Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia has significantly reduced its numbers on the international stage.
The collapse of the country that US President Ronald Reagan once called an “evil empire” dates back to 1991, and the Kremlin’s territory, financial power and influence around the world has declined.
However, Russia maintained its influence in certain important areas.
Its continued status as a nuclear power, roughly on par with the United States, ensured that even a weakened Moscow would have a place at the top table of international diplomacy.
Nuclear summits allow Kremlin leaders to sit squarely across from the incumbent in the White House and decide on international security issues, just as they did in the glory days of the Cold War.
In 2010, then-U.S. President Barack Obama and temporarily empowered Russian President Dmitry Medvedev did just that, agreeing to New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), which was hailed as “historic” by the White House at the time. The New START Treaty limits both countries to a maximum of 1,550 long-range nuclear warheads that can be deployed on delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers.
But those days now appear to be over, as is the New START Treaty itself, which expires Thursday.
The abrogation of the last arms control agreement between the United States and Russia – which the US government had repeatedly accused Russia of violating by refusing to inspect its nuclear facilities – was ignored by the Trump administration, and the US president himself ignored the dire prospects of a world without nuclear restrictions.
Trump suggested in January that a “better” deal could eventually be reached, joking that “if it’s overdue, it’s overdue.”
The apparent lack of urgency in Washington stands in stark contrast to the anxiety in Moscow, where there is much lamentation and gnashing of teeth over the issue of disarmament.
As the New START treaty approaches its expiry, Medvedev, no longer president but an outspoken security official on the fringes of power, warned journalists in Moscow of the dangers of allowing the deal to lapse. He suggested it would speed up the “Doomsday Clock,” symbolizing how close humanity is to global destruction.
“I don’t want to say that this immediately means the beginning of a catastrophe or a nuclear war, but it should still alarm everyone,” Medvedev added.
The Kremlin certainly seems wary.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said proposals to extend New START have so far been met with silence from the U.S. side and risk triggering a new era of unrest.
“For the first time, the two countries with the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, the United States and Russia, will lack basic documents to establish limits and controls over these weapons,” Peskov told reporters during a recent conference call focused on nuclear issues.
“We think this is very bad for global and strategic security,” he added, echoing concerns likely shared in many parts of the world.
But the Kremlin’s expressions of concern may be more selfish and strategic than they are willing to admit.
Apart from being stripped of its disarmament platform to display one of the last remaining vestiges of Soviet-era power, Moscow now faces a potentially unfettered future of U.S. nuclear expansion.
The Trump administration, for example, has already resurfaced the concept of nuclear-armed “Trump-class” battleships, a Cold War-era policy abandoned decades ago.
The former Soviet Union may be comparable. But Russia, with an economy and defense budget a fraction of Washington’s, has virtually no hope of catching up, exacerbating the already large disparity in power and influence between the old rivals.
Of course, the United States has its own reasons for allowing nuclear arms control to lapse with Russia, not least its desire to include China, an emerging nuclear power, in future agreements.
But the expiration of New START marks the end of an era in which the United States was willing to accept nuclear restrictions, not just “superpower” arms control treaties focused solely on Moscow and Washington.
