Voters cast their votes at a polling station during the general election in Bangkok, Thailand. (Photo by Thomas De Cian/NurPhoto, Getty Images)
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Thai voters gathered in large numbers on Sunday for a general election that will be a three-way battle between conservatives, progressives and populists, with no party expected to win a clear majority and political instability expected to linger.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has prepared for a snap election in mid-December amid an escalating border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, a move analysts say is a well-timed move by the Conservative Party leader to capitalize on rising nationalism.
At the time, he had been in power less than 100 days after taking power following the ouster of Prime Minister Pethunthan Shinawatra, a populist party called the Thailand Contribution Party, over the Cambodian crisis.
Research shows that the Thai Contribution Party, backed by billionaire former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who himself went to prison days after his daughter’s release, is in the doldrums but has not escaped.
“We have done everything we can,” Anutin told reporters after voting at his Bhumjathai Party’s stronghold in Buriram, northeast of Bangkok. “We hope the public will trust us.”
However, most opinion polls during the election period led the progressive People’s Party, which has a message of structural change and reform to become Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
“This election will depend on whether Thailand can break out of its rut and break out of its political instability and ongoing economic stagnation,” said Thithinan Ponsdhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.
“Unfortunately, my tentative conclusion is that there will be no explosion.”
Hours after voting began, voters began arriving at polling stations across Bangkok, including Swat Kiatuwan, a 44-year-old office worker.
“I don’t want the same people anymore,” he said after the vote. “Voting like before won’t change anything. We’re not going anywhere.”
Voting closed at 5pm local time (10am GMT) with provisional results expected within hours.
pre-election survey
Despite winning the battle against Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and the Contribution of Thailand Party, the People’s Party may not have enough support to win a parliamentary majority on its own, raising the risk of repeating the fate of its predecessor.
A woman searches for her name on the voter registration list for the Thai general election near the parliament in Bangkok on February 8, 2026. Thais voted in an election on February 8, and although opinion polls gave a clear lead for progressive reformers, the incumbent conservative is expected to remain prime minister, deepening the country’s political impasse. (Photo by Chanakhan Raosarakham/AFP via Getty Images)
Chanakhan Raosarakham | AFP | Getty Images
In a survey conducted in the final week of the election campaign released on Sunday, the National Institute of Development Management predicted that Bhumjatai would win between 140 and 150 seats in the 500-member lower house, beating the People’s Party’s 125 to 135 seats.
The People’s Party’s predecessor, Move Forward, won the last election in 2023, but the military-appointed Senate and conservative parliamentarians prevented it from forming a government, paving the way for the Pro-Thai Party to take power.
Years of conflict between powerful royalist and conservative forces and popular pro-democracy movements have produced long periods of uncertainty punctuated by street protests, acts of violence, and military coups.
constitutional referendum
During their vote, Thai voters will also be asked whether to enact a new constitution to replace the 2017 one. The charter is a military-backed document that critics say concentrates power in undemocratic institutions, including a powerful upper house elected through an indirect election process with limited public participation.
Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the collapse of the absolute monarchy in 1932, most of which were revised after military coups.
If voters support drafting a new national charter, the new government and lawmakers can begin the reform process in parliament, and two more referendums will be needed to adopt the new constitution.
“We believe that the party that wins the next election will have a significant influence on the direction of constitutional reform, whether or not they move away from the constitution drafted by the military junta,” said Napon Jatusripitak of Thai Future, a Bangkok-based think tank.
different strategies
The rise of Bhumjaithai due to rising nationalism sparked by the Thai-Cambodian conflict, paralleling the decline of the Contribution of Thailand Party after last year’s conflict, has triggered a surge in defections and realigned political battlegrounds, including vote-rich agricultural areas.
Some political parties have responded by recruiting local celebrities, including figures from rival groups, into their fold, aiming to capture personal loyalty networks that are key to victory in the hinterland.
The reform-minded People’s Party also changed strategy, diluting the Progressive Movement’s anti-establishment stance and bringing in outside talent to convince voters it had what it takes to run the government.
Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has thrown himself into the fold, using his personal appeal to revive the once moribund Democratic Party and potentially emerging as an important force in post-election coalition talks.
