1-2
Burnley v West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Crisencio Somerville has improved under coach Nuno Espirito Santo, not only with his overall attacking ability but also with his ability to intimidate defenders.
The only way to stop him is to commit a foul that leads to a card. Under Nuno, Somerville have drawn 12 cards with opponents, the most of any Premier League player this season. Stopping him will be Kyle Walker, a player who has already been carded eight times this season. Walker Card’s 100/30 with Sky Bet is very generous.
Score prediction: 0-2 | Jones knows best bet: Kyle Walker is carded (100/30 at Sky Bet)
Fulham v Everton, Saturday 3pm
James Garner showed off by making two or more shots at 11/8 on Sky Bet.
Garner’s development this season has been a real success story for manager David Moyes, who has pushed him higher up the midfield, allowing him to not only recycle possession but also get into shooting positions. The raw numbers tell the story, as no Everton player has attempted more shots than Garner (39) this season, highlighting just how license-heavy his role is. This matchup also follows that trend. He had four shots in the comeback game against Fulham.
Score prediction: 1-1
Wolves v Chelsea, Saturday 3pm
Yerson Mosquera is certainly in the spotlight for Wolves at 16/1 on Sky Bet against a Chelsea side that continues to look surprisingly vulnerable from dead-ball situations.
Only Crystal Palace have conceded more expected goals from set-pieces than Chelsea this season (12.67 x G), but the 10 actual goals resulting from these scenarios highlights that this is a structural problem rather than bad luck.
And it hasn’t been resolved even with a change of manager.
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Chelsea head coach Liam Rosenior had some standout moments before, during and after his team’s loss to Arsenal in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg
That will be music to the ears of a Wolves side who are unapologetically set-piece oriented under Rob Edwards, with a delivery and movement clearly trained on the training ground. Even under these circumstances, Mosquera’s presence is increasing. He has come close in recent weeks, taking 11 shots in his last six games, but had the very unfortunate misfortune of hitting the post against Bournemouth last weekend.
Score prediction: 1-1 | Best bet Jones knows: Yerson Mosquera to score (16/1 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Brentford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Rico Henry, who is carded at 9/2 on Sky Bet, looks like a great angle to attack with his side worsening in terms of fouls in this match. Henry will likely spend a lot of time against Anthony Elanga, and this matchup tends to end with the defender risking a card.
Since the start of last season, Elanga has drawn 20 yellow cards from opponents and uses his pace and direct running to force final challenges when moving the ball in front of opponents. The timing also seems good. Elanga showed signs of form again last time out against Manchester City, scoring a fine goal and posing a real threat in transition, often playing one-on-one with the full-backs.
Score prediction: 2-1
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Crystal Palace are without a win in their last 12 games in all competitions, but we all know their current predicament. But Brighton is also in a pretty depressing situation. They’re finally starting to prove me right about how overrated a team they are. Just one win in 11 games means Fabian Hürzeler is currently facing a lot of pressure.
And this is exactly the type of opponent they struggle with. Their record of low blocks, long and fast vertical soccer, and direct confrontations with their rivals has resulted in just two wins out of the past 13 games. Looking at the odds for the match, Brighton are almost evenly placed, but the market forces are also turning cold on this Brighton team, which is a huge hint that Hürzeler will struggle to turn things around.
However, trusting Palace is also not viable. So a draw back at 13/5 on Sky Bet makes a lot of sense.
Score prediction: 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool 11/8 with Sky Bet? Register.
Since the draw with Leeds, their defensive numbers have returned to last season’s levels and they are conceding very little to their opponents when it comes to big chances. Through their last 13 games, they have conceded just 0.75 goals per game, compared to an expected goal conceded of 0.8 per game. Arne Slot fixed the leak.
However, Man City’s defensive structure and play out of possession are quietly a cause for concern. They are showing signs of the same problems as last season, with teams finding it too easy to break through City’s midfield and defense and create big chances.
In the six games since the draw with Chelsea, which have been won by more than a third of a margin, they have often been atrocious defensively, facing 1.6 expected goals per 90 and 4.8 shots on target per 90.
If City don’t tighten up, Liverpool could run riot. So having a home team handicap market of -1 at 7/2 on Sky Bet is a nice way to encourage slot teams to win by more than two goals.
Score Prediction: 4-1 | Jones Knows Best Bet: Liverpool -1 Handicap (7/2 at Sky Bet)
Jones knows the best bet…
1pt for double: Kyle Walker scores 1pt for Cards & Liverpool-1 Handicap vs Man City (18/1, Sky Bet) Yerson Mosquera against Wolves (16/1, Sky Bet)
