Seoul, South Korea
—
Excited young couples roam the busy convention center, trying on baby carriers, testing out strollers, and learning about the latest safety features in car seats.
The scene in Seoul in January may seem a stark contrast to South Korea’s usual headlines of plummeting birth rates and an impending demographic crisis that threatens to engulf neighboring Japan and China.
But against all odds, more babies are finally being born in South Korea. This figure has been rising slowly for more than a year, a rare piece of good news for a government that has been encouraging people to do so for more than a decade.
However, whether it can be sustained is another matter.
Participants at a baby fair in Seoul gave a nod to the government’s many initiatives, including subsidies and support programs for young parents. But they all also described how difficult it is to have children in a country with rising costs of living, a harsh work culture, deeply entrenched gender norms, and deeply conservative attitudes.
“I quit my job after I got pregnant,” said Yoon So-young, 31, who is due to give birth to her first child in March. She felt she had no other choice. “There wasn’t enough support at my workplace. Everyone quits when they get pregnant.”
Another participant, 34-year-old Park Ha-yan, is a housewife who is expecting her third child in June. “It’s all about money,” she said.
“The more children you have, the more (government) support you will receive. But the expenses will be greater…And it will continue until the children grow up, not just for one or two years, so it is definitely a burden.”
Experts also expressed caution about celebrating too soon. Some of the reasons for the increase may also suggest that it is a temporary increase.
“We’re seeing some recovery now…but our levels never recovered to pre-coronavirus levels,” said Sojung Lim, professor of Korean studies at the Korea Foundation at the State University of New York at Buffalo. “Our birth rate remains the lowest among developed countries.”
South Korea’s birth rate is finally on the rise, but will it continue?
South Korea’s birth rate (the average number of babies a woman gives birth to over her lifetime) has been steadily declining since 2015 and is now the lowest in the world.
Demographers say a society needs a birth rate of at least 2.1 to maintain a stable population without immigration. By 2023, South Korea’s birth rate had fallen to 0.721, further deepening the sense of panic that spread across the country. Former President Yoon Seok-yeol at one point called the decline in births a “national emergency.”
So it came as a surprise that in 2024, the country’s birth rate rose for the first time in nine years. It was a small increase up to 0.748, but it was enough to make people wonder, “Is this the end of the tunnel?” Has South Korea escaped its population crisis?
The country’s monthly births have increased year-on-year for 17 consecutive months, according to the latest figures released in January. This means more babies are being born each month than in the same month last year, indicating that the overall birth rate could increase for the second year in a row.
Mr Lim said there could be a variety of factors.
First of all, many people delayed marriage and childbirth during the coronavirus pandemic. Since unmarried or single mothers are still relatively rare in South Korea, “a decline in marriage means a decline in birth rates,” Lim said. She added that we could see a “post-pandemic catch-up effect” as these couples may now be moving forward with delayed plans.
Another factor may be purely demographic. The number of children born to baby boomers is “relatively large,” Lim said. In other words, the number of women in their early or mid-30s, who are now in the prime of their marriage and childbearing years, is simply increasing.
Ms. Park, a full-time housewife, cited another possible reason. This is because she noticed that many pregnant women are not giving birth to their first child, but are giving birth to their second or third child. “When you have children and raise them, you start thinking that your child should have siblings,” she suggested.
Additionally, there are government-specific policies designed to encourage procreation. Over the past decade, authorities across the country have introduced housing and childcare subsidies. Provided cash benefits to new parents. Extension of maternity and childcare leave. Launched a social campaign to encourage men to participate in household chores. Hosting date and matchmaking events to increase marriage rates. He called on companies to promote improvements in work-life balance.
To some extent, this seems to have worked.
“Compared to about 10 years ago, the atmosphere has changed and companies are providing benefits that employers should provide,” said Kim, a 30-year-old pregnant woman who CNN is identifying only by her last name for privacy reasons.
Kim added, “Until now, managers (mainly middle-aged men) had a low level of understanding about childcare leave.” “But now the atmosphere is like, “Please take it as a matter of course,” so I think the burden has eased a little.”
In South Korea, mothers are primarily the ones who take childcare leave. The law allows mothers to take up to 90 days of leave for each uncomplicated baby, and fathers are entitled to 20 days of leave.
Park Hae-in, another pregnant woman who attended the exhibition, said her decision to have another child was due to the government’s efforts.
“We see that the government is trying in different ways,” she said. “Thanks to things like government support to move to another home, I’m starting to think more positively about planning for a second child.”
Despite these advances, serious structural and societal problems remain, and most parents-to-be on CNN shared lingering concerns and anxieties.
Park Hae-in said, “There are childbirth subsidies, child allowances, diaper subsidy systems, etc., but they are often not worth the current economic situation.” “There are also a lot of restrictions when it comes to things like newborn loans.”
Kim Sung-kyung, a 34-year-old pregnant mother, said that while current subsidies are mainly targeted at low-income couples, higher-income families also need financial support to cover “very expensive” childcare costs.
In 2024, South Korea ranked as the most expensive country to raise a child, according to the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute. And there is one big factor that contributes to this cost. These are private lessons and cram schools.
The country’s education system is highly competitive, and many parents feel tremendous pressure to help their children succeed before they can walk. That means years of expensive after-school tutoring.
Additionally, there are cultural norms to contend with.
Yun, a pregnant mother who has quit her job, often feels that the public’s attitude towards her children is callous. For example, a mother can receive “a lot of negative stares” if her baby cries in public, she said.
“Caring for a baby takes a lot of effort, but when you go out, everyone seems uncomfortable and you have to constantly look out for others and balk at the thought of the baby,” she said. “Then, when you come home, your husband has to go to work and is quite tired, so you will inevitably be the one caring for him.”
“Kid-free zones” have become increasingly popular in recent years, sparking controversy among parents as businesses such as restaurants ban children from entering in the name of protecting the peace and quiet of their adult customers.
Professor Lim also questioned whether the government’s actions, which he praised as “very proactive,” were enough to address issues such as traditionally rigid views on family formation (for example, single women cannot receive IVF treatment in South Korea).
“If these structural problems are the real cause of South Korea’s ultra-low birth rate, will these government policies really help? I don’t think so,” she said.
And unless these deeper causes are addressed, the current increase in births will be “short-lived”, she warned. In a few years, the post-COVID-19 marriage boom will be behind us. The majority of women currently in their 30s will continue to age further in the future. And the birth rate, which currently looks very promising, could fall again.
Countries around the world experiencing population decline are now watching closely to see what South Korea will do next. It’s not just our Asian neighbors. Several European countries, including Italy and Spain, as well as the United States, have also experienced declining birth rates in recent years. Therefore, whether South Korea’s experience is a success or a failure, it will inform how other countries fight their own crises.
“What they have to learn from South Korea is not that we have recovered for (17) consecutive months, but why this happened to South Korea in the first place,” Lim said, adding that many countries have “similar characteristics” that suggest they will follow a similar path.
“By the time we see that birth rates have declined significantly, it may be too late.”
